The 2017 GE & Politics Thread

[Ekona]

I think we'll look back in twenty years and realise that Brexit was the best thing to happen to the UK. I still believe we're in for a very rough time before then which will affect my life more than having a rosy time when I'm looking to retire.

[docwra]

Retired politicians in 20 years time may well look back at their hubris in thinking Britain was somehow better than other countries and could be a major world player on our own, with no other justification that we think we ought to be important.

 

I think the fact that Winston Churchill memes and a blatant lie on the side of a bus were probably the main thrust of the "leave" campaigns advertising suggests this is the case.

[Zeezeebaba]

No we haven't, we have had low inflation and higher wage increase levels which meant people can improve their standard of living. That is now the reverse.

 

What you probably mean is that things like housing are high in parts of the UK, which they are. But then most G8 countries have the same issues. In terms of salary cannot be bothered to go hunting the stats but I believe we are about middling, on par with France and Germany but no where near as high as somewhere like Switzerland (but thats more due to the type of employment in smaller countries).

 

Bull, things might be rosy for you mate but I've not had a pay rise in 3 years. I don't care much for stats, I'm not the only one in this boat either. The level of inflation is relative to the cost of living for us normal people.

Things are expensive, not just property.

 

I certainly haven't seen any increase in the standard of living for the people in my life in fact it's the reverse and predates the referendum by nearly a decade.

 

Edited June 23, 2017 by Zeezeebaba

[Stutopia]

Don't worry, the weak pound is charging in to make all our imported goods cheaper! No wait, it doesn't work like that does it, hang on.

 

The slump in migrant labour coming to work on farms will mean higher wages for farm workers, which will make food cheaper for everyone! No that's wrong too.

 

Err. yeah it turns out inflation has been low, but the rise in wages has been even lower. Inflation is on the rise though, so that will mean more disposable income for everyone. Gosh, that one is wrong too.

 

[Zeezeebaba]

Exactly

[Zeezeebaba]

A rough road ahead, maybe by the time I retire at 75 things will improve!

[coldel]

Your personal situation is not a reflection of the economy of the UK and neither is mine - what is BULL if you want to put it that way is thinking your personal situation is a reasonable way to make a statement like you did about the country as a whole. I haven't had a pay rise either if you want to raise that but haven't then come to the conclusion based on my single data point thats whats happening as a whole, thats just rather naive.

 

If you use real numbers, AWE or average weekly earnings show that they are now at their lowest since 2014, so we have seen 3 years of decent AWE vs inflation which has been higher than inflation for the last few years. Inflation in fact back a few years ago was threatening to go negative.

 

Personally I will read macro economic numbers and make a conclusion on that, if you want to use your own and your mates personal views on what you think you are earning vs spending then thats fine as well. I know what I think makes more sense personally and what is BULL.

[Jay84]

Coldel I imagine you work with data and numbers in some way, you always sound number savvy . My earnings have steadily increased over the last few years, but mainly through new jobs/promotions and bonus.

[Sargara]

We've also got the lowest unemployment since 1975, I recommend you change jobs Zeezeebaba and get that overdue payrise elsewhere.

[BobbyZ]

It is a concern that some people are acting as if we're in the Great Depression or something. It's natural for economies to have peaks and troughs, but it seems like a very vocal section of society aren't happy unless money is constantly falling from the skies. Any excuse to slam the Tories and capitalism I guess...

[Zeezeebaba]

We've also got the lowest unemployment since 1975, I recommend you change jobs Zeezeebaba and get that overdue payrise elsewhere.

 

Figure manipulation again, the stats are reflective of that. Shall we talk zero hours contracts etc.

[Zeezeebaba]

Your personal situation is not a reflection of the economy of the UK and neither is mine - what is BULL if you want to put it that way is thinking your personal situation is a reasonable way to make a statement like you did about the country as a whole. I haven't had a pay rise either if you want to raise that but haven't then come to the conclusion based on my single data point thats whats happening as a whole, thats just rather naive.

 

If you use real numbers, AWE or average weekly earnings show that they are now at their lowest since 2014, so we have seen 3 years of decent AWE vs inflation which has been higher than inflation for the last few years. Inflation in fact back a few years ago was threatening to go negative.

 

Personally I will read macro economic numbers and make a conclusion on that, if you want to use your own and your mates personal views on what you think you are earning vs spending then thats fine as well. I know what I think makes more sense personally and what is BULL.

 

My mates? My statement was based on everyone I know bar a lucky few. So your wages have remained static too. Interesting that.

 

I do still however love the Celica your running.

 

I earn fairly good money, my other half is an accountant and earns good money. We have two offspring a mortgage and no debt. We scrape by with minimal ability to save.

I'm sure we could increase our standard of living by borrowing against the house etc.

 

We live in Hampshire and I originally come from Surrey. Maybe if we relocated elsewhere our lot would be better.

It could well be our cost of living is regional and not a national trend who knows.

 

Statistics and figures are one thing, easily manipulated. The average voter wont base their decision on all these lovely positive vibes being trawled out. They base their vote on their own personal circumstances. This is why we are in the situation we are in. The brexit politicians tapped into this and exploited it to the full, they saw an opportunity and took it. Stating such things as immigration, really! Immigration has assisted us in paying for the baby boomers retirement, without it things would have been worse.

 

We have been continually lied to over successive governments and there is no trust in the establishment at all. Same old same old, naive is believing everything and ignoring the reality of what's going on around you.So with all these positive stats and waffle why on earth are we debating leaving the union. Rising incomes and low inflation, record employment, hey I hear you but millions have not based on their own personal circumstances.

 

Edited June 23, 2017 by Zeezeebaba

[Jetpilot]

Sorry Codel, but you are so dismissive of any other views on this subject, its flat out arrogant, i do fully respect your views and opinions and digest anything you post on the subject, but its all conjecture without ANY fact, hardly surprising when as said before none of us know what will or wont happen. Lets see what the Eu want from us and what we want from them, its not a one way street dude!

[Ekona]

Col is one of the few people using facts to back his arguments up. I don't always agree with them, but it makes his arguments more robust than just "Everything will be amazing, you'll see!".

 

It really, really won't. Not in the short term. And TM and her rubbish election campaign is going to massively hurt us further down the line.

[Stutopia]

It's not going to be alright if you guys don't start to believe in Brexit, like Teresa did when she was advocating against it.

[Ekona]

In fairness, I should point out I've changed my tune on Brexit and would now vote for it if it were held again tomorrow.

[Jetpilot]

Col is one of the few people using facts to back his arguments up. I don't always agree with them, but it makes his arguments more robust than just "Everything will be amazing, you'll see!".

 

It really, really won't. Not in the short term. And TM and her rubbish election campaign is going to massively hurt us further down the line.

 

As said, I fully respect his knowledge and his posts. There are no hard facts though, even today I read an article regarding the banking sector and job losses due to Brexit, but as of yet, there is no confirmation and likely to be a lot lot less than the drama queen responses this time last year, so all I am saying is lets wait and see and stop condemning every post to the opposite.

[Ekona]

I think it's been better so far than expected, ignoring the dramatic drop in value of the pound that's a terrible thing, but I don't think we've seen the worst and won't until the Brexit negotiations are done with.

 

And speaking of them, I really hope they're not done in public like we've seen today about the UK offer to EU immigrants. FFS both TM and EU, keep your feelings on the matters private, stop sharing it with everyone!

[glrnet]

I think it's been better so far than expected, ignoring the dramatic drop in value of the pound that's a terrible thing, but I don't think we've seen the worst and won't until the Brexit negotiations are done with.

 

And speaking of them, I really hope they're not done in public like we've seen today about the UK offer to EU immigrants. FFS both TM and EU, keep your feelings on the matters private, stop sharing it with everyone!

Ha! I wills top watching the news if we're subjected to this for the next 15 months!!

[BobbyZ]

I think it's been better so far than expected, ignoring the dramatic drop in value of the pound that's a terrible thing, but I don't think we've seen the worst and won't until the Brexit negotiations are done with.

 

And speaking of them, I really hope they're not done in public like we've seen today about the UK offer to EU immigrants. FFS both TM and EU, keep your feelings on the matters private, stop sharing it with everyone!

 

I feel that May has started talking a lot more openly in response to the criticism that she wasn't open, was trying to do it all her own way. Since the election it seems like she's trying to present herself in a more open, moderate way. I agree with you on this, but ultimately I think she felt she had to address that reason for her lack of popularity.

[JetSet]

I think we'll look back in twenty years and realise that Brexit was the best thing to happen to the UK.

 

I doubt I'll be around in 20 years but I think the entire opposite, I can't back my gut feeling up with facts but neither can anyone else 'cos no one can predict what'll happen in 5 years time let alone 20 but I'm fairly confident that no matter which governments run the country in the next 20 years they'll screw up any potential benefits somehow.

 

Pete

[coldel]

OK apologise if I sounded dismissive earlier, it wasn't the intention. I do step out of this conversation a fair bit and jump back in as I don't want to be seen to owning it. I try to use facts i.e. numbers from the ONS etc. which are reflective of the country performance as whole and try not to rely on links to news publications etc. which will have a political influence - how else can we talk about the country as a whole without using countrywide indicators. Things like wage inflation and price inflation are globally accepted indicators of a countries performance.

 

I guess I probably spend far too much time reading on politics, but hope I can raise some facts in the face of common myths that are tossed out there by labour, tories, leavers, remainers and the like. I know I lean towards remaining and probably quite centrist but funny enough I have swerved all over the place over the last couple of years the more information I gather on the subject.

[Zeezeebaba]

OK apologise if I sounded dismissive earlier, it wasn't the intention. I do step out of this conversation a fair bit and jump back in as I don't want to be seen to owning it. I try to use facts i.e. numbers from the ONS etc. which are reflective of the country performance as whole and try not to rely on links to news publications etc. which will have a political influence - how else can we talk about the country as a whole without using countrywide indicators. Things like wage inflation and price inflation are globally accepted indicators of a countries performance.

 

I guess I probably spend far too much time reading on politics, but hope I can raise some facts in the face of common myths that are tossed out there by labour, tories, leavers, remainers and the like. I know I lean towards remaining and probably quite centrist but funny enough I have swerved all over the place over the last couple of years the more information I gather on the subject.

 

I must also apologise for answering one of your posts using the word "bull".

It certainly wasn't a personal dig.

AWE for any given month is the ratio of estimated total pay for the whole economy, divided by the total number of employees. As a result, AWE is not a measure of rates of pay and can be affected by changes in the composition of an enterprise’s workforce.

My response wasn't just a personal one but one bourne out of the experience of both myself and my peers.

Certain sectors fair better than others, public sector workers seem to have suffered more than most. Stats are fine in essence but don't necessarily reflect a true picture if based on an average. A fat cat boss earning a ridiculous wage is thrown into the pot with everyone at the base level of the earning ladder . A fat pay rise for a CEO curried as an average with someone on 17k a year doesn't really ring true.

 

Yes it gives a gross national average regarding economic decision making but doesn't reflect an accurate enough picture for the average earner.

[Toon Chris]

In fairness, I should point out I've changed my tune on Brexit and would now vote for it if it were held again tomorrow.

 

That's interesting. I have been against, then tried to embrace it, and then flip-flopped all over. The two main points that keep me coming back to 'remain' are the stone in my shoe of the way the campaigns were run (Gove, I honestly believe should be tried for treason if this goes pear-shaped), and the relations with other Europeans. Yes that last one is personal but then isn't this all quite personal. I have a lot of friends and acquaintances who are non-UK and this web spreads out into work to. No matter I didn't vote for brexit, they all see the entire UK as having something against them and telling them to F-off. That's a real shame.

[Jay84]

Give Gove to the teachers, they'd do worse that try him for treason i think from when he was education secretary .

 

I think Brexit is something the nation is flip flopping around, because ultimately, we have no idea of the repercussions. We might become the strongest nation on the planet. Or we might become a third world nation. All we can really do is speculate. Speculate and hope.