Brexit 23rd June..?

[HaydnH]

Unless the government actually publicise their plan I'll be voting to stay in. For example, what happens to the current migrant workers? Will the need visas etc? Until they cover that stuff off I can't believe they've looked at leaving in any detail to determine whether it's actually a good idea or just bullying power to get a better deal.

[coldel]

Yes the amount of extra laws required for an exit is mind-boggling. What happens to Brits in the EU working, I think from memory something like 250k of them, they would all effectively need working visas, would they then fall under local laws that dictate they have to speak the local language to work there? I would suspect this is why the Leave campaign are preying on the people that know little about this and promising to close the borders because immigrants cost the country so much (ignoring the fact that long term British born unemployed are a huge drain on the country) which is not true and something which is pretty much unenforceable.

[Adrian@TORQEN]

I would imagine there are more Brits working in EU than 250k, out of a total of 2.2mil living in EU.

 

[coldel]

Well there you go, many more Suspect the 1m living in Spain are over the age of 65 though

[Adrian@TORQEN]

Well there you go, many more Suspect the 1m living in Spain are over the age of 65 though

 

Yeah, bloody immigrants going abroad to steal other people's jobs, putting pressure on their national health system :lol:

 

2.2mil only in Europe

 

On a more serious note, this is what Cameron had to say about the referendum:

 

 

 

[Adrian@TORQEN]

Oh, and I'm very surprised only 45 people on this forum care about this serious debate, casting their votes on this thread. I was expecting few hundred votes at least!

[RobPhoboS]

From my personal point of view, regarding immigration since it's been mentioned

I have zero problem with people coming here to work, and to start a new life and doing their best to learn English.

I have a huge problem with uneducated masses arriving and expecting hand outs and segregating themselves.

 

It would be good for people to do as the OP said, research first and make up your own mind.

Stop feeding from mass media, it's all bloody biased as fook

[coldel]

Here's a very real scenario for you, by August this year Boris Johnson is prime minister, the UK is out of Europe and sat in a transitional state of economy with the pound plummeting in value, major businesses are sitting in board rooms talking about where to relocate their industy and Scotland are campaigning hard for a second referendum to exit the UK. I admit David Cameron is hardly pulling up trees at the moment, but that scenario simply fills me with despair...

[BobbyZ]

Oh, and I'm very surprised only 45 people on this forum care about this serious debate, casting their votes on this thread. I was expecting few hundred votes at least!

 

Is it really that serious for most people? I can understand that for someone with their own business (such as yourself) there might be implications, but I seriously doubt it will affect the average person. I would imagine that it will cause the markets to slow a bit and some people might lose their jobs etc., but it's not like being in the EU has stopped that before, or would prevent it happening going forward.

[coldel]

From my personal point of view, regarding immigration since it's been mentioned

I have zero problem with people coming here to work, and to start a new life and doing their best to learn English.

I have a huge problem with uneducated masses arriving and expecting hand outs and segregating themselves.

 

It would be good for people to do as the OP said, research first and make up your own mind.

Stop feeding from mass media, it's all bloody biased as fook

 

The Evening Standard and Metro in London are so biased its almost becoming a joke to read. The two page spread on Zac Goldsmith in the Metro where he waxes lyrical about the EU exit on his morals (of which he has few despite his environmentalist stance) should have had 'Advertising Feature' written at the top of it - I haven't seen the equivalent article on Sadiq Khan yet...

[coldel]

Oh, and I'm very surprised only 45 people on this forum care about this serious debate, casting their votes on this thread. I was expecting few hundred votes at least!

 

Is it really that serious for most people? I can understand that for someone with their own business (such as yourself) there might be implications, but I seriously doubt it will affect the average person. I would imagine that it will cause the markets to slow a bit and some people might lose their jobs etc., but it's not like being in the EU has stopped that before, or would prevent it happening going forward.

 

If cost of imports goes up (and lets consider that say 75% of whats in your average supermarket is imported) because the trade deals agreed are not as favourable as being in the EU, the cost for you to eat goes up. Some worst case scenarios put it at potentially thousands of pounds out of pocket on everyday good costs. So yes, the impact could be very real, the EU 'in' trade deals are there to ensure massive businesses can trade across the free market - businesses that sell food, electronics, etc. It couldnt be any more impactful on day to day.

 

Of course the flip side is we exit and the government pulls together the worlds leading team on trade negotiations and the EU generally bends over backwards for us to give us deals as good as or better than we have now. Thats the risk, it could go either way. This is more important (and I don't mean this flippantly) financially to 'man on the street' than the Scottish out referendum.

 

As for Ady's business, its the same as any parts manufacturing business that uses the EU, their prices go up, your prices go up. It affects everyone in the chain.

Edited February 25, 2016 by coldel

[Ekona]

Here's a very real scenario for you, by August this year Boris Johnson is prime minister, the UK is out of Europe and sat in a transitional state of economy with the pound plummeting in value, major businesses are sitting in board rooms talking about where to relocate their industy and Scotland are campaigning hard for a second referendum to exit the UK. I admit David Cameron is hardly pulling up trees at the moment, but that scenario simply fills me with despair...

Apart from the bit about Boris as PM, as I'd like that very much, I agree: It's terrifying.

 

Is it really that serious for most people?

It is, they just don't realise it. They don't realise just how deeply this will affect them, regardless of the outcome. Much like the GE, there's a lot of people who are just incredibly ignorant about the issues, even on a very basic level.

[Jetpilot]

As you know Codel, i have little to no knowledge, but was doing a little research, not on leaving, but pros and cons and came across this article:

 

Your views would be appreciate.

 

http://uk.businessinsider.com/reasons-why-uk-leaving-the-eu-brexit-is-a-good-idea-2015-10

[Adrian@TORQEN]

Oh, and I'm very surprised only 45 people on this forum care about this serious debate, casting their votes on this thread. I was expecting few hundred votes at least!

 

Is it really that serious for most people? I can understand that for someone with their own business (such as yourself) there might be implications, but I seriously doubt it will affect the average person. I would imagine that it will cause the markets to slow a bit and some people might lose their jobs etc., but it's not like being in the EU has stopped that before, or would prevent it happening going forward.

 

Bobby, forget about business here, I've only expressed my opinion as a simple citizen / average Joe, not business owner. A few reasons worth mentioning here, but there are a lot more:

• funded opportunities for young people to undertake study or work placements abroad;

• access to European health services;

• higher prices for German cars, French wines and cheese, Italian pasta and Parmegiano and so on

• being able to work and live anywhere in EU - see the 2.2 mil British immigrants in EU - they would possible require working visa or to return to UK which would have an even bigger impact on the country.

• because of companies willing to relocate outside UK after the LEAVE vote, that would mean huge job losses

• being able to travel anywhere in EU without visa, holiday prices would definitely go up a lot.

• as a Brit if you want to marry a hot Romanian girl it might be very difficult to settle together either in UK or EU.

 

Here is a good video from Financial Times:

 

 

and an interesting article from the Economist:

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21693584-leaving-eu-would-hurt-britainand-would-also-deal-terrible-blow-west-real-danger

 

[coldel]

Hey JP, I had a quick glance through the first half, it does feel quite a biased report (but as they are presenting reasons why rather than looking at all the pillars that should make up a decision and debating the pros and cons thats not surprising) but anyway some thoughts...

 

The EU is still in a relative infancy in terms of economic development, the fact that so many countries have added to the mix in just a couple of decades has compounded this. People tend to think that maybe 50 years is an age, but in economic terms is no time at all. For example the time given in the EU constitution for a country to exit the EU, just kick off 'how' it will actually happen is 2 years with a 1 year extension option.

 

The person also opens saying that the EU doesn't work together to solve issues like the Greek finance and the refugee crisis. I agree more could be done on the side of the Greeks, but there are clear guidelines when entering the EU on financial behaviour which the Greeks violated, more than once, the EU is not failing to act, its actually acting in line with how it should. The refugee crisis is unprecedented, but there are plenty of examples in the past where one country had to handle unprecedented refugee migration and failed unilaterally to sort it out. So I am not too convinced of the opening argument.

 

They then go on to say how strong we are in the EU and that they feel we are propping it up. Two things, firstly if we are so strong, why campaign to leave. Secondly, quite obviously, how can they prove we would be so strong if we were not in the EU? Most could argue that position because we are there, but its impossible to disprove that.

 

is the EU in decline? 37% world GDP in 1973 vs 22% in 2025 they claim - they deliberately ignore what the current EU GDP is, which is 23% - so the EU is not in decline. It HAS declined, of course it will have with the emergence of the Tiger economies in the 90s then BRIC (basically China and India) more lately. So including the other piece of data the current GDP the EU is predicted to decline by 1% over the course of 10 years, its not so startling a headline...

 

Sorry thats as far as I got...got a 1:30 meeting now!

[blobbish]

To early for me to have a granite opinion yet, but I feel that we'll never really know the truth. We need facts to make any sort of decision but there will be copious amounts of spin and fear mongering.

 

 

I don't think its clear cut commercially what the impact will be, short term or long term. Also even if we did vote 'OUT' then its going to take years.

 

I don't thing the current government is strong enough if we vote OUT either, they struggle enough as it is. As for Scottish independence, they chose to stay part of the UK, and they also have the save vote as everyone else to stay in the EU. They knew this was coming and I cant see how they can force another independence vote just because they don't like the results.

 

 

As for the changes DC has made, none are binding and can just be ripped up if we were to stay in, Its a little like Obama and congress.

 

 

We can guarantee one thing, lots of money will be spent on campaigns for both sides.

[Adrian@TORQEN]

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21693584-leaving-eu-would-hurt-britainand-would-also-deal-terrible-blow-west-real-danger

 

 

[Richf]

Higher prices for imports from the EU ?

 

Oh yes i remember the bonanza that happened when we joined and all of a sudden the price of BMW's went throught he floor ! lol

 

 

the prices didnt go down when we joined and they wont go down if we leave, the only way the prices would go up is if the UK stuck a levy on imports from the EU , cant see that that would automatically have a knock on effect on exports

 

Its a climate of fear being spread , seems to work

[JetSet]

Here's a very real scenario for you, by August this year Boris Johnson is prime minister, the UK is out of Europe and sat in a transitional state of economy with the pound plummeting in value, major businesses are sitting in board rooms talking about where to relocate their industy and Scotland are campaigning hard for a second referendum to exit the UK. I admit David Cameron is hardly pulling up trees at the moment, but that scenario simply fills me with despair...

 

Even more frightening is that by the end of the year Donald Trump could be president

 

Pete

[Ekona]

Higher prices for imports from the EU ?

 

Oh yes i remember the bonanza that happened when we joined and all of a sudden the price of BMW's went throught he floor ! lol

 

 

the prices didnt go down when we joined and they wont go down if we leave, the only way the prices would go up is if the UK stuck a levy on imports from the EU , cant see that that would automatically have a knock on effect on exports

 

Its a climate of fear being spread , seems to work

Of course prices will go up: There will be more paperwork involved on a B2B level which will get passed to the customer, and then there's the actual cost of leaving the EU: You can only imagine how much the lawyers are going to make by charging the government, so who do you think pays for that? Ultimately, it will cost the taxpayer billions in the short term. It might be via cuts, or it might be via taxes.

 

Whether we can make that back over 10+ years is an unknown, I'm not going to argue either way on that point as I simply don't know myself, but to suggest there won't be an immediate and very real cost is misleading at best.

[coldel]

Higher prices for imports from the EU ?

 

Oh yes i remember the bonanza that happened when we joined and all of a sudden the price of BMW's went throught he floor ! lol

 

 

the prices didnt go down when we joined and they wont go down if we leave, the only way the prices would go up is if the UK stuck a levy on imports from the EU , cant see that that would automatically have a knock on effect on exports

 

Its a climate of fear being spread , seems to work

 

I would recommend you google keywords such as free trade agreements within the EU and similar, this will explain how we currently operate in a bloc which is effectively a free market vs how it works if you are outside it. Leaving will (and campaigners agree on this on both sides) result in negotiations of new trade agreements the outcome of which will impact GDP - this could be positive or negative. It impacts jobs, economy and trade its so wide reaching I guess this is why Adrian is shocked that people are not showing any interest. I also think referring to 1970's as a reason for why things would behave the same now is somewhat irrelevant, the economic landscape is so far different its like saying turbos are useless on cars, they didn't need them in the 70's so why need them now...

[Richf]

I know about the free trade agreements but jumping to the assumption that a new agreement wont operate in a very similar way to how things are now is a leap.

 

The reason there is an agreement is that it benefits all parties , any agreements in the future would also have to benefit all parties

[Ekona]

A lot has changed since those agreements were made. We may well find that the beneficiaries may well not be us in the new world order.

 

This is the thing: There's so many unanswered questions and risks to leaving. Until the Leave camp can answer those questions, I can't see how they can claim any kind of high ground.

[Richf]

It is a worry for some but we are a huge importer from the EU and that is unlikley change but we live in a much more global market than we did when we signed up and there are options for us to import from countries that we couldnt before.

 

There is a great deal of unanswered questions about staying also

 

To assume the worst will happen and allow yourself to be swayed by fear is a little bit cowardly imo but all we see is scare stories about what would happen if we leave or if we stay

[coldel]

Honestly, read up, its not a leap its a fact and many countries trade in this way with the EU now. For example any country trading with the EU under a Free Trade Agreement whilst not under the EU banner is automatically subject to tariffs, lets take for example the Central External Tariff. Under this tariff food stuffs are subject to 15% and cars 10% duty to the importing country outside the EU which we will have to pay. So you immediately have those tariffs imposed on imports from the EU to the UK. The opposite also applies, exporting into the EU will be subject to additional tariffs.

 

In terms of the trading deals that will need to be struck, we will also have to negotiate what is effectively a debate on 'do you need us more than we need you' - at the moment we run at a trading deficit, we import more goods than we export, you could argue that means we need them more than they need us. Its more difficult to dictate terms if you are in that financial arrangement with a trading partner.

 

This is where the nervousness of major businesses are coming from, car manufacturers are one to consider, we export more cars than any other country in the UK, any financial impact on that trade will see the potential for manufacturers to up and move into an EU state to retain that trading status.