The 2017 GE & Politics Thread

[Jay84]

You cant help but think in France with a terror attacks they've had, must be affecting the votes.

[Ekona]

I'm still hoping Le Pen can pull off a miracle and win. Mainly because I have a fiver on her to do so

 

Certainly a shift in momentum then, although it nicely illustrates the global shift to the right: We're now looking at a centrist and far right party as the dominant ones, rather than the standard left & right wing parties as you say. Same thing as over here really, Corbyn isn't really far left at all, he's just more left than the central ground that Labour (and the Tories) have shared for the last twenty years which makes him look extreme.

[mbs]

I'd be really worried if Le Pen wins, the rest of the EU will be scared to death that the Brexit/Le Pen effect spreads throughout the EU, in which case they will really comes down hard on the UK in the Brexit negotiations to send a warning to any other country thinking of doing the same.

 

Getting back to the UK election,I'm hoping for an increased Tory majority which would then allow May to go for a softer Brexit outcome without worrying about her hard line right wing causing problems.

[Richf]

Phil Hammond making noises about being restrained because of the promise not to raise income tax, and then quick PR from Tory HQ saying that this doesn't mean that he will if they get in. Very poorly timed comments from him, and I'm not so convinced that he wouldn't like to push the standard level of income tax up by a percent just to make life easier. I don't think he will, not before Brexit.

 

Little things like that can quickly become big things in the media these days.

 

Yeah this tax thing has me worried, I think we are already too heavily taxed, I did put Tory on the poll but thinking that I might change my mind , no point me voting anyone else in my area though

[Ekona]

Getting back to the UK election,I'm hoping for an increased Tory majority which would then allow May to go for a softer Brexit outcome without worrying about her hard line right wing causing problems.

We'll get whatever Brexit deal the EU will let us, in reality. The only major question is whether they can cobble together a temp trade deal before the two years are up, or whether they cop out and just extend the existing access as long as we carry on paying the amount of money into the EU that we currently do. The first option is a bodge and could make things awkward/rushed; the second one is a political nightmare as the opposition (whoever they may be) will jump on that as a weakness of the PM, even though it would be the right call to make for the long-term. Two years simply isn't long enough to get anything reasonable sorted, and A50 was never actually designed to ever be used.

 

I suspect we may officially leave the EU in 2019, but we won't notice any differences to anything until many years after that.

[mbs]

I agree your second option would be the right option and with an increased Tory majority she could be able to agree something along these lines without the fear of a few Tory hardliners voting against.

[coldel]

We have already seen even the idea of an extension being politically kicked around by the opposition - its kind of one of those inevitable things that you don't talk about until it comes and smacks you on the nose on the day. Its been nearly 1 month of the 24 we have available already passed and it only feels like days ago May submitted A50, two years will fly by.

[Jetpilot]

I'd be really worried if Le Pen wins, the rest of the EU will be scared to death that the Brexit/Le Pen effect spreads throughout the EU

 

It already is and should speak volumes about why those votes are being cast that way, i said earlier in here that i am sure the only reasons the Tories got their majority at the last election was because they offered the referendum, who knows how many more votes Ukip "may" have got if they hadnt offered that.

[coldel]

There was a number of large studies doe prior to the UK referendum that asked people 1. do they want a referendum and 2. how would they vote in one. Only one country significantly showed an interest in it and would vote out which was Italy. The other 12 countries according to the poll would vote to remain. I genuinely do not believe there is this huge majority in every European country wanting out. There is a much bigger group than historically there were, but we are looking at sizes like you will see in a couple of weeks in France as per the ideal (putting my neck on the line here!) but Stay getting twice as many votes as Leave. If I were living in continental Europe I wouldn't want to be voting blindly for a party based on an EU out policy, not until I saw what the UK ends up with.

[Jetpilot]

I think you are being very generous to the average voter (myself included), i dont believe they/we look that far ahead, rightly or wrongly and as before, its impossible to predict any deal any country could generate and i would imagine it will vary greatly between countries and what they do or dont bring to the table.

Edited April 24, 2017 by Jetpilot

[coldel]

The research is what it is I guess, given what you know now, what would you do? It certainly answers the questions around the mood of Europe and I don't think from any empirical evidence I can see such a big swing to Leave as we have seen here. The Netherlands spoke that way not long ago and France appear to be doing the same now.

 

Which is why the EU have to win the war, not some small battles in the divorce proceedings. They will not want to be seen to be giving the citizens of Europe a raw deal compared to the UK. It would take a monumental balls up by the EU negotiators not to achieve that either sadly.

[Jetpilot]

Even if LePen gets in, France as a nation still have to vote to leave, so who knows and absolutely i would still vote to leave.

[Jetpilot]

Just read Corbyn has said the snp are a poor imitation of the real thing, I am not sure whats funnier, jc thinking they are the real deal or the snp arent even as good as them, priceless.

[coldel]

I think the biggest unknown is what JC will do when he gets completely trounced in the election, will he still sit there firm in the belief he is doing any good for this country in terms of providing credible opposition.

[Jetpilot]

Well he has done it before when his party gave a vote of no confidence, so why not again?

[coldel]

I guess with the general public also now effectively giving him a vote of no confidence, there is only so far you can fall back on the excuse of 'members voting me in' - if he performs worse than Ed the Red he must have to go.

[Stutopia]

I'm sure he will in that circumstance, not least of which because he'll have had the opportunity, missed it and there'll be little point in cracking on. It'll be interesting to see who steps up next and how far toward the centre thier willing to go in pursuit of whoever the swing voters are, then not wooing them.

 

I was reading the paper the other day and saw described Corbyn as "hard left", it took me a second to realise that promoting social mobility and nationalising the railway is considered hard left now. I always assumed Cuba and the USSR were the hard left

[Ekona]

Anyone catch Corbyn's speech yesterday regarding Brexit? He says that Labour will immediately guarantee the rights of the 3M Europeans living in the UK, wants to stay in the Single Market but also wants to change migration rules, and bizarrely replace the Great Repeal Bill with their own EU Rights And Protections Bill.

 

On the guarantee of the EU nationals' rights I can see why he'd want that, although as said elsewhere it's bonkers to go into an important negotiation giving away a trump card so soon, but each to his own. I agree it'll happen both ways regardless.

 

Staying in the Single Market means accepting free movement of people. End of. These two are mutually exclusive as Cameron found out to his loss when he tried to negotiate his way out of dealing with a Brexit vote. To claim otherwise is simply a lie.

 

And as for dropping the GRB, which let's not forget actually enshrines in UK law all those EU rights on workers that Corbyn desperately wants to keep (and tbh it's not like the Tories have said they want to get rid of any parts of it yet anyway) and then replace it with something that, on the face of it, sounds identical except it'll cherry pick the bits they want rather than keep it all. Is he utterly bonkers? Does he realise just how complex all these laws are? It's impossible to devise a usable law protecting worker's rights within the two year timescales that encompasses everything without either causing massive disruption and change to existing businesses, or without missing great big important bits out. The government know this, which is exactly why they've already said they'll just absorb the whole lot now and then sort out the bits they want to dump later. That's of course the sensible option, so why would JC want to do otherwise? It's change for the sake of change, and shows that he has zero grasp of how running a country actually works.

 

 

And all that said, all we've heard in the last week has been from JC, TF and NS. It's about time TM actually spoke up and let us know what her policies are, I'm a little disappointed she's giving the limelight over so easily. It won't do her any favours, unless she's trying to give them enough rope to hang themselves with. Which isn't really working yet and is a dangerous tactic IMHO.

[Flex]

I'm hoping there'll be a lot more people register and vote this time around.

[coldel]

Absolutely, mate. It is so important to cast a vote - you only have to look at the huge under-representation of the younger age group in the brexit referendum which effectively meant a leave vote instead of stay. And thats in a vote where every vote counts, let alone our current GE approach. In our area of Richmond, Zac Goldsmith had a 24,000 majority, in the by election 1 year later he lost to a political unknown, when big issues are driving voting decisions, anywhere is worth voting in, you never know how it could swing.

[coldel]

What will be interesting is we are starting to see the nerves around Brexit appear, Nestle the latest company to shift operations due to 'external circumstances' closing 300 jobs in the north east to move them to the continent. This is really poor PR for the current government given the short run in to the election, I wonder how TM will handle the inevitable media frenzy. And how much JC will balls up his attempts to make a political point of it...

[Stutopia]

I had to chuckle this aft reading about who's prepared to launch a nuclear strike, not just retaliation for another nuclear strike but as a first strike option

 

They may as well be arguing about who's prepared to invade Mars or what preparations we need to make for Dragon invasion. Anything but talk about things that have an outside chance of impacting a genuine human.

[Ekona]

You mean we don't already have plans for a dragon invasion?!

[Ekona]

Tell you what made me laugh this morning, Labour's announcement that all NHS staff will be given a pay rise and that tuition fees for training will be cancelled. What planet are they actually on?

 

No-one disagrees with the fact that frontline NHS staff don't really get paid enough, or work too many hours for the pay they do get. No arguments at all. However, the country simply does not have the money to pay them any more, not without either sacrificing something else or increasing taxes to pay for it. This is basic KS1 maths, if you can't afford it you can't have it. Let's not forget we also have a thumping great Brexit bill to pay for in the next couple of years which we'll need to fund from somewhere.

 

This is as blatant an empty promise to win votes from people who are too stupid to realise it cannot be done as easily as that as I've ever seen in an election. And yet, the Tory response was just to say that only they can guarantee a strong NHS by having a strong economy: Whilst I don't disagree with this, it's hardly going to make anyone suddenly vote for them. Why they haven't got someone out there to simply ask the obvious "How will you pay for this?" question to Corbyn, I've no idea. Really poor PR.

[Jetpilot]

^^^ Because they have zero idea how to pay for it (that goes for any party) apart from raise taxes, more duty on fuel, fags or drink etc and hence a reason why I cant be bothered to watch the debates, you wouldnt actually get a true answer, just some diverted spin towards the opposition.

 

As you say, just a stab in the dark at getting votes from nhs workers.