No more new petrol/diesel cars by 2040?

[gangzoom]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-40723581

 

Am sure this news will make some of you guys happy:)

 

Seems rather unexciting though, 2040 is over 20 years away, personally I would be amazed any manufactures are still making mass market combustion cars by 2030 or sooner.

[Ekona]

Never going to happen in my lifetime. Maybe they'll ban ICE cars from city centres, but that's about it.

[Lexx]

2 hours ago, gangzoom said:

 

 

Am sure this news will make some of you guys happy:)

 

Don't be that guy. 

 

[Ebized]

Gove v the might of those with vested interests in the oil industry.......hmmmm

[Flashback]

Maybe there will be a market for micro distilleries of petrol at the time? Or alternative bio petrol or something like that?

 

It seems like a sad but inevitable day in the mass market one day.

[leonk]

15 minutes ago, Flashback said:

Maybe there will be a market for micro distilleries of petrol at the time? 

 

There already is. Try buying ethanol free fuel in the UK now. It's just cost me, £112 for 25 litres! 

[Jay84]

Yeah I've never heard of a governing body going back on there word when targets are going to be missed. I guess it's inevitable that it'll happen, but by 2040? Only time will tell. According to another thread, 23rd September will herald the 2nd coming, so Dan may be right about not in his lifetime. 

[Flashback]

5 minutes ago, leonk said:

 

There already is. Try buying ethanol free fuel in the UK now. It's just cost me, £112 for 25 litres! 

Ouch! I thought BP ultimate was ethanol free? Is it just low % mix?

[leonk]

1 minute ago, Flashback said:

Ouch! I thought BP ultimate was ethanol free? Is it just low % mix?

Alas not as of March this year. Up to 2% ethanol. 

 

 

 

[Stutopia]

They've picked the timeframe precisely because they think car makers will have already made the switch themselves. This is a nothing effort to impact air quality dressed up as a bold policy initiative.

 

If there was any genuine intent to it, and not just a sideshow, they'd be talking about electrifying planes or ships by 2040 and cars by 2025. 

[Randy_Baton]

If this only impacts new car,s presume my Zed will stop depreciating by so much.... 

 

[Flashback]

4 minutes ago, Randy_Baton said:

If this only impacts new car,s presume my Zed will stop depreciating by so much.... 

 

It should be going up in value by 2098..

[gangzoom]

1 hour ago, Ebized said:

Gove v the might of those with vested interests in the oil industry.......hmmmm

 

The oil industry isn't stupid, and those with a view on the future are already trying to adapt.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-20/dubai-starts-desert-solar-plant-as-part-of-world-s-biggest-park

 

What's going to drive EV adoption will mainly driven by money/business rather than true 'green' aims. The world of energy generation is changing, and changing fast. The concept you can turn a profit by building a massive power station and selling energy to consumers is been attacked from all angles.  

 

There is a whole new industry emerging, which always means there is money to be made some where, and those companies who can capitalise and get ahead now have the most to gain.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/07/23/uk-power-industrial-strategy-battery-funding-revolution/

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/feb/12/uk-offshore-wind-will-lower-energy-bills-more-than-nuclear

 

EVs are only one piece of the puzzle, and in the grand scheme of things it the impact battery storage + solar/wind electricity generation that will have a much bigger impact.

 

Personally I cannot wait to see how things develop, and am thankful am alive in this time of transition away from fossil fuels. The most exciting thing that happened in my parents lifetime was the advent of microprocessors, the move away from fossil fuels will have an equally big if not bigger impact on the planet than anything we've seen yet.

[Stutopia]

For the life of me I can't figure out why hydro hasn't gone further in the UK, I mean it rains 7 days in 10 and instead of wasting resources making and maintaining pointless batteries for use during peak demand, they can just pump the water back up to the dam in low demand, ready for the next spike. Not to mention the opportunities for micro hydro plants doted all over.

 

I can only assume it's the middle class eco mentalists who don't want these facilities being on the side of a mountain with a rare type of grass growing on it, but still want electricity but don't want dirty fossils, or dirty nuclear, or wind and solar reducing their house prices!

[Jay84]

\What interests me is what they'll replace the money generated from fuel tax. If all of a sudden we no longer need to buy fossil fuels to run our cars, but are still using the roads, something else will need to be taxed to compensate. All of a sudden there will be no tax free cars anymore, as EV's will become subject to road tax. And that runs on the assumption that car/fuel tax only goes into the road infrastructure, which as we all know it doesn't. Sure road costs will be less, but higher VAT and income tax to compensate, negating any savings from owning an EV. SO enjoy it while you can, as the cash benefits will vanish. But environmentally we'll be better off.

[Jay84]

I agree @SuperStu, its a middle Britain mentality. I quite like the wind turbines, i think they're graceful. But I live in a suburb, so it doesn't look out of place. 

[Stutopia]

17 minutes ago, Jay84 said:

I agree @SuperStu, its a middle Britain mentality. I quite like the wind turbines, i think they're graceful. But I live in a suburb, so it doesn't look out of place. 

 

There's two kinds, your full on nutter, who has no TV and lives by candle light and eats only raw fruit & veg. These lot want the end of electricity forever. Fortunately they're about 1%.

 

The rest carbon off set their flights, eat Waitrose organic and have an inheritance that supports being chained to a fence somewhere where protesting is trendy this week. Tell them they can't use instagram anymore because there isn't any power and they'll start building nuclear power stations for free

 

If you look at the way fracking has steam rollered planning and environmental concerns (not to mention democracy) hydro should take a leaf out of their book.

[Paul K]

Contrary to a "dirty nuclear" statement earlier....generating electricity by Nuke is actually very, very clean......its the fuel reprocessing aspect (windscale!) and the risk of a Chernobyl, that causes issues

[gangzoom]

22 minutes ago, Jay84 said:

\What interests me is what they'll replace the money generated from fuel tax. If all of a sudden we no longer need to buy fossil fuels to run our cars, but are still using the roads, something else will need to be taxed to compensate. All of a sudden there will be no tax free cars anymore, as EV's will become subject to road tax. And that runs on the assumption that car/fuel tax only goes into the road infrastructure, which as we all know it doesn't. Sure road costs will be less, but higher VAT and income tax to compensate, negating any savings from owning an EV. SO enjoy it while you can, as the cash benefits will vanish. But environmentally we'll be better off.

 

One thing that will never stay the same is taxation etc, EVs still only at present make a small number of sales, but as things change am sure so will taxation. Am waiting for my 3rd EV to be delivered and actually running out of places to ask for the subsidised home charging points to be put in (both sets of in-laws have them fitted already)!!! The Tesla am waiting delivery on still has 'free for life' access to the best EV rapid charging network in the world, by the end of this year all that will have changed with all new Tesla owners having to pay 20p/kWh to use the same network. So the incentives are already going but whilst they are still here why no use them??

 

Norway is fast heading towards EV sales overtaking combustion car sales by the end of this year, but interestingly their government have decided to just take a hit on having reduced tax revenue from EVs and press ahead with a move towards banning all combustion car sales by 2025.

 

Whats more interesting is Norway is more rural than the UK in many regions, and much colder, but despite that people have no problems using limited range EVs like the Leaf/eGolf.

 

https://electrek.co/2016/11/09/norway-keeps-electric-vehicle-tax-exemption-until-2020-positions-itself-to-stay-ev-leader/

 

[StevoD]

Not a ban on hybrids if it's mean things like the Yaris hybrid R or 308 R, I could make some adjustments 

[veeg33]

I don't think they will transition straight to full EV, hybrid will flood that market in 10 years or so, then 10 years later EV will kick in.

 

My opinions:

1.) Charging points, assuming battery range are still poor but i doubt it hence might not be an issue but still you'll need to charge when you are away from home.

2.) Power station will need to cope with surge in power when everyone  starts charging at night - Might be OK since charging uses less power as putting the kettle on (my assumption) but over 30 million cars in the UK (https://www.statista.com/statistics/299972/average-age-of-cars-on-the-road-in-the-united-kingdom/) and assuming 20% will charge per night, that's around 6 million to charge

3.) Electric station to replace petrol station - Potentially? Drive in, swap batteries (if all manufacturer starts to standardise batteries and easy access to them) and off you go

 

It's pretty exciting that this will actually happen in my lifetime

 

Someone will soon quote (a scene in I-Robot and i'm not sure if that's the exact quote) - "OMG, you have a petrol power motorcycle"

[Jay84]

If I had more time I'd google, but what % of tax revenue comes from petrol sales? I'm not being difficult, as i agree IC will fade out and be replaced. But can you imagine the outcry when people who don't drive and never have all of a sudden find income tax increase to offset the loss in fuel revenue?

[gangzoom]

17 minutes ago, veeg33 said:

My opinions:

1.) Charging points, assuming battery range are still poor but i doubt it hence might not be an issue but still you'll need to charge when you are away from home.

2.) Power station will need to cope with surge in power when everyone  starts charging at night - Might be OK since charging uses less power as putting the kettle on (my assumption) but over 30 million cars in the UK (https://www.statista.com/statistics/299972/average-age-of-cars-on-the-road-in-the-united-kingdom/) and assuming 20% will charge per night, that's around 6 million to charge

3.) Electric station to replace petrol station - Potentially? Drive in, swap batteries (if all manufacturer starts to standardise batteries and easy access to them) and off you go

 

 

1: Charging points for people without off road parking is an issue, but people are actively trying to come up with solution. Lamp post can now be converted to charging points for a cost that is apparently 4 digits and falling. But as battery range improves that becomes less of an issue - I charge my Tesla less than twice a week, yet I've still covered 6K miles in 4 months with no range anxiety at all.

 

https://www.zap-map.com/london-street-lights-converted-to-ev-charge-points-for-trial/

 

2: Power generation needs to change, and demand 'managed', battery storage tech is essential in this regard. Also remember it is unlikely 30 million cars will all charge at the same time, especially as range improves. Would you go and refuel your current car if you had 150 miles in the tank?.....Can you remember what happened to petrol stations at the last haulage strike and everyone tried to fill up at the same time??

 

3: Tesla actually demoed this and rolled out two battery swap stations in LA a few years ago. The problem is no one used them.....The reason been why would you go out of your way to get a 'battery swap' when you can simply plug in at home after work and be greeted by a fully charged charge the next day. Time wise it makes no sense to go for battery swapping unless your doing a 300 miles+ trip. Equally as rapid chargers are now been touted to be approach 300KW, that's potentially 200 miles of range (3 hrs of driving) added about 15 minutes - which is probably how long a toilet brake takes. Yes some people do actually need to drive 500 miles a day non-stop every day, but those people are rare, the average UK motorist does 8000 miles a year, that's 50 miles a day max if you only drove at weekdays.

 

 

 

 

As you say the fact all this tech is happening right now is pretty exciting :).

Edited July 26, 2017 by gangzoom

[Stutopia]

15 minutes ago, Paul K said:

Contrary to a "dirty nuclear" statement earlier....generating electricity by Nuke is actually very, very clean......its the fuel reprocessing aspect (windscale!) and the risk of a Chernobyl, that causes issues

 

I wasn't condemning nuclear earlier, I'm an advocate, having grown up in the shadow of Sellafield and seeing what it can do for the rural economy. I was saying that much of the middle class mafia eco mentalists reject it because it's seen as dirty nuclear. That said, even a nuclear fan like me can't divorce the bits that are potentially hazardous then say, but the REST of it is clean  

 

Chernobyl always gets a name check in the nuclear discussion but Three Mile Island needs to be on the roll call. Fukushima won't be much of holiday destination for a while. We only stopped controls on Cumbrian & Welsh sheep in 2012, from an issue that occurred in 1986. All of these were avoidable though.

[Stutopia]

17 minutes ago, Jay84 said:

If I had more time I'd google, but what % of tax revenue comes from petrol sales? I'm not being difficult, as i agree IC will fade out and be replaced. But can you imagine the outcry when people who don't drive and never have all of a sudden find income tax increase to offset the loss in fuel revenue?

 

It's exactly the same as the recent VED u-turn on "low emission" diesels, they've realised what a disaster that was financially (and on air quality) and decided perhaps exemption wasn't right after all