Brexit again

[coldel]

Ah kick it into the long grass, symptomatic of how problems have been dealt with all the way through this. 

 

Well, its over to parliament now, although it is looking decidedly shaky with the DUP Labour and SNP all voting against it, by definition that means it wont make it but depends on the day what sort of repercussions are on the table for doing so. 

 

Good though to see that parasite JRM become pretty much a non-event over the last week. 

[Ekona]

I like JRM. I may not agree with everything he says, but I do like that he stands by his opinions even when they’re deeply unpopular. 

 

The next Brexit vote is going to be a shambles. We all know it won’t get passed, which leaves us nowhere given that the EU have said that this is the only deal available. In retrospect perhaps the negotiating team should’ve been cross-party to avoid any “Well we could’ve done better!”, but then I doubt we’d have been able to reach a deal with the EU at all. 

 

Make no mistake, there’s not a single MP that’s doing anything for the good of the country over this. Tory rebels want May gone, Labour desperate to force a GE so they can do their own coalition, LD trying to appear relevant to the public with that nonsense People’s Vote, SNP taking every opportunity to cry some more about independence, and the DUP going full blackmail. 

 

 

No one cares that a no vote now is suicide. They all just have their own short-term agendas. 

[coldel]

I cannot agree with JRM at all mate, he is one of the most self centered politicians I have ever seen. The fact he wanted to push this to a No Deal from the off just to place his similarly minded MP friends in the right positions at the expense of this country says volumes of what his agenda is. The fact when asked who he would replace TM with he suggested David Davies shows how utterly devoid his inclination is to the welfare of this country, DD is a complete car crash, someone who failed miserably at his single remit - never quite got my head around how someone could be so awful at their job that has put this country's welfare in peril, and be put forward for a promotion 

 

But yes agree with the rest, this exit has now become more about political standing now than anyone doing the right thing because of the last two years Tory mismanagement of the exit negotiations. 

 

 

[docwra]

4 hours ago, Ekona said:

I like JRM. I may not agree with everything he says, but I do like that he stands by his opinions even when they’re deeply unpopular. 

He has U turned on this twice already, hes clearly only in it for himself. Up there with Boris levels of self serving scumbaggery IMO.

If it was obvious to me 2 years ago that we would end up in this "compromise" where no-one really wins, that a no deal would be disastrous and that actually we are probably just going to retain the status quo as its the only realistic route open to us it makes you wonder what all these experts have been doing in the meantime. The EU were never actually going to let us leave with any kind of good deal (why would they?) so self serving decision are all they are left with. 

[ATTAK Z]

On 24/11/2018 at 21:38, SuperStu said:

They put it off a while

 

https://www.ft.com/content/6fc997b6-d379-11e8-a9f2-7574db66bcd5

Yes, therefore not resolved in the eyes of the Spanish. Let's hope that they'll stop bringing this issue up again and again. Gibraltar is British Pedro my old mate ... VIVA CON ELLO !

[coldel]

42 minutes ago, docwra said:

He has U turned on this twice already, hes clearly only in it for himself. Up there with Boris levels of self serving scumbaggery IMO.

If it was obvious to me 2 years ago that we would end up in this "compromise" where no-one really wins, that a no deal would be disastrous and that actually we are probably just going to retain the status quo as its the only realistic route open to us it makes you wonder what all these experts have been doing in the meantime. The EU were never actually going to let us leave with any kind of good deal (why would they?) so self serving decision are all they are left with. 

 

I think it has been obvious to anyone with an ounce of commercial sense that this was always going to be the outcome. Basically those people have been labelled 'remoaners' what they were are people that have more sense of the potential outcomes than those blindly waving union jacks every time Boris appeared on TV. We are the smaller economic nation negotiating with a huge economic bloc (which is the point of its existence, it negotiates deals). The main problem is that you have politicians like JRM and Boris quite dangerously throwing ridiculous notions of being able to do what we want with no repercussion and 'telling the EU to go whistle' demanding more from the EU whilst out than what we had whilst in - just to further their political careers. For all the vitriol pointed at TM at the moment, we should be reserving it for people like Boris who just picks sides depending on what way the wind is blowing that year and JRM who just wants to undermine any government regardless unless there is a overtly right wing politician who is his best mate at the wheel.

Edited November 26, 2018 by coldel

[Jetpilot]

The referendum was in or out, you cant lay the foot of blame at the politicians we voted that way and as you said Col it could have been a masterpiece by TM to remain tied to the EU with her deal being a staunch remainer, who knows? But that was not what the majority voted for, as Ekona rightly points out, do you want to end up like Scotland, we voted out and out it should mean! What happens if we have another referendum and the vote is still out, what happens if remainers win, do we have another because its one all, its not best two out of three!

 

I watched an interview with Junker on the news this morning, he was asked if he was punishing the EU for leaving, he said he had the uttermost respect for the majority decision, we were not being punished and a better deal could not be done, the deal was the deal and you think are politicians are bad, they are all full of sh*t and their own agenda, of course they could do a better deal if they wanted.

 

This is only going to whip up more a frenzy of anger towards the EU with the Brexiters and make their resolve stronger, personally its a no win for anyone now, all the parties are split, the country is split and Eu or no Eu, i dont much like the look of the future!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[StevoD]

3 hours ago, Jetpilot said:

This is only going to whip up more a frenzy of anger towards the EU with the Brexiters and make their resolve stronger, personally its a no win for anyone now, all the parties are split, the country is split and Eu or no Eu, i dont much like the look of the future!

2

in the nicest way, what did you expect was going to happen? the Uk was going to ride off into the sunset with everything it always wanted.

[Jetpilot]

Of course not, however, i did expect the government to do a much much better job, not call an election and make a complete cluster f**k of it all. Sure we could never expect to get everything we wanted out of the EU, but a strong government with decent support (which it had) and some decent negotiators would have sure helped imho

 

I was always happy with the hard road, not some weak attempt at appeasing both the yes, no's and the EU.  

[Ekona]

Might as well hard Brexit with no deal at this point. That’s ultimately where we are now anyway. 

[The G Man]

Also, in the nicest way, we get the chance every five years or so to change the government, that poor wummin had to call an election, else the leaving party would have been right in the middle of an election, she took a chance, just got a weaker result than expected.

 

 ‘end up like Scotland’   you’d do well to 

[docwra]

Trump has made his first intelligent comment in 676 days of office :o 

My understanding is that while we can negotiate trade deals during the "backstop" purgatory we cannot implement them until we are out of it, that would really be having your cake and eating it. 

As anyone with a basic grasp of contracts negotiations knows, its pretty difficult to write one for an undisclosed point in the future and youd have to be extremely stupid to agree to it. Will be very interesting to see what Theresa has to say about this one, Im still reeling about Trump. 

[Adrian@TORQEN]

“The Brexit deal negotiated by Prime Minister Theresa May will lower economic output over the coming decade compared with staying in the European Union, researchers said.

 

The deal would lower gross domestic product per capita by between 1.9 percent and 5.5 percent versusEU membership, said a team led by economist Jonathan Portes. Leaving without a deal could lower output per head as much as 8.7 percent”

 

https://apple.news/Amna7Rx0RTDWgC6UqKabdYw

 

[coldel]

34 minutes ago, Adrian@TORQEN said:

“The Brexit deal negotiated by Prime Minister Theresa May will lower economic output over the coming decade compared with staying in the European Union, researchers said.

 

The deal would lower gross domestic product per capita by between 1.9 percent and 5.5 percent versusEU membership, said a team led by economist Jonathan Portes. Leaving without a deal could lower output per head as much as 8.7 percent”

 

https://apple.news/Amna7Rx0RTDWgC6UqKabdYw

 

Quite a lot of experts out there at the moment having a say, have to disentangle the bias research though - I saw at the bottom of this article a reference to the economy losing £100b by 2030 which could be right but I did read this report the other day before noticing it had been commissioned by a pro-remain group so its unlikely to have come to a positive conclusion. 

[docwra]

"UK in a Changing Europe is an initiative to improve access to research on the relationship between the UK and the European Union. It is funded by the Economic and Social Research Council, and based at Kings College London"

 

Seem pretty even handed TBF.

 

[coldel]

4 minutes ago, docwra said:

"UK in a Changing Europe is an initiative to improve access to research on the relationship between the UK and the European Union. It is funded by the Economic and Social Research Council, and based at Kings College London"

 

Seem pretty even handed TBF.

 

Yep sounds pretty objective, although as referenced the throwaway reference in the last paragraph certainly isn't.

[coldel]

1 hour ago, docwra said:

Trump has made his first intelligent comment in 676 days of office :o 

My understanding is that while we can negotiate trade deals during the "backstop" purgatory we cannot implement them until we are out of it, that would really be having your cake and eating it. 

As anyone with a basic grasp of contracts negotiations knows, its pretty difficult to write one for an undisclosed point in the future and youd have to be extremely stupid to agree to it. Will be very interesting to see what Theresa has to say about this one, Im still reeling about Trump. 

Well Trump has had a couple of stabs at it and is getting there...

 

...my understanding is the issue was more to do with non tariff barriers - the EU is particularly strict on things around goods in terms of health and safety etc. whereas the US is much looser (chlorinated chicken anyone ) so to operate a free trade model with the EU we still need to be tied to those (the common rulebook) which makes it much more difficult to be working in in a free trade agreement importing goods from other countries which contradict those. 

 

But yes I agree Doc, leaving 20XX in the contract is something TM should not have agreed to - of course we need insurance if trade negotiations should break down but I think putting a proper deadline in achieves two things; firstly it focuses the parties to a schedule and milestones, secondly its an incentive for both parties to resolve challenges instead of kicking it into the long grass which is exactly whats happened here - as soon as the transition period got mentioned everything has suddenly become very vague. 

Edited November 27, 2018 by coldel

[Jetpilot]

I saw this on another forum and thought, actually not a bad idea, if parliament block the deal/agreement and much as i am against another referendum, if it were to happen this is what we should vote on, whats your thoughts:

 

- Leave no deal
- Remain as before
- Leave on current deal

 

 

Edited November 27, 2018 by Jetpilot

[coldel]

Yes been umming and urring about this but three answers does leave the very real chance that the minority will get their way. If 35% choose one, 33% another and 32% the last one then you have a 65% majority of the country being pushed down a route they didn't vote for. 

[Jetpilot]

True enough, so if another referendum does come it has to be in or out (again)

[Ekona]

27 minutes ago, coldel said:

Yes been umming and urring about this but three answers does leave the very real chance that the minority will get their way. If 35% choose one, 33% another and 32% the last one then you have a 65% majority of the country being pushed down a route they didn't vote for. 

Although it would split the leave vote, so arguably we'd be more likely to end with with Remain as the winner...

[Jetpilot]

I dont think it would, i reckon most would still vote out and no deal, not sure any brexiter would vote for that deal/agreement,

[ATTAK Z]

20 hours ago, Ekona said:

Might as well hard Brexit with no deal at this point. That’s ultimately where we are now anyway. 

I agree with you Dan ... just leave and they'll (the EU) come running with a much better offer after two or three months

[Ekona]

Will they f*ck. It's a nose cutting off exercise now, on both sides. Damage is done, neither side can be seen to back down. Too much to lose from political perspectives.

[Stutopia]

1 hour ago, Jetpilot said:

I dont think it would, i reckon most would still vote out and no deal, not sure any brexiter would vote for that deal/agreement,

It's the worst of everything, neither a leaver nor a remainer should be impressed. On the positive side, at least we've got something that everyone agrees on at last!