The EV problem.

[Jay84]

I think it is the future, and lets face it, when internal combustion came in, everything about it was rubbish compared to now...compared to the horse and cart in fact. But look at us now. I think it'll be the same with EV. A new concept rarely comes out better than what it aims to replace in the mass market, but with constant improvements and tinkering it'll exceed the current.

[gangzoom]

 

So 16 years then? Jeez man, that's even more optimistic than I thought you might say. Shame you're not a betting man, I'd have put my house on that one!

 

Actually I think it'll happen a lot quicker than that....but as I say I'm not a betting man .

[Ekona]

I think it is the future, and lets face it, when internal combustion came in, everything about it was rubbish compared to now...compared to the horse and cart in fact. But look at us now. I think it'll be the same with EV. A new concept rarely comes out better than what it aims to replace in the mass market, but with constant improvements and tinkering it'll exceed the current.

I don't disagree that EV will eventually take over, but I don't think it'll be in my lifetime at all. Too much infrastructure has to change first, and that's going to be a hard sell.

[gangzoom]

Oooh that black looks mean. Love it.

 

....add in the ability to lunge at your rear mirror from 0-60 in just over 3 seconds!! I had one follow me the other day, no idea if it was the stupidly quick version or not, I was just glad they turned off before I got home

[Aashenfox]

So 16 years then? Jeez man, that's even more optimistic than I thought you might say. Shame you're not a betting man, I'd have put my house on that one!

 

Actually I think it'll happen a lot quicker than that....but as I say I'm not a betting man .

 

I support everything you say, except that. It will be AT LEAST 25 years before petrol cars are banned (or rather, it is discouraged except in niche markets to produce and sell them in the UK), and even then there will be a grace period of 10 years or so for people to make the change, so figure 30 years MINIMUM before the only new cars being sold do not burn anything, but instead merely inconvenience a large number of electrons. That's my prediction anyway, and it doesn't apply to the US who will be using petrol for at least the next 50 years, imo.

Edited June 8, 2017 by Aashenfox

[Jay84]

We'll be the modern equivalent of equestrian enthusiasts annoying people in our crazy smelly noisy slow outdated machines.

[Aashenfox]

You could do a sportsman's bet, y'know.

 

The point was more for you to define moving away from fossil fuels. You say within our lifetime, but what would you consider as us successfully moving away from oil & gas.

 

I would say combustion cars wouldn't be mass produced and over 50% of the UK grid energy is generated consistently via solar/wind would be massive departure from where we are now. I would be disappointed if by the time my daughter is old enough to drive people are still buying brand new combustion cars on a regular basis for the purposes of transportation.

 

And this...funny you should mention '50% of energy made from renewable sources', it happened yesterday for the first time ever. Yay us!

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk...siness-40198567

Edited June 8, 2017 by Aashenfox

[coldel]

A few numbers for you:

 

40m cars in the UK (give or take) of which 99% are petrol/diesel - its been a steady number for some time now

2m cars bought new each year - again pretty steady for a number of years

 

So in effect cars going to the great car park in the sky are matching new car purchases, 2m in 2m out. So to get the scenario where we say 50% of all cars in the UK are EV, thats 20m on the road all things being equal. Lets say EV cars off the bat (and this is clearly pie in the sky) today are 50% of all new car sales, 1m sales a year. By 2030 twelve years from now thats 12m cars, around 1/3rd of cars on the road EV.

 

For some realistic context sales are currently around 2% (I think!?) EV not 50%. OK I understand all things being equal is not going to be the face of it - the only way EV is going to be the main car on the road when said daughter is driving is really up to the government and how much money they invest in the UK on promoting EV usage in the country via infrastructure.

[Aashenfox]

We'll be the modern equivalent of equestrian enthusiasts annoying people in our crazy smelly noisy slow outdated machines.

 

You can bet that the V6 sound will be missed and more thumbs will be raised in general by passers-by at least.

[gangzoom]

 

I support everything you say, except that. It will be AT LEAST 25 years before petrol cars are banned

 

You wouldn't need to ban anything, people will just stop buying them.

 

The Tesla FaceBook group is full of people swimming around in cash, a Ferrari seems to be the most common 'other car' in the garage. Yet nearly every owner wouldn't consider buying a combustion car ever again. Infact cost aside you rarely find any EV owner wanting to go back to combustion cars.

 

The main barrier is cost, current EVs are either cheap but poor range (Leaf) or expensive and limited to people who have the means (Tesla).

 

That what these battery factories are about, getting costs down, so allowing a cheap and long range EV to appear. We have seen just how quickly diesel cars have gone out of favour in a little over 12 months. It's the car buying public that will decided.

 

A £25K EV that can do 0-60 in less than 6 seconds, carry 5 adults, £0 road tax, 200 miles range, minimal fuel costs versus a £25K 320D that costs £70-80 a pop to fill up, slower to 60.......We'll find out soon as the Tesla Model 3 is about to reach the mass market. The current established manufactures still see EVs as a fad, but if those 400K+ preorders Tesla have for the Model 3 turn to orders we'll soon see the biggest changes in the car market since the Model T Ford.

 

Tesla's biggest competition is actually coming from the likes of BYD,NEO,Lucid Air, these are companies no one have heard of, but they are far more ahead in coming out with EV rivals to Tesla than any of the established names (Nissan apart). No one thought Nokia, Kodak would disappear either.

Edited June 8, 2017 by gangzoom

[Aashenfox]

If everyone changed their car every year, your figures would be right, and the problems would be less. But particularly the older generation (over 50s) are on 20 year plus cycles for their automobiles and will simply not consider replacing it until it needs replacing. The government cannot force people to spend money they don't have so you can expect for at least the next 30 years, that petrol vehicles will still be around albeit in ever dwindling numbers. Then there's the problem of people selling their cars AFTER the EV boom starts, when nobody will want to buy a second hand petrol car at all, and they will have basically lost the capital that was in their current car (a significant proportion of a person's net worth), potentially precluding the possibility of buying an EV of an equivalent class, or even causing an individual to have to get into debt, again somewhat unfair. There's a lot more to it than simply 'electric is better so it will win quickly'.

Edited June 8, 2017 by Aashenfox

[Strudul]

But he said people buying brand new, not that there wouldn't still be ICE cars around:

I would be disappointed if by the time my daughter is old enough to drive people are still buying brand new combustion cars on a regular basis for the purposes of transportation.

[Aashenfox]

No, Dan said 'not in my lifetime', and gangzoom said 'a lot sooner than that', then later agreed with a clarification in the region of 'less than 16 years'. That was all in response to the assertion labelled 'EV taking over' which is a very woolly statement to start with, but that is the assertion I was responding to, using my own criteria to determine when EVs have 'taken over', as described in my posts.

 

There will 'always' be ICE powered vehicles 'around', as they are such an important piece of our history.

 

Exactly when they reach a point which you can label, 'in ascendence', that's a hard one to call. If you want another metric, when 50% of vehicles are EV, I'd go with about 20 years, just a gut instinct, it would be difficult to express why I think that.

Edited June 8, 2017 by Aashenfox

[docwra]

EV's are a stopgap, possibly not for very long either.

 

https://www.limacharlienews.com/science-tech/fusion-breakthrough/

 

This is the future, right now.

[Strudul]

But Dan's comment was in response to Zoom's initial statement which stated "brand new" cars.

 

It's gonna get confusing if we start redefining criteria.

Edited June 8, 2017 by Strudul

[Aashenfox]

My criteria are in my posts, I'm not confused, what I said is clear, whether or not it directly relates to what someone else said changes not the meaning of the post or its relevance to the topic, take it as a statement on its own if you like. In that case you could say it was erroneous of me to open with 'I support you except this', since I then slightly warped 'this' to make my own statement, but hey ho, it's all good.

Edited June 8, 2017 by Aashenfox

[Strudul]

Well going back to the previous point, I agree that most brand new cars will be EVs in the near future.

[Jay84]

EV's are a stopgap, possibly not for very long either.

 

https://www.limachar...n-breakthrough/

 

This is the future, right now.

Ace, an ARC reactor car

[Aashenfox]

Define near future. A billion years is the very near future in galactic terms. Not trying to be obtuse, it's key to the point when this will happen. And are we talking about the uk or all 1st world nations?

[Strudul]

Define near future. A billion years is the very near future in galactic terms. Not trying to be obtuse, it's key to the point when this will happen. And are we talking about the uk or all 1st world nations?

I thought the plans for many manufacturers were along the lines of significant increase by 2020 and a majority (some high % that I've forgotten) by 2030/35?

 

1st world only.

 

India seems to be planning for only electric cars to be sold by 2030, though that might be a bit of a stretch.

Edited June 8, 2017 by Strudul

[Zeezeebaba]

Affordability range and charge times within a few minutes. Crack that and EVs will fly out of dealerships.

I also like the look of the X in black

[gangzoom]

Affordability range and charge times within a few minutes. Crack that and EVs will fly out of dealerships.

 

 

Apparently the battery packs going into the <$30K Model 3 will be able to handle 300KW charging, that potentially means 50kWh (175mies range) added in 10 minutes. The first Model 3 will be rolling off the line in a little over 30 days, so it's all coming together pretty quickly .

Edited June 9, 2017 by gangzoom

[Aashenfox]

Fast charging is always a trade off against the overall longevity of a battery. You can bet that people will be advised to 12h charge when they have the comfort and only fast charge in emergencies, or face changing the battery ($$) significantly sooner than might otherwise have been needed. Just saying.

 

I put it to you guys... let's say a new battery cost 5000 quid (because if it really does do 1000x500 mile cycles, it should last pretty much the life of the car), and was able to log at what wattages it had been charged, in order for the dealer to know what type of charging had been done and therefore, whether it was abuse or genuine warranty failure...

 

When you picked up your car, the dealer told you...trickle charge when not using the car for a period, normal charge daily (let's optimistically say 6 hours, in order to get it done during almost anyone's sleep cycle), and use the 20 minute option only if you have to, cos each fast charge takes 100% more toll on the battery than a 6 hour charge. Fast driving (sic: fast DIScharging) ALSO has a detrimental effect on the overall longevity of lithium batteries, so factor heavy feet into the longevity as well as the average range per charge.

 

Let's then say, that the battery lasts 1000 cycles of 500 mile range in perfectly optimal conditions. In reality, let's say the average battery will take 750 cycles and reliably produce 300m range of VARIED driving, not optimal. So that;s a total battery life of 225,000 miles. Right, now let;s say you're lazy or forgetful and you consistently remember half an hour before you go somewhere, '@*!#, I haven't charged the car', so you fast charge it more often, and you reduce your battery life by half.

 

Now, if you know you aren't the most organised person AND you have a heavy foot, you'll be looking at a 6 grand bill (including labour, probably), every 100,000 miles.

 

How often would you fast charge? How much effort would you make to increase the life of a battery? Would this be a pain in your ass worrying about it compared to a trip down the petrol station? How often would you launch the car, knowing the cost on the battery?

 

And lastly, let's not forget that when a combustion engine nears the end of its life, it keeps going, albeit smokily and roughly, if you try to keep working a dying lithium battery, you'll have a major fire, so there won't be an option of 'soldiering on' with a weak battery, it will be completely disabled by the vehicle once the individual cells drop below critical voltage, as that's the danger zone.

 

This may seem like a lot of assumptions, but it isn't, these are EXACTLY the concerns we have with hobby batteries, I mentioned good ones are ferociously expensive before, and have fewer cycles, as well as degrade over time, so you have to really consider the impact of each charge. You can do what you want with them, you can charge them RIDICULOUSLY fast if you want, but it doesn't do them any good at all, so it's always a trade off. It's a lot of variables which will mean that the worst and best users will get RADICALLY different longevity and performance out of their batteries.

Edited June 9, 2017 by Aashenfox

[Jay84]

Putting aside the fact i mentioned earlier with Coldel about noise and styling, range needs to be (and I can see that it is getting better) a factor. Simple things like in a petrol car you can drive from the North to Devon on 1 tank of fuel without stopping (not in a zed obviously ). You can then tool around a couple of days before filling up. Now i know people only go on holiday 1 or 2 times a year making that journey, and day to day living for most charging twice a day can be achievable (at home and at work). Or consider camping at Silverstone fore the GP. Turn up Wednesday, no electric charge points, there until Monday.

I do get that these are rare circumstances though, and if owning one is considerably cheaper than burning T-Rex, you caould hire a car for things like that and still be quids EOY.

 

Once again I've said lots but said nothing lol

[gangzoom]

Putting aside the fact i mentioned earlier with Coldel about noise and styling, range needs to be (and I can see that it is getting better) a factor. Simple things like in a petrol car you can drive from the North to Devon on 1 tank of fuel without stopping (not in a zed obviously ). You can then tool around a couple of days before filling up. Now i know people only go on holiday 1 or 2 times a year making that journey, and day to day living for most charging twice a day can be achievable (at home and at work). Or consider camping at Silverstone fore the GP. Turn up Wednesday, no electric charge points, there until Monday.

I do get that these are rare circumstances though, and if owning one is considerably cheaper than burning T-Rex, you caould hire a car for things like that and still be quids EOY.

 

Once again I've said lots but said nothing lol

 

Tesla Superchargers are appearing all over the place. Going from Leicester to London there are now three sites along the M1/M25 all are 6 bay+. A 10 minutes stop for a wee break adds 60-70 miles of range.

 

 

Doing massive intercontinental trips using the Supercharger network is pretty easy these days.

 

 

The good thing about EVs is you can literally charge them anywhere there is a 3 pin socket, even a P100D Model X will suck juice from a 3 pin plug with no issues. I've charged the Leaf in all kinds of places the weirdest was via a half screwed in socket in a barn a local farmer had let me use when out on a stag do up a hill in the Peak District.

 

Edited June 10, 2017 by gangzoom