Brexit 23rd June..?

[rtbiscuit]

I honestly think (I know i'm shortening this to a base level to make it easier to explain and I don't believe it is that simple) this has got to be played out like a game of poker, from the start before the out vote was confirmed and the last 12 months of run up has been one large version of call my bluff. with the EU basically calling us out to see if we mean it. with no real intenetion of making any change.

 

whats shocked them is we just pulled out a hell mary pass. and it needs to be played out. its all a waste if we just fold and do what they want. the whole fact that there is a mass of uncertainty is part of its advantage. the fact we voted this way has already started the ball rolling of them having to inact change. something we could never have done if we'd stayed at the table.

 

what they also have to deal with is that there are going to be more cards on the table soon, no gaurentees but several others could be pushing for a referendum, if the EU think there is enough risk that they'll come unstuck it could change the negotiation table.

 

I still don't think we'll leave, I think they'll be some shinanigans in parliament and they'll hold a vote, they'll all vote to stay and we'll end up staying. but hopefully by that point it gives the EU the nudge to change it needed.

 

if of course we do leave it might give us the leverage to get the deals we want/need.

 

if we just left no arguments then the proposed Norway model etc is exactly what we'll get. if we roll over straight away it gives the EU time to regroup in order to deal with the next few issues.

 

if we were to leave slowly take our time; yes it will have an economical hurt in the short term but it could mean that in the spring the EU is fire fighting on multiple fronts a quick and easy deal would be far more appealing.

 

I don't know if this is the plan, but it makes no sense to come out and directly say just that, its like playing a "boris" play dumb but actually be pretty switched on with your end goal.

 

its a major gamble which could have horrific fallout if it goes the wrong way, but if played out and timed well could see things not as bad as people think. I should add at no point do I think it will be easy or without sacrifice. I've been through financial hardship I wouldn't want to again and my job in the public sector is probably high risk if it all goes belly up. but I weighed it up and decided it was worth the risk, I didn't take the decision lightly and my childrens future is riding on this as much as everyone elses.

[Adrian@TORQEN]

We've not heard from Osborne yet since the results, have we?

 

Nope. He needed to properly weight over the weekend what happened on Thursday and the small reaction of the markets on Friday.

 

Is not random or coincidence they've chosen the result day to be on Friday, is usually a very quiet trading day, most traders go out early for drinks and dinners, having made lots of money over the week.

 

Just spoke to a friend, senior trader, they've been working today, preparing for the next hours, they're already at work.

 

I don't like the sound of that, hopefully it's not going to be bad tomorrow and Tuesday.

 

Christine Lagarde from IMF just said that markets underestimated what happened and reacted very lightly on Friday...

[Ekona]

All elections and referendums are on a Thursday, aren't they?

[Adrian@TORQEN]

For the exact reason above

 

Markets and investors need political and economic stability, elections always bring uncertainty.

[Ekona]

I just checked, it's not for that reason at all:

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Election_Day_(United_Kingdom)

 

Election Day in the United Kingdom is by tradition a Thursday. It has been suggested that this tradition arose as the best of several circumstances: Friday pay-packets would lead to more drunken voters on Fridays and weekends; having the election as far after a Sunday as possible would reduce the influence of Sunday sermons; many towns held markets on Thursdays, thus the local population would be travelling to town that day anyway.

 

Edited June 27, 2016 by Ekona

[Adrian@TORQEN]

Back in 1248?

[leonk]

Back in 1248?

 

Who were we voting for in 1248? As far as I know the first General Election was in the late 1600's.

[Adrian@TORQEN]

Figure of speech, as in long time ago.

[leonk]

Figure of speech, as in long time ago.

 

Ah, got to be careful with figures plucked out of thin air these days...

 

All in jest Adrian.

[Ekona]

Link now fixed, it wasn't working correctly with the bracket on the end that Wiki pops on.

[gangzoom]

£ is continuing to drop against the $, food/fuel costs are guaranteed to start going up, a total lack of leadership at central government on what to do next, there isn't even a creditable opposition party to take over, various parts of the country talking about breaking up the union, the next 6 months isn't going to be fun for anyone.

 

I do wonder just which multinational company will want to commit future investments to the UK now, there is both financial and political uncertainty at a level I suspect no one has seen before. Boris has played a blinder interms of getting into the job he was after, but I suspect he may end up doing a Gordon Brown, regardless of how people voted if pay starts going down, jobs been lost, cost of living goes up his political career is also finished.

Edited June 27, 2016 by gangzoom

[Adrian@TORQEN]

Speech was delivered.

 

Osborne says Treasury made a series of predictions about impact on the economy and says there were a range of impacts but all of them "required an adjustment in the economy" (recession).

 

He says he will work very hard to mitigate the impact and remind people of the strengths of the British economy.

 

Meanwhile Japan is first international victim of our decision, investors are buying JPY and USD, as safeguard.

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/japan-emerges-as-key-victim-in-fallout-from-brexit-2016-06-27

 

Markets opening in EU in a few minutes, let's hope for the best.

 

Seatbelts on!

[gangzoom]

^^ The markets will do what they want, what will be really worrying is if big companies really do stop spending money in the UK. Around here out side Derby there is a massive Toyota factory, most of what they makes goes to Europe. Toyota also have factories all over Europe, so the real test will be where companies like Toyota choose to make their next model. If these big companies decide for what ever reason not to keep on investing in the UK the consequences don't even bare thinking about.

[WINKJ]

Speech was delivered.

 

Osborne says Treasury made a series of predictions about impact on the economy and says there were a range of impacts but all of them "required an adjustment in the economy" (recession).

 

He says he will work very hard to mitigate the impact and remind people of the strengths of the British economy.

 

Meanwhile Japan is first international victim of our decision, investors are buying JPY and USD, as safeguard.

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/japan-emerges-as-key-victim-in-fallout-from-brexit-2016-06-27

 

Markets opening in EU in a few minutes, let's hope for the best.

 

Seatbelts on!

 

I don't think you seem to realise that the vote leave camp knew this would have a short to medium term negative impact on the economy? What you're saying or posting isn't news nor is it a surprise. A lot of people seem to underestimate the fact that "leavers" are looking to the future and to the prosperity that leaving The single EU market is likely to have on the UK.

 

On a personal note I think it speaks volumes that the minority in the UK can't accept that a decision has been made and we should not accept it, knuckle down and move on...

[Adrian@TORQEN]

Speech was delivered.

 

Osborne says Treasury made a series of predictions about impact on the economy and says there were a range of impacts but all of them "required an adjustment in the economy" (recession).

 

He says he will work very hard to mitigate the impact and remind people of the strengths of the British economy.

 

Meanwhile Japan is first international victim of our decision, investors are buying JPY and USD, as safeguard.

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/japan-emerges-as-key-victim-in-fallout-from-brexit-2016-06-27

 

Markets opening in EU in a few minutes, let's hope for the best.

 

Seatbelts on!

 

I don't think you seem to realise that the vote leave camp knew this would have a short to medium term negative impact on the economy? What you're saying or posting isn't news nor is it a surprise. A lot of people seem to underestimate the fact that "leavers" are looking to the future and to the prosperity that leaving The single EU market is likely to have on the UK.

 

On a personal note I think it speaks volumes that the minority in the UK can't accept that a decision has been made and we should not accept it, knuckle down and move on...

 

Oh, I have accepted it, just watching it unfolding

[WINKJ]

Speech was delivered.

 

Osborne says Treasury made a series of predictions about impact on the economy and says there were a range of impacts but all of them "required an adjustment in the economy" (recession).

 

He says he will work very hard to mitigate the impact and remind people of the strengths of the British economy.

 

Meanwhile Japan is first international victim of our decision, investors are buying JPY and USD, as safeguard.

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/japan-emerges-as-key-victim-in-fallout-from-brexit-2016-06-27

 

Markets opening in EU in a few minutes, let's hope for the best.

 

Seatbelts on!

 

I don't think you seem to realise that the vote leave camp knew this would have a short to medium term negative impact on the economy? What you're saying or posting isn't news nor is it a surprise. A lot of people seem to underestimate the fact that "leavers" are looking to the future and to the prosperity that leaving The single EU market is likely to have on the UK.

 

On a personal note I think it speaks volumes that the minority in the UK can't accept that a decision has been made and we should not accept it, knuckle down and move on...

 

Oh, I have accepted it, just watching it unfolding

 

I know you have from the thread. However there is a significant amount of people that haven't and won't by the looks of it!

[Ekona]

Actually, I'll be honest and say that the market reaction wasn't/hasn't been as bad as I suspected. It's still been awful, but I expected much worse last week.

 

This is a promising sign.

[Adrian@TORQEN]

Personally I think it's a very small amount of people voting leave that really understood the short to medium term negative impact on the economy. We debated this many times here, it was an emotional vote against immigration and the establishment, not many people thought "economy" when voted leave.

We're all in this mess, we need to stick together and sort it out, but we're at the mercy of political games of both political parties.

 

Delaying invoking article 50 is either another political play, where they hope to cancel the referendum, or a very stupid decision to wait and pass the dead cat to the next government. That's not the leadership we need now, sadly.

[coldel]

Actually, I'll be honest and say that the market reaction wasn't/hasn't been as bad as I suspected. It's still been awful, but I expected much worse last week.

 

This is a promising sign.

 

The markets in most major countries pumped money into the system - they had a plan based on previous crashes and enacted it Friday morning. If they had allowed things to just 'go with it' no doubt the pound would have disappeared from existence, it was artificially kept afloat.

 

To the point above about long term, a couple of things. Firstly that many leavers seem to believe that 2 years is the defined length of pain, so you can see they havent read in to this at all - 2 years is the length of time we have been told to sort out the exit, its not a defined length of time for a recession. Secondly longer term could mean companies exiting the UK if we enter the WTO model or that we do not negotiate a great deal with the EU - so long term yes we could see less foreign investment.

 

Is that a given? Of course not, but its a real and huge risk. Many leavers talk about a prosperous long term as a certainty, there is the real possibility that we end up just as constrained by European law as we a week ago - but with our economy instead of recovering in fact being sat on its backside.

[RS8055]

Dark times at the moment. Not saying that all leave voters are like this obviously, but it seems that quite a few racists are coming out of the woodwork! Not exactly making me proud to be British!

 

Whatever it is that happens now, people need to calm it down. My feeling is that there should be a re-run of the referendum considering the revelations post-result and the fact that it was such a tight margin.

 

Referendums with larger margins have been ignored or re-run in the past.

[Chesterfield]

I do wonder just which multinational company will want to commit future investments to the UK now, there is both financial and political uncertainty at a level I suspect no one has seen before.

 

To play devil's advocate, any US company eyeing up property just got a near 15% reduction before taking into account stamp duty etc.

[Adrian@TORQEN]

I do wonder just which multinational company will want to commit future investments to the UK now, there is both financial and political uncertainty at a level I suspect no one has seen before.

 

To play devil's advocate, any US company eyeing up property just got a near 15% reduction before taking into account stamp duty etc.

 

I think they'll be waiting for further price drops before making any purchase

[WINKJ]

Dark times at the moment. Not saying that all leave voters are like this obviously, but it seems that quite a few racists are coming out of the woodwork! Not exactly making me proud to be British!

 

Whatever it is that happens now, people need to calm it down. My feeling is that there should be a re-run of the referendum considering the revelations post-result and the fact that it was such a tight margin.

 

Referendums with larger margins have been ignored or re-run in the past.

 

I really think you need to be careful throwing around accusations of people being racist (and I know you're not pointing at anyone on the forum, it's just a dangerous term to be used so freely). Not only that it's an absurd accusation as leaving the EU will not prevent immigration, it will just limit EU immigration into the UK thus potentially providing more opportunities for residents of other countries in the world to come to the UK and work. Or if you are calling people racist for caring about sovereignty .... that also doesn't make you a racist.

 

A re-run in my opinion is an absolutely absurd idea - not only will it exponentially increase the negative impact to the economy, it just re-enforces that democracy in this country is not where it should be.... exactly what the leave EU camp want to change.

 

 

edit: just noticed your location too -

• Location:The Tax Haven, Luxembourg
  

 

Edited June 27, 2016 by WINKJ

[gangzoom]

I do wonder just which multinational company will want to commit future investments to the UK now, there is both financial and political uncertainty at a level I suspect no one has seen before.

 

To play devil's advocate, any US company eyeing up property just got a near 15% reduction before taking into account stamp duty etc.

 

Why would they do this, the property market as it is was already a bubble waiting to go pop. No real increases in wages but house prices going up 5-10% year?? The current housing market is propped up by low interest rates and people taking on extra debt.

 

There is real potential now for another financial @*!# storm, only this time itll make 2008 look like a sunny Sunday walk in the park.

[coldel]

I think there is no doubt some Leave votes came about based on racist views, I don't think any of us should deny that. It is going to be a small percentage but it will certainly have happened.

 

No we shouldn't re-run it, but I cannot believe there were no hard and fast rules announced beforehand, a result of 51.8 vs 48.2 is so marginal you could imagine if we ran this again tomorrow remain could quite possibly win. The government should have said it has to be at least X percent clear with at least X percent turning out.

 

So as Bockaark has said it is now all of our responsibility to not only get on with this but hold all the Leave campaigners responsible to follow through on their commitments they made. That includes spending on the NHS, removal of VAT on energy etc.

Edited June 27, 2016 by coldel