Brexit again

[coldel]

9 minutes ago, Bullet said:

Not at all, I don't think there should be an EU army full stop. I think that every country should have their own army to protect their own country, culture and economy.

 

They want to set up a Eu army in case of threats/war with Russia, china. We have never had a war with either Russia or China but we have had 2 world wars with Germany.

Ask yourself this, If ww2 was to happen all over again but first they were able to set up a European army and therefore have troops stationed in all European countries........Would it have ended differently ? 

 

I guess throwing questions back, if we all looked after our own, if Russia invaded Britain and took the country, its ok for everyone else to shrug their shoulders and just say 'we are looking after our own' - is that acceptable? And yes we have indirectly and directly had many wars with both Russia and China over the years, Crimea was a war of UK/US backed soldiers vs Chinese and Russian ones, thats in living memory too. 

 

As for the WW2 question, it is far too simplistic a question to give a simple answer to. The day Hitler ordered his troops over the border UK diplomats were in Germany discussing the proposition of safe haven for UK lands safe haven if we turned a blind eye to invasions of Poland surrounding countries. The fragmented nature of Europe at that time made it susceptible to military occupation, and so we saw that play out. It wasn't a case of them and us.

 

I am not sure what you are actually afraid of? Is it that you think Germany are going to become Nazis and marching an EU army into the UK, is that really your concern? Is the distrust with particular countries? Or the concept?

[Maggz]

4 minutes ago, Bullet said:

 Does that not scare you ?

Err no. European Union with a parliament where votes matter, and people get voted in and out sounds a lot better than what Europe was for the last 2000 odd years. 

[Maggz]

6 minutes ago, Bullet said:

I completely agree but you saying its better to join germany and let them quietly take over than stay on our own and have a war with them ?

What war with Germany? Why would there be one? They'd need to leave the EU, get an army, be very upset with something the UK had done, and only then try to do something. 

 

Dunno, seems like a lot of work compared to staying in the EU and working with the other 26 to improve the life of its residents and develop socially, technologically and economically. 

[coldel]

Anyway, back on track, deal agreed in principle - although more 'stuff kicked into the long grass' which has been the bane of the process so far. Even fishing isn't sovereign with rights for access to be agreed it seems based on leaked details.

[Adrian@TORQEN]

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/758556/22_November_Draft_Political_Declaration_setting_out_the_framework_for_the_future_relationship_between_the_EU_and_the_UK__agreed_at_negotiators__level_and_agreed_in_principle_at_political_level__subject_to_endorsement_by_Leaders.pdf

[coldel]

Well that's all going to go down well! As suspected, lots of joint operations, negotiations on economic rights etc. The idea of this complete split from the EU is looking more and more unlikely, too much to lose and too little to gain. Awaits JRM to go on TV and tell us about those letters and Boris to tell her to go whistle...

 

[Maggz]

Isolation and protectionism doesn't work in today's world. No country is fully self-sufficient anymore. Cooperation and close trade relations is the best if not only way to ensure continuous growth. 

[Jetpilot]

Looks like the remainers did win the vote, ah well, least it still gives Ukip a reason to exist 

 

 

[coldel]

21 minutes ago, Jetpilot said:

Looks like the remainers did win the vote, ah well, least it still gives Ukip a reason to exist 

 

 

Ha yeah probably right! Leavers had a prime chance to do something though, it was when David Davies was meant to be creating this agreement, a remit which he royally ballsed up. He made no progress, poorly prepared, and had no negotiation strategy. That's the problem of having extremists like him and JRM trying to manage this, you actually needed a softer leaver in there. Or maybe that was Mays plan all along, put in ardent leavers who are incapable of doing the job, boot them out, then put in a remain agenda 

[Jetpilot]

You could be very right 

 

Could get very interesting from here  i hope Corbyn is ready to be prime minister  

Edited November 22, 2018 by Jetpilot

[coldel]

To be fair she is doing a decent job of fending off the hostility in the house. 

 

Boris slates her for putting in the backstop, she responds that he was on the committee that originally agreed to do it in the first place 

 

Raab says that Brexit should be about taking back control not giving more up, she replied saying its the first chance she has had to formally thank him for his work as Brexit Secretary 

 

Unfortunately we have a weak leader, weak opposition, we have deluded Leavers and no leverage vs a much bigger entity. Was this outcome going to be any different...

[Jetpilot]

Wise words as ever  however much our views might differ 

 

Whilst i have no vested interest or wish for a no deal as i think that would cause carnage, i wonder what would happen if parliament voted it down, not that i think they will.

[Jay84]

The weakness of the leaders is reflected in the split in voters wants. Not one party has a candidate that has the charisma and strength to break the near 50/50 split. Is this because of the ease of which vast information can be acquired, the break down in popularity of news papers? The utilisation of social media? I think the decline of the newspaper has had a massive impact, particularly on the younger up and coming voters. I'm curious, political advertising is not allowed on TV, what restrictions are in place for Social Media based propaganda and the 'truth'?

[coldel]

Well if Labour do vote against it, as Corbyn has said, might come down to the fringes, rebel Tories and the DUP coming through on their confidence and supply agreement. I think May is relying on the fear of No Deal to force it through.

[coldel]

2 minutes ago, Jay84 said:

The weakness of the leaders is reflected in the split in voters wants. Not one party has a candidate that has the charisma and strength to break the near 50/50 split. Is this because of the ease of which vast information can be acquired, the break down in popularity of news papers? The utilisation of social media? I think the decline of the newspaper has had a massive impact, particularly on the younger up and coming voters. I'm curious, political advertising is not allowed on TV, what restrictions are in place for Social Media based propaganda and the 'truth'?

The last election was about putting in place whoever the populate trusted the most to get Brexit done. Be interesting to see where the votes go this time...

[Jetpilot]

8 minutes ago, coldel said:

Be interesting to see where the votes go this time...

Seeing as TM hasnt delivered on any of her promises, end of free movement, customs union etc etc unless she is out by the next election i cant see Cons going anywhere, i certainly wont be voting for them or more so, her.

 

I also notice in the agreement at one point, it says the EU recognises the UK as an independent state, i think that says it all 

Edited November 22, 2018 by Jetpilot

[Maggz]

May failed to deliver a majestic herd of unicorns as she didn't have  enough people with the expertise in unicorn-breeding.

I'm no fan but she was destined to fail anyway as expectations were unrealistic. 

After she fails and leaves, everyone will also use her as the scapegoat why Brexit failed, and no one will mention that the idea of a negotiated Brexit which gives UK any real benefits goes against all logic, as EU wants to make sure no one else leaves. So the UK had to be worse off unfortunately. The more the better for their cause.

[Jay84]

I choked on my biscuit.

I completely agree, she was on a hiding to nowhere, and will absolutely be scapegoated. 

[Jetpilot]

5 minutes ago, Maggz said:

as EU wants to make sure no one else leaves. So the UK had to be worse off unfortunately. The more the better for their cause.

Very true, so if and its a huge if, its thrown out in parliament and we go no deal (highly unlikely of course) would this then pave the way for the fringe eu countries who have been thinking of going to the vote think, attack while the iron is out, whats the worst that can happen?

 

Found this quite interesting:

 

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/11/16/7-more-things-weve-learned-about-public-opinion-br

[Maggz]

1 minute ago, Jetpilot said:

Very true, so if and its a huge if, its thrown out in parliament and we go no deal (highly unlikely of course) would this then pave the way for the fringe eu countries who have been thinking of going to the vote think, attack while the iron is out, whats the worst that can happen?

 

Found this quite interesting:

 

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/11/16/7-more-things-weve-learned-about-public-opinion-br

I'll talk out of my ass a bit as I can't take hours Googling individual product groups for numbers. But generally how it works is (someone please correct me where I'm wrong):

Hard Brexit means WTO rules, which have imposed tarrifs for a lot of the goods we import freely. In theory anything not produced in the UK could get more expensive. I think the only question is by how many %. From food ,to medicine, to cars, electric appliances, furniture, etc...

WTO rules are in effect until the UK sings a trade deal with another country, i.e. Spain. After that WTO rules don't apply for Spain, but does for all other no agreement counties. Now imagine how many we need really badly. 

Next thing is Pund value. Pound plummeting would increase the hit on prices for imports. 

Again how much is speculative, but I think 10-15% pound fall is possible, and WTO tarrifs in average would probably be about the same. 

By salaries not going up, but prices jumping due to those problems, purchasing power of UK residents would go down significantly. Less spend means less money for companies selling things. Less money for companies, less revenue, profits and potentialn job losses. What I'm describing is your average economic crisis, imagine 2008 but for different reasons. 

 

Now... Trade deals are important. USA, Australia, Canada, all friends we have, know what will happen if we don't sign them as soon as possible, meaning they have a negotiating advantage over us and can demand things, we'd never accept in a normal situation, like NHS privatisation, chlorinated chickens, workers rights changes, lower food quality standards (those came from US only), and many other things, we at this time, are happy we do not have. 

 

 

This is not fearmongering. This is a hard Brexit scenario. How bad will it be, depends on those percentages and how our government will react to offset the damages by trying to change loan rates, etc. 

 

That's why this partial deal with the EU is important, we need some trade until we sign trade deals with others, in order to minimise WTO tariffs and new costs. But publicly, you don't really want to cause a panic, so these things are not really being discussed properly. 

I think if they did, and people panicked properly, other issues may happen, like mass cash withdrawal on banks, property value fluctuating massively, etc. 

 

So I think Mays deal or if extended transition period for further negotiations. Hard Brexit would be so bad for us, that no responsible politician would go for it (on either side). 

At least I hope...

[Jetpilot]

Furthering my last post , if it doesnt get the vote in Parliament, do you think the EU would start getting a little tetchy and offer some more concessions?

 

Yes i get hard brexit and not asking what is the worse that can happen to us, apologies, i was asking, if we left on that basis, would other countries considering their membership and think whats the worst that can happen the Eu couldnt force the UK to a deal they cant with us?

Edited November 22, 2018 by Jetpilot

[Maggz]

10 minutes ago, Jetpilot said:

Furthering my last post , if it doesnt get the vote in Parliament, do you think the EU would start getting a little tetchy and offer some more concessions?

 

Yes i get hard brexit and not asking what is the worse that can happen to us, apologies, i was asking, if we left on that basis, would other countries considering their membership and think whats the worst that can happen the Eu couldnt force the UK to a deal they cant with us?

Not sure anyone can afford an exit. Italy is broke, worse than Greece was.

Poland, Hungary have a populist leader elected which are blaming the EU and immigration for their failed economy even though they are not net contributors but are actually getting money. Orban is also a full on racist, but that's a whole different story lol. 

Separatist movements currently in Europe are the best way to gain % in elections, but no one actually offered any solution which would work.

The UK was a pilot project, strongest economy, already on its own currency, and with the "easiest" exit. 

 

If Italy goes out, takes over the Lira again, they're becoming Albania in 2 years. Check their current national debt. 

Hungary is the same story. 

Poland is the only country with a proper upwords projection and growth, but it's mostly due to its cheap labour and being in the middle of Europe geographically. Their tech sector is booming with HP, IBM, SAP Hybris, and many many other foreign companies opened European centres there (Katowice, Krakov, etc).

 

If UK can't make the exit work, no one else can. So UK exiting will funnily make the EU stronger, as no one else will have the resources and guts to leave. 

Edited November 22, 2018 by Maggz

[Jetpilot]

Fair comments 

 

Well from my prospective agree or disagree the recent events have confirmed why i voted to leave, i placed my vote to a government who offered what i wanted and policies i agreed with, they havent delivered (yet), at the next election my vote will be changed (for what little its worth) and.....

 

Apart from a few elected mep's we have 0 control over Brussels, they have seen and for political correctness sake, roughly 50% of the UK population vote against them, they care not about me and that 50% and we have no way to alter that, this is the exact reason i did not want to be a part of the EU.

 

On the flip side, i really do hope the Brexiters dont start protesting and calling for another referendum, its done, let sleeping dogs like  

 

 

[Maggz]

44 minutes ago, Jetpilot said:

 

Apart from a few elected mep's we have 0 control over Brussels, 

This is strongly disagree with. UK was one of the most influential counties in Europe. Trust me, it was even if our politicians keep telling us otherwise. 

Slovenia, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Slovakia, Cz, Romania, Bulgaria, .... How much influence do you think they have?

UK, Germany and France, everyone else are just votes these three counties were buying or competing for. Best member status by far compared to others and it left, and the whole Europe is scratching its head, trying to understand why. 

Yes birocracy sucks and eu parliament doesn't always vote or decide the UK way... but the only way you can change that is by staying and fighting for your  interests, not leaving and crying while walking away, that  the EU isn't  fair.

And considering the alternative is Hard Brexit, which is economical suicide... I really don't understand why this is a good idea. For some fake independence which will move from European one percenters to British ones. At least Europe kept ours in check, and we have some decent laws for food, workers and environment because of it..... anyway...I digress.

 

Check this for influence

 

https://www-bbc-co-uk.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-46302931?amp_js_v=a2&amp_gsa=1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From %1%24s

[Adrian@TORQEN]

2 hours ago, Maggz said:

Hard Brexit means WTO rules, which have imposed tarrifs for a lot of the goods we import freely. In theory anything not produced in the UK could get more expensive. I think the only question is by how many %. From food ,to medicine, to cars, electric appliances, furniture, etc...

WTO rules are in effect until the UK sings a trade deal with another country, i.e. Spain. After that WTO rules don't apply for Spain, but does for all other no agreement counties. Now imagine how many we need really badly. 

"Every WTO member has a list of tariffs (taxes on imports of goods) and quotas (limits on the number of goods) that they apply to other countries. These are known as their WTO schedules. 

The average EU tariff is pretty low (about 2.6% for non-agricultural products) - but, in some sectors, tariffs can be quite high. 

Under WTO rules, cars and car parts, for example, would be taxed at 10% every time they crossed the UK-EU border. And agricultural tariffs are significantly higher, rising to an average of over 35% for dairy products. 

After Brexit, the UK could choose to lower tariffs or waive them altogether, in an attempt to stimulate free trade. That could mean some cheaper products coming into the country for consumers but it could also risk driving some UK producers out of business. 

It's important to remember that, under the WTO's "most favoured nation" rules, the UK couldn't lower tariffs for the EU, or any specific country, alone. It would have to treat every other WTO member around the world in the same way."

 

 

Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45112872