The 2017 GE & Politics Thread

[coldel]

Actually the poll which came out this morning was using the same approach they used to be one of the few companies to predict a Leave win for Brexit.

[Ekona]

Labour have produced a stunning campaign, and the Tories the biggest clusterf*ck of one I've ever seen. No arguments here at all.

 

That said, it would be amazing (and frightfully disappointing in terms of people simply switching based on media campaigns) if the Labour wipeout in the locals was reversed in just a few weeks. I've still got money on Corbyn to be PM at ridiculous odds though, so I'm okay

 

Do Labour voters really believe that Corbyn will be able to do half of what he says? Tory stuff is relatively easy to believe as it's deathly dull and obvious, but some of the Labour policies are pie-in-the-sky stuff.

[Stutopia]

^^^

 

#JezWeCan

 

 

Anyone watch Paul Nuttal talk rubbish? You know he invented the question mark

[Aashenfox]

Its so pathetic they attack May for not appearing at 'teh squabble'. She said she wouldn't and she didn't. Respect. If she HAD turned up she would have earned my disdain.

[Stutopia]

Its so pathetic they attack May for not appearing at 'teh squabble'. She said she wouldn't and she didn't. Respect. If she HAD turned up she would have earned my disdain.

 

Definitely would, have you seen her engage people when they're not vetted!

 

[Aashenfox]

Yeh, I was wondering if there was some kind of appropriate self assessment at play, being out of the loop for 15 years, I don't know much about the personalities in British politics any more, but I couldn't help thinking 'Hm, maybe she's not as sharp when put on the spot?'...

 

And if that's the case, I can't say I find that as a negative. There are a couple of people here at my office, who aren't the brightest bulbs in the chandelier, however, they compensate by being methodical and careful, and as a result, their work is more often 'right first time', than people who have notably more 'horsepower' but tend to jump in. I don't think that's a bad quality to have in a leader.

Edited June 1, 2017 by Aashenfox

[coldel]

When May made the decision to stay away, she had a healthy majority, these were not deemed important and there seemed little to be lost by not turning up. But, it seems it has generated a lot of negative publicity around it and Rudd fell short. I am worried where this GE is going, the only reason it was called was because May felt she was comfortable enough to win easily and strengthen her Brexit hand, however a series of PR balls ups by the Tories has pushed it into unexpected territory...I can only assume the Tories know she is not great at debating and are looking to protect her from a mauling she wouldn't handle on live TV.

[Aashenfox]

Democracy is a popularity contest, nothing more, that's why it's failing. Because GE success no longer has anything whatsoever to do with political smarts or an appropriate vision of the future.

 

I'm fully expecting some kind of TRAGIC result the next GE, because all referendums and elections in the world for the last 2 years have favoured the reactionary, sensationalist agenda.

[Stutopia]

Despite recent polling I still think we're on course for a tragic result, there's so many people who won't admit to voting Tory to pollsters.

[Aashenfox]

In my opinion a strong Tory majority is the least tragic result. You want Trumpland? Where the next leader promptly undoes just about everything their predecessor did? Doesn't make for good forward progress I reckon, especially with Brexit coming up, you want to be dealing with all the changes that Labour want to make as well?

Edited June 1, 2017 by Aashenfox

[Stutopia]

Personally, I want a fairly smooth Brexit, retention of freedom of movement and access to the single market. So it wouldn't need a whole lot of finessing. Leaving plenty of time for the other things. Equating a Tory loss to Trumpland, is just plainly incorrect. What would be these colossal Tory achievements that have gone on in the last few years that Labour would reverse, akin to Obamacare.

 

Has the debt been paid off?

Has terror stopped?

Are NHS waiting lists down?

 

All they've actually achieved is:

• booting a number of disabled people off benefits
  
• sacked 19,000 coppers
  
• screwed up what should have been a fairly straight forward referendum
  
• brought the NHS to it's knees
  
• some schools are asking kids to bring a bog roll in each
  
• tax cuts
  

 

It's not like I'm going to burst into tears if any of these achievements are reversed!!!

[coldel]

If we are putting political leaning aside and think about many things we care about:

 

1. It will takes decades to pay off the debt, the Tory pledge was to get rid of the deficit which is a different thing

2. Terror will never stop, we have created a world with unlimited communication and ability to inflict terror, any one can do this on their own or with support

3. The NHS has always been failing, but no one has the cash to put it right

 

Have a read here, I usually as a rule do not post up links on politics rather read my way through stuff and draw a personal view, but its easier this way!

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/14/how-much-of-the-conservatives-2010-election-manifesto-was-implemented

 

Like with the Lib Dems, everyone jumped on them for failing on the student fees (which they did but as debated previously, they were the minority part of the coalition) but they also achieved around half their manifesto even whilst in that position. Its really interesting to read how manifestos play out with a proper review.

[Jetpilot]

Despite recent polling I still think we're on course for a tragic result, there's so many people who won't admit to voting Tory to pollsters.

 

I had a little read on how the polls are done, it seems as though they arent based on people just actually saying, i will vote tory, labour, lib dem etc but on a computer model based on answers from certain age groups in certain areas and who they will "likely" vote for and then the rest of the model is based on those answers , it would appear the labour rise is based on the younger age group getting out to vote, if this doesnt happen in the numbers they estimate, the Tories will still hold a large majority, as Ekona says, i cant believe in just a few weeks hundreds of thousands of people have jumped ship, i would bet not many on here have changed their voting opinion?

[coldel]

Absolutely this ^^^

 

Polling isn't just counting stuff, it uses expansive statistical methods to evaluate data and present a likely result based on profiles and historical data. Yougov are the ones you will usually see as a 'source' at the bottom of any poll, have a read here about how it is done https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/31/how-yougov-model-2017-general-election-works/

 

It is confused by the language that the media will use, we for instance have a 'poll' on this thread which is a straight count of stuff, but a poll can also be as above which is where a lot of data miners and statisticians do their best to predict variability and overlay on claimed responses in surveys.

 

Interestingly, since polling has gone online (some 15 years ago) rather than clipboards in the street the effect you describe Stu (which is real) has decreased massively, people would always default to what they think is the right thing to say when faced with an interviewer compared to what they really want to say via a survey via their device.

[AliveBoy]

it would appear the labour rise is based on the younger age group getting out to vote

All the new young people who are coming to vote, surely it also depends on their locations? In Woking for example, 10,000 youngsters suddenly voting for labour wouldn't even half their deficit to the tories based on the 2015 result.

 

edit: double quote by accident

Edited June 1, 2017 by AliveBoy

[Aashenfox]

Personally, I want a fairly smooth Brexit, retention of freedom of movement and access to the single market. So it wouldn't need a whole lot of finessing. Leaving plenty of time for the other things. Equating a Tory loss to Trumpland, is just plainly incorrect. What would be these colossal Tory achievements that have gone on in the last few years that Labour would reverse, akin to Obamacare.

 

Has the debt been paid off?

Has terror stopped?

Are NHS waiting lists down?

 

All they've actually achieved is:

• booting a number of disabled people off benefits
  
• sacked 19,000 coppers
  
• screwed up what should have been a fairly straight forward referendum
  
• brought the NHS to it's knees
  
• some schools are asking kids to bring a bog roll in each
  
• tax cuts
  

It's not like I'm going to burst into tears if any of these achievements are reversed!!!

To change the evils of the world, often introduces worse evils.

 

I can't think of a UK example, so I'll give you a Greek one. We pay NUTS money for cars. I've mentioned before that a good 350Z over here with say 50k miles, clean and smart, in full working order, will run you about 18 grand. So, I hear you say, why don't we buy from Albania and Bulgaria and import them for less than half the price? The answer is because the Greek government has import laws which are all its own and do not conform with (in fact they directly contravene) EU standards, the EU fines Greece every year for this policy, but they don't change it, and the EU doesn't REALLY want us to change it either. I won't describe the policy in detail, but it makes it literally impossible to import a car economically, unless it's something super rare. Example, when I first came to Greece I wanted to import a Corrado VR6 from Germany, would have cost me about 3 grand for the car. The equivalent car here at the time was going for about 8 grand. I thought I'd be able to import one for less than the difference. Nope, the bill would have been 11 grand on top of the purchase price. Insane, right? This should be changed!!

 

But if they do change it...what happens? Firstly, the bottom falls out of the Greek car market (the only market still operating at close to normal levels), don't even get me started on the second hand car market, who will all lose half their value overnight, as they've already paid import duties (or a price for the cars) for the cars they have in stock at the inflated rate, so a LOT of money leaves the economy (or the government compensates them (govt has no money)), then you've got the devaluation of existing cars on the road, my Zed is no longer worth (let's say) 12 grand, it's worth 6. I personally have lost 6 grand from my overall value and so has everyone else in the country, removing another SHEDLOAD of money from the economy (as much as 10% of the net worth of all the greek people).

 

So this evil has to stay, nothing can be done, because the alternatives are worse. Now I'm not saying I know for sure that those 'achievements' you listed fall under that category, but I bet some do, particularly the NHS conundrum. There isn't enough money, we all know this, people are living too long, if there is a better solution, tell them please, they need to know.

Edited June 1, 2017 by Aashenfox

[Zeezeebaba]

Wake me up when it's all over.

[AliveBoy]

Wake me up when it's all over.

 

Midday next friday

[Aashenfox]

When you're wiser and you're older?

[BobbyZ]

Yep, people blaming the NHS situation on the Tories are just scapegoating. Sure, Labour would probably throw more money at it, but if the money isn't really ours to throw then it's only making the situation worse in the long term.

[Ekona]

If you want to be paying more for stuff, you vote Labour. If you don't, you vote Tory.

 

None of the parties have produced a properly costed manifesto, but only one is promising the Earth will miraculously change in the next five years. It won't. The NHS will still be crap and giving contracts to the private sector, education will still be against the wall due to having zero money, and there won't be a single copper more on the streets. It took 50 years of multiple governments to make things this bad, it ain't gonna be fixed in 5 regardless of who is in, and I don't think things will get better with the Tories in either!

 

Above all else, remember this is a Brexit choice. If you genuinely believe that JC will get a stronger deal for the UK for the next 30 years then by all means vote for him, and I'll fully respect your decision. If you doubt that for a second, then vote for TM. Honestly, nothing else remotely matters, and its promises of a better world overnight that has put us in the place where we need to consider Brexit all over again.

[Ekona]

Plus, I'm fed up paying more for my holidays. You saw the pound plummet again when there was a sniffle of Corbyn winning at the election, so do it for me if for nobody else!

[Stutopia]

If you want to be paying more for stuff, you vote Labour. If you don't, you vote Tory.

 

That does rather neatly sum things up, though I would add you do tend to get what you pay for from a service.

 

As for Brexit negotiations, up until a month or so ago, I would have agreed that May appeared to be more capable of getting a better deal (that's a bumming with a cigarette after, instead of just a bumming) but recently she's flip-flopped around, shown a complete inability to cope under even the lightest fire from even the tamed journos. All this "bloody difficult woman" stuff is just bluster, I've not seen anything underneath it or even any evidence of it. It's all been rather limp for someone who aspires to Thatcheresque levels of steel.

[Jetpilot]

it would appear the labour rise is based on the younger age group getting out to vote

All the new young people who are coming to vote, surely it also depends on their locations? In Woking for example, 10,000 youngsters suddenly voting for labour wouldn't even half their deficit to the tories based on the 2015 result.

 

edit: double quote by accident

 

I am only going on what i read and maybe that is a failing of the computer model, based purely only demographic rather than majorities held in certain seats.

[coldel]

It takes into account seat estimates also, if you look here you can see a 4% difference in voting intention would result in about 60 seats difference (more than 4% of available seats)

 

https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/