Brexit 23rd June..?

[SmoggyPauly]

Yes the free movement issue isn't a big thing for me, but certainly for many a UKIP supporter it is the main reason to vote Leave.

 

Although we can point to varying models, we are unique in that we are not an outside country organising a deal with the EU, we are part of the EU leaving and wanting to renegotiate. Although there is no place for grudges in business, I would imagine there could be a bit of 'well you left, don't expect any favours from us' and as mentioned we export more to the EU than they export to us - we have to play our cards right (and I do not trust the current government enough to go in with enough balls to do it).

 

Less said about UKIP supporters the better quite frankly!

 

Most governments are swayed and listen to businesses and I doubt that many businesses in EU countries would be pleased if their governments made it hard for them to trade with the UK. We are worth too much to them...whether we are worth more to them than they are to us is immaterial really. The fact is we're important to them so why would they put that at risk?

 

The import/export figures can be manipulated any way you like but again, as I said in my post:

In March 2016 the fact is that £12,006 (£millions) were exported to the EU and £12,909 outside. They are the facts taken from HM Revenue & Customs report...I looked it up myself on the HM Revenue & Customs web site. In fact, the biggest buyer of our goods is the USA...by quite some margin (£956 million for March 2016 in fact).

If you then flip the coin and look at what we buy from the world, in other words, our imports - then you can see that in March 2016 we imported £19,642 (£millions) from outside the EU and £20,165 from inside, with Germany being the country we buy the most goods from. In my non-expert eyes, it seems that we are just as important to EU member countries as they are to us.

 

Of course, there is even a possibility that a vote out decision would spark serious debate across Europe and lead to a number of nations questioning their membership. This in turn could lead to the monumental reforms that I believe are necessary to make the EU what it should be.

That's just speculation though and shouldn't really sway anyones decision...

 

Either way, it makes for an interesting few months...because even a close vote to remain (which is likely) could spark some of the questions mentioned above!

[Adrian@TORQEN]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/17/heres-what-happens-in-the-72-hours-after-britain-votes-to-leave/

[Adrian@TORQEN]

EU referendum has gone virtually unmentioned and it is probably the most crucial detail: Parliament doesn't actually have to bring Britain out of the EU if the public votes for it.

 

That is because the result of June 23 referendum on Britain's EU membership is not legally binding. Instead, it is merely advisory, and, in theory, could be totally ignored by UK government.

 

This incredible detail is explained in a new blog post by Financial Times columnist and legal expert David Allen Green.

 

Green says that no legal provision was included in the EU referendum legislation that requires UK Parliament to act in accordance with the outcome of the referendum.

 

This is unlike the last referendum held across Britain, the Alternative Vote referendum held in 2011, where the outcome had a legal trigger and had to be acted on by the government of the time.

 

Instead, what will happen next if the public votes for a Brexit will be purely a matter of parliamentary politics.

 

The government could decide to put the matter to parliament and then hope to win the vote, Green says. In the scenario of Britain's EU membership being put to a Westminster vote, barring no dramatic change in allegiances, it is likely that MPs would vote to keep the country in the 28-nation bloc.

 

This is because the vast majority of the 650 MPs identify as Europhiles and would likely support a motion position to protect Britain's place in the EU.

 

http://uk.businessinsider.com/green-eu-referendum-not-legally-binding-brexit-2016-6

[Adrian@TORQEN]

"THE peevishness of the campaigning has obscured the importance of what is at stake. A vote to quit the European Union on June 23rd, which polls say is a growing possibility, would do grave and lasting harm to the politics and economy of Britain. The loss of one of the EU’s biggest members would gouge a deep wound in the rest of Europe. And, with the likes of Donald Trump and Marine Le Pen fuelling economic nationalism and xenophobia, it would mark a defeat for the liberal order that has underpinned the West’s prosperity.

 

The liberal Leavers are peddling an illusion. On contact with the reality of Brexit, their plans will fall apart. If Britain leaves the EU, it is likely to end up poorer, less open and less innovative. Far from reclaiming its global outlook, it will become less influential and more parochial. And without Britain, all of Europe would be worse off."

 

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21700637-vote-leave-european-union-would-diminish-both-britain-and-europe-divided-we-fall

 

 

[coldel]

Yes the free movement issue isn't a big thing for me, but certainly for many a UKIP supporter it is the main reason to vote Leave.

 

Although we can point to varying models, we are unique in that we are not an outside country organising a deal with the EU, we are part of the EU leaving and wanting to renegotiate. Although there is no place for grudges in business, I would imagine there could be a bit of 'well you left, don't expect any favours from us' and as mentioned we export more to the EU than they export to us - we have to play our cards right (and I do not trust the current government enough to go in with enough balls to do it).

 

Less said about UKIP supporters the better quite frankly!

 

Most governments are swayed and listen to businesses and I doubt that many businesses in EU countries would be pleased if their governments made it hard for them to trade with the UK. We are worth too much to them...whether we are worth more to them than they are to us is immaterial really. The fact is we're important to them so why would they put that at risk?

 

The import/export figures can be manipulated any way you like but again, as I said in my post:

In March 2016 the fact is that £12,006 (£millions) were exported to the EU and £12,909 outside. They are the facts taken from HM Revenue & Customs report...I looked it up myself on the HM Revenue & Customs web site. In fact, the biggest buyer of our goods is the USA...by quite some margin (£956 million for March 2016 in fact).

If you then flip the coin and look at what we buy from the world, in other words, our imports - then you can see that in March 2016 we imported £19,642 (£millions) from outside the EU and £20,165 from inside, with Germany being the country we buy the most goods from. In my non-expert eyes, it seems that we are just as important to EU member countries as they are to us.

 

Of course, there is even a possibility that a vote out decision would spark serious debate across Europe and lead to a number of nations questioning their membership. This in turn could lead to the monumental reforms that I believe are necessary to make the EU what it should be.

That's just speculation though and shouldn't really sway anyones decision...

 

Either way, it makes for an interesting few months...because even a close vote to remain (which is likely) could spark some of the questions mentioned above!

 

I think somewhere you are reading it wrong, UK exports to Germany and France alone are near our total exports to the US - then you have to add in the other 25 EU countries we export to. https://www.uktradei.../Pages/OTS.aspx

 

The EU is and has been for some time our largest trading partner with around 45% of exports going to the EU, for the US to be a bigger export market it would literally have to be our only other trading partner and exclude BRIC, India, Oceanic countries etc.

 

We are an important part of the EU I believe because of our financial services industry, that contributes hugely to our export business. Services are growing whilst physical goods shrink.

Edited June 17, 2016 by coldel

[rtbiscuit]

I find this guys funny with his interpretation of events

 

[media/]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jGC5S3ag1q0[/media]

Edited June 17, 2016 by rtbiscuit

[Adrian@TORQEN]

"Bill Gates, the world’s wealthiest man and the most generous philanthropist, warns today that Britain will be a “significantly less attractive place to do business and invest†if outside the European Union.

 

In a letter to The Times, the Microsoft founder, who has invested more than $1 billion in Britain, raises questions over his future commitment to the country if voters back Brexit next week. He indicates that access to the EU’s single market, which other European leaders say they will deny to Britain if it leaves the bloc, helped to swing Microsoft’s decision to site research facilities in Cambridge."

 

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/europe-was-key-to-my-1bn-funding-gates-warns-3jrpp7j3c

 

All these analysts, business people, bankers, experts and finance journalists are obviously so wrong, we must trust Boris, Gove and Farage. They know.

[Sargara]

Oh look another rich individual who has vested interests in the UK staying in Europe trying to persuade us not to trouble their potential future profits with our silly things like deciding how we want to live. Yawn!

 

Let me know when our PM gets to fly to America and tell them they need to integrate with Mexico yeah?

Edited June 18, 2016 by Sargara

[GappySmeg]

Oh look another rich individual who has vested interests in the UK staying in Europe trying to persuade us not to trouble their potential future profits with our silly things like deciding how we want to live. Yawn!

 

Let me know when our PM gets to fly to America and tell them they need to integrate with Mexico yeah?

 

Whilst you may be right about Gates, the fact is that the UK-EU relationship has been of big interest to academics for some years now which has resulted in thousands of academic papers being published on the subject, mainly regarding the economics of the relationship. The overwhelming majority of these papers and theses conclude that the UK is economically better of in the EU and that being in the EU makes the UK a more profitable place to do your business.

[GappySmeg]

I have to say, as someone with a scientific background, everyone regardless of side seems to be suffering from extreme "selection bias". This is the natural tendency of the brain to prioritise information that reinforces pre-conceived ideas, whilst dismissing those that go against our pre-conceived ideas.

Scientists (good ones!) study this effect and learn to overcome, to ensure they are objective about their findings.

 

People of BOTH persuasions are increasingly guilty of this, and all it means is there decision is NOT going to be based on the best available facts. In fact, people of sound intelligent mind are beginning to believe ANY old bull that supports the decision they've already made.

 

People... do your research. When presented with an article, question it. Does it quote it's sources? If not, that's highly questionable! If it does, go check out those sources.

 

A great example (it's a pro-leave article, but I simply don't have the time to post an article of each persuasion, so forgive the seeming one-sidedness) is this: http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/06/15/germans-largest-bank-says-massive-uk-grown-brexit-bbc-remainers-silent/

 

On the face of it, good news for pro-leavers... but delve into the article and although they've quoted their sources/references quite well, there is no link to the Deutsche Bank article which the whole article hinges off. Why?

Well, when you eventually find the Deutsche Bank article, it is NOT saying there will be massive UK growth at all... quite the opposite. It is actually an industry "memo" to investment bankers, explaining how they might be able to make some money out of the post-Brexit carnage! Stating that as stocks across the EU plummet, the UK historically tends to plummet at a slower rate... therefore the UK might represent a temporary financial safe-haven whilst the post-Brexit market crash plays out.

That really is not the same as "Massive UK Growth".

 

Point I'm making is, regardless of your political persuasion, stop believing the bull!

[SmoggyPauly]

I think somewhere you are reading it wrong, UK exports to Germany and France alone are near our total exports to the US - then you have to add in the other 25 EU countries we export to. https://www.uktradei.../Pages/OTS.aspx

What am I reading wrong? - I stated the biggest buyer of our goods was the USA. If you want to start merging countries together to prove we trade more elsewhere then thats fine, we can all do that...I could merge every non EU countries trade together to prove the same point. The exports to Germany & France alone might be close to the USA but the fact is, even though you merged two countries figures together, they are still less than the USA. Yes, you could then add 25 more countries to further prove a point but for every country you add, the point becomes less relevent.

The page you linked to states:

EU Exports for April 2016 were £12.0 billion. This remained unchanged compared with last month

Non-EU Exports for April 2016 were £13.0 billion. This was an increase of £0.1 billion (0.8 per cent)

 

See the figures can be manipulated in any way you want, and specific facts lifted to prove/disprove points. You can use imports, exports and a mixture of the two to make the figures suit your case.

 

But, these figures are all irrelevant unless it is believed that this trade will stop if we leave the EU, which we all know will not be the case. It's like using the argument that X amount of jobs depend on trade with the EU. Yes, I'm sure they do...but by saying that you are implying that all these jobs will be lost, which of course isn't true.

 

My point by adding trade figures was not to try and say we could do without the EU, of course we can't and anyone who thinks we can is grossly misinformed. The point was that our trade is much bigger than the EU and we are as important to them as they are to us.

 

I haven't checked the below figures (yet) as I just found this page, but it is an interesting list of who in the world we have trade deficits/surplus' with. It seems that most in the defecit table are EU and most in the surplus table are from outside the EU...

 

http://www.worldstopexports.com/united-kingdoms-top-import-partners/

[SmoggyPauly]

People... do your research. When presented with an article, question it. Does it quote it's sources? If not, that's highly questionable! If it does, go check out those sources.

 

Point I'm making is, regardless of your political persuasion, stop believing the bull!

Probably the most impressive & useful post to date...

[coldel]

...and that was the point I raised previously, engage with facts and draw your own conclusions. Posting up meme's, FB posts from randoms I have never heard of, propaganda videos from either side etc are really not worth considering. We are all going to make mistakes along the way but this is what this debate is about.

 

I set out originally on the fence, for me it was never a decision on whether I should be in or out. We are currently in and our current financial situation shows us what being in is all about, its about convincing me to vote out with something that was plausible and had some planning with the risks associated with it - the Leave campaign have not done enough in my view to convince me to vote out.

 

I guess however there are people (and certainly on this thread) who were always going to vote either way despite the facts put in front of them - and they are entitled to I guess but personally I was open to either route.

Edited June 18, 2016 by coldel

[gsexr]

As far as i`m concerned the main reason to leave is simple.

 

Whichever government we have in power they always manage to hide behind the EU for things that happen in this country.

Lets leave and then we can hold them accountable for things that happen if we don`t like it. They will have no one to hide behind.

 

Immigration aside, what things do you mean?

 

Quite simply i feel that whoever runs our country should be accountable and not be able to hide behind rules and regs laid down by others (the EU) when it suits them.

 

A government voted in by us should be directly responsible for what happens in our country and if we don`t like what they do we have a right to vote them out. Faced with this they may try a bit harder to get it right as they will have no one else to blame.

 

As they say..... it`s all bolocktics

[Juggalo]

"It is no accident that the European Parliament, for example, reminds me of the Supreme Soviet. It looks like the Supreme Soviet because it was designed like it. Similarly, when you look at the European Commission it looks like the Politburo. I mean it does so exactly, except for the fact that the Commission now has 25 members and the Politburo usually had 13 or 15 members. Apart from that they are exactly the same, unaccountable to anyone, not directly elected by anyone at all.

 

"When you look into all this bizarre activity of the European Union with its 80,000 pages of regulations it looks like Gosplan... an organisation which was planning everything in the economy, to the last nut and bolt,five years in advance. Exactly the same thing is happening in the EU. When you look at the type of EU corruption, it is exactly the Soviet type of corruption, going from top to bottom rather than going from bottom to top.

 

"If you go through all the structures and features of this emerging European monster you will notice that it more and more resembles the Soviet Union. Of course, it is a milder version.... It has no KGB – not yet – but I am very carefully watching such structures as Europol for example. That really worries me a lot because this organisation will probably have powers bigger than those of the KGB.... Can you imagine a KGB with diplomatic immunity?

 

"They will have to police us on 32 kinds of crimes – two of which are particularly worrying, one is called racism, another is called xenophobia. ... Someone from the British government told us that those who object to uncontrolled immigration from the Third World will be regarded as racist and those who oppose further European integration will be regarded as xenophobes....

 

"The Soviet Union used to be a state run by ideology. Today’s ideology of the European Union is social-democratic, statist, and a big part of it is also political correctness. I watch very carefully how political correctness spreads and becomes an oppressive ideology.... Look at this persecution of people like the Swedish pastor who was persecuted for several months because he said that the Bible does not approve homosexuality. France passed the same law of hate speech concerning gays. Britain is passing hate speech laws concerning race relations and now religious speech.... What you observe, taken into perspective, is a systematic introduction of ideology which could later be enforced with oppressive measures. Apparently that is the whole purpose of Europol....

 

"It looks like we are living in a period of rapid, systematic and very consistent dismantlement of democracy. Look at this Legislative and Regulatory Reform Bill. It makes ministers into legislators who can introduce new laws without bothering to tell Parliament or anyone. ... This can make a dictatorship out of your country in no time.

 

Vladimir Bukovsky

 

Last chance to get off the short bus to dictatorville.

Edited June 18, 2016 by Juggalo

[Juggalo]

Swiss Withdraw EU Application: Only ‘Lunatics’ Would Join Now

 

Switzerland has formally withdrawn her long-standing application to join the European Union (EU), as only “a few lunatics†now want to be involved with the bloc. The verdict comes just one week before Britons go to the polls to decide on whether to retain their membership of the political union.

Twenty-seven members of the Council of States, Switzerland’s upper house, voted in favour of cancelling the application, against 13 who opposed the motion. Two abstained, the Neue Zürcher Zeitung has reported.

 

The vote ratifies an earlier vote held by Parliamentarians in the lower house in March, which saw the motion to withdraw the application agreed to with an overwhelming majority of 126 in favour, 46 against.

 

In response to the federal vote, Switzerland’s foreign minister Didier Burkhalter confirmed that his country will now give formal notice to the EU to consider the Swiss application officially withdrawn.

 

Switzerland’s application to join the European Economic Area, the precursor to the EU, was lodged in 1992, but a referendum held the same year on the matter saw the Swiss people narrowly turned down the prospect of closer ties to the bloc, putting the application on ice.

 

It has never been seriously revived in the intervening 24 years, prompting Mr. Burkhalter to previously comment that the application has long been considered invalid.

 

Nonetheless, Thomas Minder, an independent representative said he was keen to “close the topic fast and painlessly,†adding that only “a few lunatics†still wished to join the EU.

 

 

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/06/17/switzerland-withdraws-application-join-eu-lunatics-join-now/

 

Iceland and Switzerland have their heads screwed on.

[GappySmeg]

Just for perspective, you do have to remember that the Swiss have been planning to drop their application for some time. The EU annulled their application to join quite a few years back as they no longer met the membership criteria... which as you can imagine seriously upset them!!!

[Juggalo]

The EU annulled their application to join quite a few years back as they no longer met the membership criteria... which as you can imagine seriously upset them!!!

 

Nice spin, but false. The Swiss annulled it. The Swiss weren't upset at the EU at all.

[GappySmeg]

Symantics... what i meant was the EU, shall we say "stalled" their application. Not sure of the term, but ultimately decided the Swiss couldn't join.

[Juggalo]

Symantics... what i meant was the EU, shall we say "stalled" their application. Not sure of the term, but ultimately decided the Swiss couldn't join.

 

No they could have, but the Swiss federation (Pro-EU at the time) advised the Swiss to vote against the EU in a referendum as they believed the country wasn't ready. Years later (today) the Swiss have completely pulled their application.

 

Let's be honest, if the most corrupt, and second most corrupt, countries in Europe could join, Bulgaria and Romania, then the Swiss would have no real issues.

[GappySmeg]

No they couldn't have... the legislation they introduced prohibiting movements of people contravened EU eligibility criteria.

I'm not for 1 second suggesting they're wrong to do that, just trying to put the full picture out there.

[Adrian@TORQEN]

"Amongst all this, one group of people has been largely ignored - the EU citizens already living here. There are estimated to be around 3 million EU passport holders living in Britain - around 5% of the UK population. This may come as a surprise as most are totally integrated into British life. It is likely that almost everyone in Britain knows someone in this position: they are friends, lovers, employers, colleagues, fellow-students, teachers of our children, academics, businesspeople, nurses and doctors.

We’re not talking about those who come for a short time to earn money and then return home. I’m referring to people who have made their lives here, found love, had children, settled into jobs, bought houses.

Most of these people can’t vote in the referendum - thanks to our bizarre rules, a French citizen living in the UK for 20 years cannot vote but an Australian here for 3 months can.

So those friends and colleagues who are EU citizens are relying on us to protect them. If the vote is to leave, these people would no longer have a guaranteed right to remain in the UK and many could be forced to leave."

 

http://www.huffpost.com/uk/entry/10502680.html?edition=uk

 

 

 

[Jetpilot]

^^^ Whilst in my other post i suggest people who pay into Britain should have a say, particularly more so than a Britain who doesnt pay in, but do we have a say about what goes on in France, Germany, Poland etc, did we get a vote in the Scottish independence, no it was nothing to do with us? and where does it suggest that those EU citizens will have to leave?

Edited June 19, 2016 by Jetpilot

[Adrian@TORQEN]

 

"The International Monetary Fund weighed in once more with its thoughts on Britain’s referendum, warning the U.K. could slide into a recession if it quits the European Union.

In a 64-page document, the Washington-based fund said that the size of the hit would depend on a multitude of factors, though its overall assessment is that the U.K. “would likely be worse off economically in the long run.â€

The IMF also warned of a potential credit squeeze if liquidity markets dry up, which could stymie spending and investment. The Bank of England has moved to preempt this with additional auctions to make funds available to banks before and after the vote.

 

In its report, the IMF presented forecasts for “limited†and “adverse†Brexit scenarios. In the worse situation, it sees growth slowing sharply this year and the economy shrinking 0.8 percent in 2017.

The impact would see the economy 5.6 percent smaller by 2019 compared with a baseline forecast, while unemployment would rise above 6 percent and the deficit would be wider.

IMF officials said that a permanent hit to output would probably mean deeper austerity. Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne has said an emergency budget would be required within two months of a Brexit to fill a hole in the public finances."

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-17/imf-revives-recession-warning-for-u-k-economy-over-brexit-vote

 

 

[Adrian@TORQEN]

"Because an exit from the EU on 23 June would represent possibly the most right-wing exit imaginable. Even a fanatical optimist cannot believe that the values of internationalism and equality will be reinforced by a Brexit in these circumstances.

 

The last four weeks have witnessed a re-emergence of views on a mass scale that seemed safely assigned to the past. The mainstream campaign to leave the EU has pandered to nationalism, has built a wave of anti-immigrant sentiment and has fostered a notion that outside the EU we can return to an age when Britain was the world’s foremost ‘great power’. "

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/a-plea-to-my-friends-who-want-lexit-this-is-not-the-time-a7075021.html