Electric Vehicles are coming

[ilogikal1]

2 hours ago, Umster said:

Urban planning has never had to think about the issue with charging cars. Heck, most houses built before the 90s didn't even consider that there would be more than 1 car per household. 

 

Feel like charging points are going to be the new OpenReach/Fibre Optic. Nobody wants to dig up the roads, nobody wants to foot the bill and nobody is gonna get it right the first time around. 

 

It's either got to be rapid charging or being able to swap batteries in a car. No current practical solution that could scale comes to mind. 

 

And anything built since the 90’s seem to forget how large current cars are, so none of the parking spaces are big enough for anything to fit in anyway!

 

 

There’s an obvious and very simple solution of course...

 

 

...simply devise a fuel source that is actually accessible, practical and environmentally friendly. How hard can that be??

 

 

 

[nissanman312]

1 hour ago, ilogikal1 said:

 

And anything built since the 90’s seem to forget how large current cars are, so none of the parking spaces are big enough for anything to fit in anyway!

 

 

There’s an obvious and very simple solution of course...

 

 

...simply devise a fuel source that is actually accessible, practical and environmentally friendly. How hard can that be??

 

 

 

 

Like this

[ilogikal1]

3 minutes ago, nissanman312 said:

Like this

Yeah just like that. But you can't promote the use of CO2 for anything... it's evil stuff that's killing the world, remember. 

[davey_83]

Soulless yes but I know which I'd rather have 

 

[The G Man]

Jay Leno hit the head on the nail  when he talked about the relationship with man and the horse re the onset of the automobile, all types of woe were eulogised as to the end of the horse.

 

what happened instead was the horse moved on to leisure activities and didn’t disappear.  Instead it moved onto a thing that was used at the weekends.

 

Same thing will happen with the onset of electric cars and the same consequence of the combustion engine, it’ll be used For leisure.  We’ll all be in EV’s in 5-10 years 

[GranTurismoEra]

Bold statement to say all. There are many that wont touch electric. When will it be affordable for the layman... Definitely not within 10 years.

[coldel]

The numbers simply don't stack to say all will be in EVs in 5 years, let alone 10 (but appreciate it was more of a throw away comment). Given that there are around 2.5m new car sales each year, and 40m cars in the UK. That EV currently accounts for around 2.5% share of new car sales, up from 1.5% last year so they are at the bottom of the S curve of adoption into the market, we should see an acceleration I would say in about 5-6 years as other manufacturers get on board and infrastructure speeds up for charging. 

 

Even if we assumed from next year all new car sales are EV (totally unrealistic) it would take around 15 years or so to completely overhaul the UK market into EV. The more realistic scenario is that EV share will grow to 10-20% over the next 5 years or so then hit that steep adoption curve as taxation increases on ICE and government push road users out of the ICE segment altogether. 

 

If I were to take a punt, I would say a third to half the cars on the road will be EV by 2030 give or take. Clearly if Tesla/VW/Ford could produce a Leaf price option with real world range of more than the end of the road, that would move things along a lot faster.

Edited October 31, 2019 by coldel

[formatzero]

2 hours ago, coldel said:

The numbers simply don't stack to say all will be in EVs in 5 years, let alone 10 (but appreciate it was more of a throw away comment). Given that there are around 2.5m new car sales each year, and 40m cars in the UK. That EV currently accounts for around 2.5% share of new car sales, up from 1.5% last year so they are at the bottom of the S curve of adoption into the market, we should see an acceleration I would say in about 5-6 years as other manufacturers get on board and infrastructure speeds up for charging. 

 

Even if we assumed from next year all new car sales are EV (totally unrealistic) it would take around 15 years or so to completely overhaul the UK market into EV. The more realistic scenario is that EV share will grow to 10-20% over the next 5 years or so then hit that steep adoption curve as taxation increases on ICE and government push road users out of the ICE segment altogether. 

 

If I were to take a punt, I would say a third to half the cars on the road will be EV by 2030 give or take. Clearly if Tesla/VW/Ford could produce a Leaf price option with real world range of more than the end of the road, that would move things along a lot faster.

Already owning an electric I agree with a lot of what you say,although I find the uptake in my area has increased quite a bit in the last year.This of course could be due to the fact that for now, in Scotland public charging is free.Regarding the range issue Kia have gone some way with this in the E-niro but battery tech needs a big push.They are currently trying to develop carbon based battery packs which should charge as quick as filling a diesel but I suspect this will take a long time.

[coldel]

1 hour ago, formatzero said:

Already owning an electric I agree with a lot of what you say,although I find the uptake in my area has increased quite a bit in the last year.This of course could be due to the fact that for now, in Scotland public charging is free.Regarding the range issue Kia have gone some way with this in the E-niro but battery tech needs a big push.They are currently trying to develop carbon based battery packs which should charge as quick as filling a diesel but I suspect this will take a long time.

Yep, the constant is the new car sales, unless there is a dramatic change in new car sales in the UK this will be one of the main drivers behind dictating how long EV adoption takes. Interestingly the view of seeing more EVs is a bit of a fallacy, in the same way when people on here buy a 350z they then see more of them around than previously  although as the numbers say in terms of market share you are likely to see an EV every 100th car rather than every 150th car a couple of years ago.

[Umster]

Surely soon enough most car manufacturers will be coerced into producing only hybrid and/or electric cars. 

 

Agreed though, electric cars just aren't cheap enough, productive enough or practical enough for the common person to purchase. Nobody (with a sane mind and some fiscal responsibility) would throw £20k+ at a car which can't do long distances, needs to be near a plug socket etc. 

 

The whole hoo haa about no diesels in the City Centres is gonna be interesting; Birmingham, Manchester, Leeds, Liverpool, Glasgow aren't London. Only London is really running an organised public transport infrastructure so only they can push people off the road and into buses. I'm pretty sure the big issue atm is bus routes being cut around the country and train lines being at capacity. 

 

Either way, doubt the cities citizens will let the government shove electric motors down their throats - when the people have a choice, think Brexit and when people don't have a choice, think Extinction Rebellion. 

 

But mehh let's see how it goes. 

Edited October 31, 2019 by Umster

[formatzero]

Yeh I get the seeing more of them around cos you have one bit,however my seeing more of them is due to difficulty accessing the charging points which previously I could do easily.Not only full electrics but hybrids like Mitsubushi, Volvo, Honda and Audi.In the summer season it was worse as there were a load of Tesla,s up here  and not many Superchargers so they take a fair bit longer to charge.Maybe more to do with the roll out of the charging system which is not quite up to speed yet.

[GranTurismoEra]

On 31/10/2019 at 11:30, formatzero said:

Already owning an electric I agree with a lot of what you say,although I find the uptake in my area has increased quite a bit in the last year.This of course could be due to the fact that for now, in Scotland public charging is free.Regarding the range issue Kia have gone some way with this in the E-niro but battery tech needs a big push.They are currently trying to develop carbon based battery packs which should charge as quick as filling a diesel but I suspect this will take a long time.

Without Scottish type incentives I see the uptake being very linear slow and steady. I still believe taxes will be imposed on EV at some point once the number of ICE vehicle sales diminish or VED takes a hit

[formatzero]

3 hours ago, GranTurismoEra said:

Without Scottish type incentives I see the uptake being very linear slow and steady. I still believe taxes will be imposed on EV at some point once the number of ICE vehicle sales diminish or VED takes a hit

You are right about the taxes being imposed,i believe the goverment are already looking into how to fill the black hole which will be created if they stop getting the big receipts from fuel duty.

[coldel]

I would guess it will move to a tax-per-mile approach - reduce congestion on the roads, push people into public transport, you pay for how far you go if you do use a car. That would make the most sense.

[ilogikal1]

9 hours ago, coldel said:

I would guess it will move to a tax-per-mile approach - reduce congestion on the roads, push people into public transport, you pay for how far you go if you do use a car. That would make the most sense.

And that’s also why it’ll never happen that way 

 

Blanket tax based on what day of the week the offside headlight bulb was produced is more likely.

Of course plug in hybrids will be more taxable than full electric cars, what with the polluting combustion engine component. Which will force the hand to admit plug-in electric isn’t as environmental/sustainable as once believed and, oh would you look that, tax based on non-renewable electricity sources for all it is then.

[AMT]

I watched that Tesla vs Porsche....frog thing.... fast, really fast but... its just, wheres the sound? (which in all honesty is a large part of the enjoyment and hit on your senses, also the lack of changing gears (even paddles would be fine) but I don't think either do as it says.  

 

I have a fear, all the people who have grown to know and love cars the way we see it, will soon 'die out' so to speak.  I think we will even have people going ...oh remember how good paddles were (like folk do manuals just now).  Not so long from now I think a new...a really new generation of young cars lover will grow up, but due to their surroundings it will be stuff like the Porsche 'electric frog' and Tesla 'my interior has no soul'...  so they won't miss things like sound or chaning gear because they didn't grow up with it and this is what manufacturers will taylor to, to get the numbers in.... and we will be a distant memory lol A little while down the line but I think thats how it might go, the future... it happens, times move on...     (it sucks...) 

[coldel]

4 hours ago, AMT said:

I watched that Tesla vs Porsche....frog thing.... fast, really fast but... its just, wheres the sound? (which in all honesty is a large part of the enjoyment and hit on your senses, also the lack of changing gears (even paddles would be fine) but I don't think either do as it says.  

 

I have a fear, all the people who have grown to know and love cars the way we see it, will soon 'die out' so to speak.  I think we will even have people going ...oh remember how good paddles were (like folk do manuals just now).  Not so long from now I think a new...a really new generation of young cars lover will grow up, but due to their surroundings it will be stuff like the Porsche 'electric frog' and Tesla 'my interior has no soul'...  so they won't miss things like sound or chaning gear because they didn't grow up with it and this is what manufacturers will taylor to, to get the numbers in.... and we will be a distant memory lol A little while down the line but I think thats how it might go, the future... it happens, times move on...     (it sucks...) 

Totally agree with the essence of sound which takes it to a whole different level - this popped up on my you tube feed yesterday https://youtu.be/DrkpxUZhzlA just amazing hearing these cars go by. And yes, the generation being born now will never get to experience the visceral sound of a V8 rumbling by and will think their two and a half tonne 0-60 in 3 seconds silent box has soul to it.

 

Fortunately I think we have enough people and collectors to look after cars nowadays - so am sure the ICE car will not only ever be seen on a plinth in a museum! Well not in our lifetime anyway! 

[GranTurismoEra]

On 31/10/2019 at 11:30, formatzero said:

 

In regards to sound Audi are already doing artificial Sci Fi vehicle sound in their hybrid/electric SUV and its quite loud. I hear one whiz past the office everyday. Its like a mix of Tron Bike and USS Enterprise.

 

 

[davey_83]

New release adds to the range, now showing as the models S 3 X Y 

 

[ATTAK Z]

SHOCK HORROR !!!

Boris Johnson is poised to announce that the government is bringing forward by a decade a ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars to 2030 from 2040.   New hybrid cars will get a stay of execution but will be banned from 2035.

[ATTAK Z]

How will this affect used prices ?   Is it time to sell IC vehicles or should we keep the good stuff in case used prices rise ?

[marzman]

30 minutes ago, ATTAK Z said:

How will this affect used prices ?   Is it time to sell IC vehicles or should we keep the good stuff in case used prices rise ?

I would imagine this will make any halfway interesting ICE cars from the late 20's appreciate very nicely - as long as there isnt a heavy penalty for ownership such as ludicrous road tax etc.

 

 

[G1en]

Bringing the ban forward to 2030 is crazy. Whats the plan for those millions of households parking on the street? Literally half (and then rising)  the parking spots at motorway services are gonna need a charge point etc etc

There is gonna have to be some monumental investment in infrastructure to make this work at a time when the country is borrowing at record levels already. 

[davey_83]

I'm sure government will take the necessary steps to ensure the best outcome for all, as per. 

[stanski]

Bringing the ban to 2030 probably gives us (petrol heads) 10 maybe 15 years before leccie cars overtake as the most common daily cars on the road, but as everyone has mentioned, only if the infrastructure is there to charge them all? 

 

They are only thinking about mini nuclear power stations now, it takes at least 10-15 years to build all this stuff, after all the paperwork and legal stuff done so what 20 years? We still won't have HS2 by then  pointless that it is!

Not to mention the Nuclear Fusion reactors everyone has been talking about for ever. Then of course the battery tech has to jump forward in mega strides within the next 5 years or all bets are off.

Ignoring the poor kids working in mines for lithium and shipping cars half way around the world (sail powered obviously to be green - yeah right) and all the other hypocrisy around EVs.

 

I am more environmentally friendly with my 55 year old Rover 3 litre, repairing and reusing something already made, yes it belches fumes into the atmosphere but I don't do 20000 miles per year in it.

I think classic cars will probably rise in value and be weekend only use. The last petrol new cars will still be the norm I think but yes we really are going through a golden age of petrol tech because it's going and manufacturers are trying to use up their tooling and machines and factories whilst they tool up for electric. They have to keep petrol going or they die, you can't just switch off manufacturer like that.

I am still hopeful synthetic petrol with no emissions is the future, saves a lot of messing and keeps our beloved cars alive for future generations but it's not there yet. 

Hydrogen the other option but for all this stuff we need cheap kits to convert your own classic or new car?

 

When you watch Vintage Voltage on the telly it's £30000+ and you only get 100 mile range? Pointless.

Cost is the problem electric cars are silly money and will be for some time.

 

Our worst enemy is the government taxing or worse banning the actual petrol itself? Then we are forced to run on White Lightning cider or cheap supermarket vodka! 

 

Today's electric cars they are like the first digital camera. Great at the time but now prehistoric and it wasn't that long ago?

 

Steps off soap box, I will be stay with my petrol dinosaurs because I can't afford to change if nothing else.