Ekona Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Here's a what-if scenario for you all... Let's say we vote Leave. Cameron steps down next year, which leaves Boris as a shoo-in for the party leadership. Nothing will happen on leaving the EU on our side until then, so that gives Boris three years as PM. Now, he'll most certainly want to carry on being PM and win the GE in 2020, so how best to achieve that? Certainly not by alienating voters on the Left any more than he has to, given they'll already have plenty of ammo aimed at him. His own party will back him and he's adored by UKIP voters too, so no fear of annoying them regardless. So how does he win the centre-Left? Well, one way could be to make some nice concessions to the EU in terms of the withdrawal agreement and/or trade negotiations. Just enough to keep the Left not completely hating him, but not enough so he looks weak. Now I like Boris, and I'd love him as PM, but he's also incredibly shrewd and clever. He'll do whatever it takes to keep hold of power, and he won't rock the markets any more than he has to to achieve his goals. I'm not saying this is a guarantee, but at the same time I don't for one second expect him to keep a hardline over this. Political suicide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GappySmeg Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 You get to vote for MEPs Not the same, and you know it. the EU Commission hold the power and makes the rules. You get no votes, no say. They're unaccountable, and unelectable. That's not really accurate though is it. The Commission is APPOINTED by the Council, in the exact same way our Lords are appointed by our Commons. They have a term (just like our Lords) after which they have to be re-appointed or ditched by whatever elected Council (or Commons) are in place at that time. It's a time-honoured and well-established shape for a democratic 2-house system, used the world over. How does that make what I said not accurate? You've just agreed that the decision making system is APPOINTED, not voted. That the system of decision making...the place where the real power is, is APPOINTED, not democratically elected. Because, it's not true to say you "no say", as you put it... it's a gross over-simplification. No democracy is perfect, its always a compromise... people have been trying to find the best compromise since the ancient Greeks. The EU democratic system is every bit as democratic (or un-democratic, depending on your viewpoint) as the UK system. How? You tell me how a Politburo style committe of decision makers, that you do not elect, you cannot dismiss, have no influence over, that meet in secret is the same as a Parliamentary democracy with elected representatives of the people, that all meet in one place, discuss the bills publically and openly and vote on whether an bill is a good one or a bad one, before they're allowed to make it law You tell me how the hell those two systems are the same Think you're confused... I'm likening our Lords to the EU Commission, and our Commons to the EU Council (in terms of electability at least, if thats a word). We do not elect our Lords, they are appointed, by those that we've elected, in the same way as EU Commissioners are appointed by the Councillors we've elected. Both sets of appointed houses (UK Lords and EU Commissioners) have a lifespan, after which they are re-appointed by the elected houses... it's really not that difficult to understand. As for "meeting in secret", not sure where that one comes from at all! Are you just referring to not being able to see them on Parliamentary Channel?!?!?! That's not the same by any measure. For it to be accurate, the House of Lords would have to be the House that makes all the laws and decisons. It's not, Parliament is. All the HoL does is read bills and rejects or amends them, they then get sent back to parliament to be revised/debated on. Both Houses are safety measures, and compliment each other. That's why so many countries around the world adopted the very same system. The EU commission, on the other hand, operates exactly like the USSR Politburo. Exactly. They're both unelected. They're both appointed. They both make laws and decisions as they see fit, and there is absolutely no recourse to oppose them, remove them, or elect them by the people. That is what you are voting for tomorrow, and I think 95% of the population, maybe more, don't realise that. They're voting blind. You keep saying that about the EU commission, but it's simply not true. UK: Elected House dreams up laws, Appointed house approves/denies/comments them. EU: Appointed House dreams up laws, Elected house approves/denies/comments them. (The fact they have to move to another city to do the approving/denying/commenting is one good reason to vote leave!) In both cases the Appointed House has a limited lifespan, and is appointed by the elected house. If anything, the EU is MORE democratic than the UK system, because in the EU the entire house gets to elect the "supreme leader", whereas in UK the largest party does it in isolation (and scarily, can theoretically do so whenever they feel like it!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HaydnH Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Interestingly there are some great wins for Cameron in the document such as here http://data.consiliu.../en/pdf#page=15 where we are not responsible in future for EU Euro member bail outs for instance. The fullfact.org* article on this subject: https://fullfact.org/europe/will-uk-pay-future-eurozone-bailouts/ *I've been quite impressed with fullfact.org, they've been quite impartial yet detailed in their posts during this referendum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HaydnH Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 UK: Elected House dreams up laws, Appointed house approves/denies/comments them. If it was 1910 possibly, since 1911 the house of lords can't reject legislation, they can only send it back down for reworking with a maximum delay of 2 years, adjusted to a maximum 1 year delay since the 1949 changes, after the 1 year delay the commons can force it through anyway as it's on behalf of the electorate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adrian@TORQEN Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 One from my Romanian friend, the CEO and Chairman of Canary Wharf Group: "One of these days, some time soon, my friend Boris Johnson will wake up and say to himself: “What have I done to this country? How have I helped to create a society split from top to bottom? How did I end up sharing a platform with Nigel Farage and the far right, with the allies of Marine Le Pen, Britain First and Donald Trump?†More profoundly, he might ask: “What would my hero Sir Winston Churchill say if he could see me now?â€" http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/immigration-rhetoric-poses-huge-threat-to-britains-stability-b2qz9kzc7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetpilot Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Out of all the dross on this thread, referencing Winston Churchill is without doubt the most laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sargara Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 “What would my hero Sir Winston Churchill say if he could see me now?â€" The same Winston Churchil that said: "We have our own dream and our own task. We are with Europe, but not of it. We are linked but not combined. We are interested and associated but not absorbed." I think the answer is fairly obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StevoD Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 (edited) I have left it till now to decided giving the out campaign a chance to sway. But they still clearly have no idea how it will work if we leave,they have no plan of action, which is essentially the same as jumping out of a plane without a parachute and shouting I will figure it out on the way down. Edited June 22, 2016 by StevoD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adrian@TORQEN Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 LOL! :lol: http://mashable.com/2016/06/22/metro-ad-laurence-taylor-brexit-eu-referendum-immigration/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetpilot Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 “What would my hero Sir Winston Churchill say if he could see me now?â€" The same Winston Churchil that said: "We have our own dream and our own task. We are with Europe, but not of it. We are linked but not combined. We are interested and associated but not absorbed." I think the answer is fairly obvious. Never let facts get in the way of a good story I have left it till now to decided giving the out campaign a chance to sway. But they still clearly have no idea how it will work if we leave,they have no plan of action, which is essentially the same as jumping out of a plane without a parachute and shouting I will figure it out on the way down. A curious question, being that the eu will not be stationary, I.e things will and are constantly evolving, you have faith they will make the right decisions but not the uk goverment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rtbiscuit Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 I have left it till now to decided giving the out campaign a chance to sway. But they still clearly have no idea how it will work if we leave,they have no plan of action, which is essentially the same as jumping out of a plane without a parachute and shouting I will figure it out on the way down. not technically true, its more like jumping out of an aircraft with a parachute, but A. you don't know who packed it, B. you don't know how big it is. C. you don't know if it works. D you don't know when to open it. but there are the means and requirements for a safe landing, but you just don't know until you pull the chord how its going to end. We know what trade looks like and how it works, we have examples of possible options and we know what the worst case scenario looks like as remain have been plugging Armageddon for weeks. yes all the fiscal studies economic etc show what the short term damage/protection is like if we stay or go. but non have projected longer term. we all know there will be a hit, could be short could be longer. but the big gain/gamble is if or when the EU fails how much better will we be not shackled to it, and already worked loose from it. The EU is stuck in a setup that is designed for national/international trade but its not best setup for universal trade. out could mean better possibilities for trade with emerging markets. china is on the cool at the moment but india and Pakistan are fast emerging, south America is another growing market. being separate could allow us to react faster yes its a gamble, yes there are a lot of what if's but unless we take the ballsy leap of faith that we have the skills and facilities to carry it out, then we'll never know. Greece and southern Europe hang round the EU like a hang mans rope, they can keep pumping money in but will it fix the situation, they technically need to wipe out and clear a load of debt to allow Greece to kick start, but that puts large European banks at a massive financial lose. they are stuck in a loop of punitive measures and financial bailouts. Add into that several new countries joining all of which are not as financially big or evolved means more financial balancing. the EU works by wealth distribution in order to get all members on a roughly equal par. new membership mean more money has to be spent and less is sent out to the richer countries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StevoD Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 As far as I'm aware the UK government will still be...... well governing the UK if we remain. And I'm sure the UK has made crap calls on its own in the past Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetpilot Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Not at all what i asked, nevermind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetpilot Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 new membership mean more money has to be spent and less is sent out to the richer countries. Let alone the eu accounts havent been signed of properly for 19 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adrian@TORQEN Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 I'm going to vote remain because I don't want EU to cut half of the Eurotunnel and move it to Turkey 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ekona Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 I'm going to draw a picture of Trump on my vote, and tick that. That'll mess with their heads. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rtbiscuit Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 I'm going to vote remain because I don't want EU to cut half of the Eurotunnel and move it to Turkey they won't do that, they'll build a 12 lane highway straight to the centre of Europe and pave it with gold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coldel Posted June 22, 2016 Author Share Posted June 22, 2016 Well all the nonsense from both sides is pretty much done. All gets underway proper tomorrow, will have to vote on the way home from work but still voting stay. Just no credibility to the Leave side to convince me to risk what I currently have. Sorry Leave campaign, I am In. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adrian@TORQEN Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 See you on the other side! Well, on the same side! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nievelc Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Today is vote day! Do the right thing and make a vote whichever way you perceive to be correct. Good night all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juggalo Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 As far as I'm aware the UK government will still be...... well governing the UK if we remain. And I'm sure the UK has made crap calls on its own in the past Oh I dunno. Defeating the Spanish and French, building two Empires, one of which was the greatest in human history. Giving the world democracy, civilisation, global trade, and the rule of Law. Removing feudalism in place of the Parliamentary democracy and giving the common man Rights via the Bill of Rights and the Magna Carta. Freeing Europe from German domination..twice. Developing Universal healthcare, the welfare state. Inventing 56% of everything that has ever been invented and gifting it to the world. I'm pretty sure we can manage without the EU 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glrnet Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Well all the nonsense from both sides is pretty much done. All gets underway proper tomorrow, will have to vote on the way home from work but still voting stay. Just no credibility to the Leave side to convince me to risk what I currently have. Sorry Leave campaign, I am In.Have to agree it's a relief all the nonsense is over, quite literally some of it was unbelievable and if it had been an advertising campaign it would have been banned. Quite ironic really that politicians and their campaigners are still allowed to categorically lie to us about something so important and it's ok. Whatever you do go and vote for what is important to you. Sent from my Zed using Nangkang tyres front, RE040's rear 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adrian@TORQEN Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 As far as I'm aware the UK government will still be...... well governing the UK if we remain. And I'm sure the UK has made crap calls on its own in the past Oh I dunno. Defeating the Spanish and French, building two Empires, one of which was the greatest in human history. Giving the world democracy, civilisation, global trade, and the rule of Law. Removing feudalism in place of the Parliamentary democracy and giving the common man Rights via the Bill of Rights and the Magna Carta. Freeing Europe from German domination..twice. Developing Universal healthcare, the welfare state. Inventing 56% of everything that has ever been invented and gifting it to the world. I'm pretty sure we can manage without the EU Not with weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy_Muxlow Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Is it not time to lock this thread now 😂😂 Sent from my iPad using a hammer and chisel... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glrnet Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Oooooo no, the fun could really start tomorrow😄 Sent from my Zed using Nangkang tyres front, RE040's rear 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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