Brexit 23rd June..?

[HaydnH]

^^ A friend of mine runs a European wide distributorship, turnover 40 million, so pretty big. By his calculations due to increased paperwork, customs declarations etc he will have to print 15000 pieces of extra paper a month and an extra 50 hours man hours a month to process it, net result for him 1.5 million in costs.

 

Its not so much about duties and vat etc

 

The reality is, it will never cost him that, he will just buy a warehouse someone in the Eu and distribute from one location outside the UK.

 

Aren't customs electronic these days?

 

http://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/customs/policy_issues/electronic_customs_initiative/electronic_customs_legislation/index_en.htm

[Juggalo]

But we are on the winning side in 9 out of 10 votes on Euro policy? We are on the winning side almost all of the time (which puts to bed the whole 400 out of 500 lost argument often put around).

 

What makes you believe we pay such high levels of taxes? Spain a max of 50%, France goes up to 45%, Germany goes up to 45% all very much in line with us - then you look at the Scandinavian countries and they go up to a max of circa 60%

 

As mentioned before we pay 6 days of government collected taxation to be in the largest tariff free trading bloc in the world - 6 days.

 

Flip it on its head and look at it from a micro perspective, if you got an extra weeks pay each year, could you go out and buy a Porsche, buy a new house and build up a huge savings account? Because thats what the Leave campaign are claiming i.e. save the NHS with all the money 'saved' and fund x y and z. If we leave, the money saved will not touch the sides.

 

The NHS costs something like £120bn a year to run, yes we save £9bn a year in EU fees, but we then need to pay out to all the industries in the UK that receive EU subsidies which would knock this figure down to something like £5bn. Then you have the military, education, pensions all massive costs on the government, that few £bn back will not suddenly make the UK this big prosperous nation building new hospitals in every city etc.

 

So if we're not in the EU, and not paying the membership fees, and no longer have to pay benefits to EU migrants (working and none working, living here and not living here) and no longer have to house them, or provide school places, or hospital treatment, or Doctors...we won't be better off?

How does that work?

[Jetpilot]

^^ A friend of mine runs a European wide distributorship, turnover 40 million, so pretty big. By his calculations due to increased paperwork, customs declarations etc he will have to print 15000 pieces of extra paper a month and an extra 50 hours man hours a month to process it, net result for him 1.5 million in costs.

 

Its not so much about duties and vat etc

 

The reality is, it will never cost him that, he will just buy a warehouse someone in the Eu and distribute from one location outside the UK.

 

Aren't customs electronic these days?

 

http://ec.europa.eu/...on/index_en.htm

 

Not according to him if we come out.

[Floydbax]

We work in a democracy, our voice is very well heard but ultimately you have to vote as per any democratic process. We cannot be bullying the EU into our way of thinking because we contribute more. The idea that we contribute more is that our economy is healthy, benefiting from being in the EU, and helping lesser countries improve and contribute more themselves. To say our economic performance makes us 'more capable than most of making the right decisions' is just speculation with no factual backing.

 

What facts can you point me to that show standard of living in the UK is deteriorating compared to other nations? What do you mean other nations refusing to comply 'with our representation' I am not sure what you mean?

 

Our economy is doing well DESPITE being in the EU, our trade within is decreasing annually. We are not allowed to trade freely with countries outside the EU under our own terms, only under EU rules. This stifles our trade. There are certain goods and services that we trade withing the EU that actually cost us more than they would do if we were allowed to buy them from either outside the EU or without EU price fixing. The fact that we continue to thrive comparitively is a testament to the fact we have got it right economically.

I'm not talking about 'bullying' or deserving more clout because we are a net contributor but because our economic success is due to our economic models and our population following them. These other countries are indeed 'poorer' but they are so DESPITE many years of generous EU funding. It's their non-acceptance of having to change their economies that's their problem and they, as part of the 'club', form a united front against actually changing to do something about it.

When I point to our standard of living deteriorating I'm employing a bit of the same artistic license as Osbourne when he is making his apocolyptic warnings of our economy's demise. As in guessing that we would have been better off than we currently are in my scenario and deducting the difference. Of course there's nobody that can tell the future, it's up to having faith. I have faith in the UK and her population and our resilience. I'm not scared of leaving this collapsing club who refuse to modernise.

There were a few mentions recently about 'throwing the baby out with the bathwater'. I'd say that the bathwater is toxic and that baby is no longer a baby, it's a corrupt, cancer ridden old person who refuses to go and get treatment and will poison the rest of its body unless we force a cure on it or bury it. Then maybe we can start again with a new baby having learned from the mistakes of the past.

[coldel]

But we are on the winning side in 9 out of 10 votes on Euro policy? We are on the winning side almost all of the time (which puts to bed the whole 400 out of 500 lost argument often put around).

 

What makes you believe we pay such high levels of taxes? Spain a max of 50%, France goes up to 45%, Germany goes up to 45% all very much in line with us - then you look at the Scandinavian countries and they go up to a max of circa 60%

 

As mentioned before we pay 6 days of government collected taxation to be in the largest tariff free trading bloc in the world - 6 days.

 

Flip it on its head and look at it from a micro perspective, if you got an extra weeks pay each year, could you go out and buy a Porsche, buy a new house and build up a huge savings account? Because thats what the Leave campaign are claiming i.e. save the NHS with all the money 'saved' and fund x y and z. If we leave, the money saved will not touch the sides.

 

The NHS costs something like £120bn a year to run, yes we save £9bn a year in EU fees, but we then need to pay out to all the industries in the UK that receive EU subsidies which would knock this figure down to something like £5bn. Then you have the military, education, pensions all massive costs on the government, that few £bn back will not suddenly make the UK this big prosperous nation building new hospitals in every city etc.

 

So if we're not in the EU, and not paying the membership fees, and no longer have to pay benefits to EU migrants (working and none working, living here and not living here) and no longer have to house them, or provide school places, or hospital treatment, or Doctors...we won't be better off?

How does that work?

 

Because the cost is tiny. Read the tabloids they make it out to sound like its a huge drain on the country and its not. Again numbers from memory but something like £50bn annually goes on benefits of which something like 5-8% are on people not native to the UK. Thats on people currently here, which of course you would have to keep supporting even in a Brexit.

 

As for those working, it is proven that migrants who are in employment contribute more than they take, so net positive.

[coldel]

We work in a democracy, our voice is very well heard but ultimately you have to vote as per any democratic process. We cannot be bullying the EU into our way of thinking because we contribute more. The idea that we contribute more is that our economy is healthy, benefiting from being in the EU, and helping lesser countries improve and contribute more themselves. To say our economic performance makes us 'more capable than most of making the right decisions' is just speculation with no factual backing.

 

What facts can you point me to that show standard of living in the UK is deteriorating compared to other nations? What do you mean other nations refusing to comply 'with our representation' I am not sure what you mean?

 

Our economy is doing well DESPITE being in the EU, our trade within is decreasing annually. We are not allowed to trade freely with countries outside the EU under our own terms, only under EU rules. This stifles our trade. There are certain goods and services that we trade withing the EU that actually cost us more than they would do if we were allowed to buy them from either outside the EU or without EU price fixing. The fact that we continue to thrive comparitively is a testament to the fact we have got it right economically.

I'm not talking about 'bullying' or deserving more clout because we are a net contributor but because our economic success is due to our economic models and our population following them. These other countries are indeed 'poorer' but they are so DESPITE many years of generous EU funding. It's their non-acceptance of having to change their economies that's their problem and they, as part of the 'club', form a united front against actually changing to do something about it.

When I point to our standard of living deteriorating I'm employing a bit of the same artistic license as Osbourne when he is making his apocolyptic warnings of our economy's demise. As in guessing that we would have been better off than we currently are in my scenario and deducting the difference. Of course there's nobody that can tell the future, it's up to having faith. I have faith in the UK and her population and our resilience. I'm not scared of leaving this collapsing club who refuse to modernise.

There were a few mentions recently about 'throwing the baby out with the bathwater'. I'd say that the bathwater is toxic and that baby is no longer a baby, it's a corrupt, cancer ridden old person who refuses to go and get treatment and will poison the rest of its body unless we force a cure on it or bury it. Then maybe we can start again with a new baby having learned from the mistakes of the past.

 

Without wanting to sound personal, and its not meant to, but I think all the above has artistic licence. Can you prove we are succeeding despite being in the EU? Where are the facts that show we would get better deals with other countries if we were outside the EU?

 

I cannot accept that other countries fail simply because of poor economic decisions. Some are just subject to economic winds and tides. Spain relies heavily on tourism and in a recession people do not travel abroad, they take a double whammy on that front. I agree that countries like Greece could work harder at revising their pension rules for instance to reduce public spending, but to apply this broad brush to all European economies not as big as ours is just not correct.

 

I have no doubt the UK population are a tough lot and plenty of talent at its disposal, but thats not really the issue at hand, its how the trade deals are worked, the time frames and cost of implementation and how much of an economic shock the country can absorb in the coming years if we exit. Its very likely we will drop into recession as our GDP is hit during this time of transition, I really hope if that unfortunate situation occurs and I really hope it doesn't, then I don't want to hear those who voted out blaming the government or whoever.

[Juggalo]

But we are on the winning side in 9 out of 10 votes on Euro policy? We are on the winning side almost all of the time (which puts to bed the whole 400 out of 500 lost argument often put around).

 

What makes you believe we pay such high levels of taxes? Spain a max of 50%, France goes up to 45%, Germany goes up to 45% all very much in line with us - then you look at the Scandinavian countries and they go up to a max of circa 60%

 

As mentioned before we pay 6 days of government collected taxation to be in the largest tariff free trading bloc in the world - 6 days.

 

Flip it on its head and look at it from a micro perspective, if you got an extra weeks pay each year, could you go out and buy a Porsche, buy a new house and build up a huge savings account? Because thats what the Leave campaign are claiming i.e. save the NHS with all the money 'saved' and fund x y and z. If we leave, the money saved will not touch the sides.

 

The NHS costs something like £120bn a year to run, yes we save £9bn a year in EU fees, but we then need to pay out to all the industries in the UK that receive EU subsidies which would knock this figure down to something like £5bn. Then you have the military, education, pensions all massive costs on the government, that few £bn back will not suddenly make the UK this big prosperous nation building new hospitals in every city etc.

 

So if we're not in the EU, and not paying the membership fees, and no longer have to pay benefits to EU migrants (working and none working, living here and not living here) and no longer have to house them, or provide school places, or hospital treatment, or Doctors...we won't be better off?

How does that work?

 

Because the cost is tiny. Read the tabloids they make it out to sound like its a huge drain on the country and its not. Again numbers from memory but something like £50bn annually goes on benefits of which something like 5-8% are on people not native to the UK. Thats on people currently here, which of course you would have to keep supporting even in a Brexit.

 

As for those working, it is proven that migrants who are in employment contribute more than they take, so net positive.

 

So 8% is £4 Billion. Plus the £8.5 BillionPY in net EU contributions = £12.5 Billion / 26,473,000 housholds = £472 PY.

So I have to pay £500 per year for the privilege of losing my democracy, losing my free speech, eroding my culture via having shedloads of immigration, and paying for some foreigners kids who live in Romania?

 

If "Tiny" is your argument, I'm not convinced. No wonder the Leave vote is winning.

Edited June 14, 2016 by Juggalo

[Floydbax]

It's not a personal attack, we are all entitled to our own views, that's the beauty of living in a democracy. Healthy debate is a good thing, especially over such an important issue and we are all being well behaved here, pretty much.

 

its how the trade deals are worked, the time frames and cost of implementation and how much of an economic shock the country can absorb in the coming years if we exit. Its very likely we will drop into recession as our GDP is hit during this time of transition, I really hope if that unfortunate situation occurs and I really hope it doesn't, then I don't want to hear those who voted out blaming the government or whoever.

I think I posted a long and boring video earlier from Professor Minford who explains to PM's questions about how trade deals are done - or not as the case may be. This interview has been brushed under the carpet by the 'IN' campaign MP's. -

There's already in place a system by which a member of the EU will leave. I think there's been mention of it ^ up there somewhere. Where it takes over 2 years to unravel some of the integrations. There's some scare stories going around about us abandoning everything that was good about being in the club. That's ridiculous, things that work will be negotiated. If they don't work then they obviously need renegotiation. It's patently apparent that the EU will never negotiate these things the way things are. The Union is failing. It needs us to start this process of dismantling the aspects that are broken. I can't prove we are successful 'despite' the EU, but we are when almost all other members are not, I'd say that the facts speak for themselves, we are doing something right the others are not.

This depression that Osbourne and others are predicting is based on economic forecasting, which is always, always wrong. Proven at every budget when the forecasts are always changed. His depression is not as such a negative downturn in the economic state of the country (or the collapse of our economy), but rather based on a forecast of less future growth based on the current forecast, compared to several models. These other models are also completely made up and in the worst cases based on the worst possible scenario. Little wonder they point to these results! Similarly their predictions regarding the crashing of the housing market, wages, funding for the public sector et al. They are completely made up, based upon predictions and predictive methods that are notoriously always wrong.

[Randy_Baton]

Where are you getting the 8.5 billion in Net EU contributions? its around £100m. Even the leave campaign are only quoting £350 million. The EU then rebates £250 million back to the UK.

Edited June 14, 2016 by Randy_Baton

[Randy_Baton]

My main feeling on the EU decision is that I know very little but the list of notable people backing remain is pretty impressive and varied. Would all these people be wrong. Its the literally all the people we have choose to make these decsion for us. I don't even think there should a referendum on something so big.

• The Prime Minister of the UK
  
• The leader of the Labour Party
  
• The Leader of the Liberal Democrats
  
• The Leader of the Green Party
  
• The Leader of the Scottish National Party
  
• The leader of Plaid Cymru
  
• Leader of Sinn Fein
  
• Martin Lewis, that money saving dude off the telly
  
• The Secretary General of the TUC
  
• Unison
  
• National Union of Students
  
• National Union of Farmers
  
• Stephen Hawking
  
• Chief Executive of the NHS
  
• All living former Prime Ministers of the UK (from both parties)
  
• Stephen Hawking
  
• Chief Executive of the NHS
  
• Director of Europol
  
• Secretary General of Nato
  
• Church of England
  
• Church of Scotland
  
• Church of Wales
  
• Friends of the Earth
  
• Greenpeace
  
• Director General of the World Trade Organisation
  
• WWF
  
• World Bank
  
• OECD
  
• Governor of the Bank of England
  
• International Monetary Fund
  
• Institute for Fiscal Studies
  
• Confederation of British Industry
  
• Leaders/heads of state of every single other member of the EU
  
• President of the United States of America
  
• President of China
  

Also a brexit vote would probably lead to a Conservative leadership change - A Boris Gove leadership sounds almost as bad as Trump.

[coldel]

But we are on the winning side in 9 out of 10 votes on Euro policy? We are on the winning side almost all of the time (which puts to bed the whole 400 out of 500 lost argument often put around).

 

What makes you believe we pay such high levels of taxes? Spain a max of 50%, France goes up to 45%, Germany goes up to 45% all very much in line with us - then you look at the Scandinavian countries and they go up to a max of circa 60%

 

As mentioned before we pay 6 days of government collected taxation to be in the largest tariff free trading bloc in the world - 6 days.

 

Flip it on its head and look at it from a micro perspective, if you got an extra weeks pay each year, could you go out and buy a Porsche, buy a new house and build up a huge savings account? Because thats what the Leave campaign are claiming i.e. save the NHS with all the money 'saved' and fund x y and z. If we leave, the money saved will not touch the sides.

 

The NHS costs something like £120bn a year to run, yes we save £9bn a year in EU fees, but we then need to pay out to all the industries in the UK that receive EU subsidies which would knock this figure down to something like £5bn. Then you have the military, education, pensions all massive costs on the government, that few £bn back will not suddenly make the UK this big prosperous nation building new hospitals in every city etc.

 

So if we're not in the EU, and not paying the membership fees, and no longer have to pay benefits to EU migrants (working and none working, living here and not living here) and no longer have to house them, or provide school places, or hospital treatment, or Doctors...we won't be better off?

How does that work?

 

Because the cost is tiny. Read the tabloids they make it out to sound like its a huge drain on the country and its not. Again numbers from memory but something like £50bn annually goes on benefits of which something like 5-8% are on people not native to the UK. Thats on people currently here, which of course you would have to keep supporting even in a Brexit.

 

As for those working, it is proven that migrants who are in employment contribute more than they take, so net positive.

 

So 8% is £4 Billion. Plus the £8.5 BillionPY in net EU contributions = £12.5 Billion / 26,473,000 housholds = £472 PY.

So I have to pay £500 per year for the privilege of losing my democracy, losing my free speech, eroding my culture via having shedloads of immigration, and paying for some foreigners kids who live in Romania?

 

If "Tiny" is your argument, I'm not convinced. No wonder the Leave vote is winning.

 

Because you will still have to pay those here.

 

£8bn is not a large amount of money when talking about running the country though. It costs hundreds of billions, and you are willing to risk the financial security of every person in this country for the next 2+ years because of this relatively small cost?

 

As for the second part, that really does sound like the Sun speaking...how have you lost free speech (even though you don't have that in or out), how have you lost democracy?

[Juggalo]

But we are on the winning side in 9 out of 10 votes on Euro policy? We are on the winning side almost all of the time (which puts to bed the whole 400 out of 500 lost argument often put around).

 

What makes you believe we pay such high levels of taxes? Spain a max of 50%, France goes up to 45%, Germany goes up to 45% all very much in line with us - then you look at the Scandinavian countries and they go up to a max of circa 60%

 

As mentioned before we pay 6 days of government collected taxation to be in the largest tariff free trading bloc in the world - 6 days.

 

Flip it on its head and look at it from a micro perspective, if you got an extra weeks pay each year, could you go out and buy a Porsche, buy a new house and build up a huge savings account? Because thats what the Leave campaign are claiming i.e. save the NHS with all the money 'saved' and fund x y and z. If we leave, the money saved will not touch the sides.

 

The NHS costs something like £120bn a year to run, yes we save £9bn a year in EU fees, but we then need to pay out to all the industries in the UK that receive EU subsidies which would knock this figure down to something like £5bn. Then you have the military, education, pensions all massive costs on the government, that few £bn back will not suddenly make the UK this big prosperous nation building new hospitals in every city etc.

 

So if we're not in the EU, and not paying the membership fees, and no longer have to pay benefits to EU migrants (working and none working, living here and not living here) and no longer have to house them, or provide school places, or hospital treatment, or Doctors...we won't be better off?

How does that work?

 

Because the cost is tiny. Read the tabloids they make it out to sound like its a huge drain on the country and its not. Again numbers from memory but something like £50bn annually goes on benefits of which something like 5-8% are on people not native to the UK. Thats on people currently here, which of course you would have to keep supporting even in a Brexit.

 

As for those working, it is proven that migrants who are in employment contribute more than they take, so net positive.

 

So 8% is £4 Billion. Plus the £8.5 BillionPY in net EU contributions = £12.5 Billion / 26,473,000 housholds = £472 PY.

So I have to pay £500 per year for the privilege of losing my democracy, losing my free speech, eroding my culture via having shedloads of immigration, and paying for some foreigners kids who live in Romania?

 

If "Tiny" is your argument, I'm not convinced. No wonder the Leave vote is winning.

 

Because you will still have to pay those here.

 

£8bn is not a large amount of money when talking about running the country though. It costs hundreds of billions, and you are willing to risk the financial security of every person in this country for the next 2+ years because of this relatively small cost?

 

As for the second part, that really does sound like the Sun speaking...how have you lost free speech (even though you don't have that in or out), how have you lost democracy?

 

 

 

I don't read newspapers, and I certainly don't read tabloids. Erosion of democracy is the ability of the UK to self determine its own future, which it has lost in a major way.

Laws imposed on us by unelected officials in a foreign land. Foreign courts overruling our courts and laws - This ultimately means that it doesn't really matter who we vote for every four years, as whoever wins, has a minority voice within an organisation I didn't consent to joining. And do not wheel out the EEC. The EEC and EU are apples and oranges.

Remove the EU, and then the government we elect is wholly responsible for our laws, borders, sovereignty. Elected by the people, for the people.

 

Willing to risk the financial security of every person in the country? Are you serious? The country is in a financial mess. What Manufacturing we have slid back into recession last week. Since being in the EU our manufacturing base has almost gone. The country is a mess, and has been for 8 years.

Where is this golden economic time you're implying will bloom if we stay in the EU?

 

You're at a severe disadvantage. We're in the EU, we know what the future holds. Nothing of benefit. It benefits Germany as it keeps them on top and us under them. Hell, we can't even make a trade deal with the USA to help grow the country!

Edited June 14, 2016 by Juggalo

[Juggalo]

Where are you getting the 8.5 billion in Net EU contributions? its around £100m. Even the leave campaign are only quoting £350 million. The EU then rebates £250 million back to the UK.

 

Math

[Randy_Baton]

Absolutey outstanding argument

 

£30Bn whipped off the FTSE over the last few days. Can you imagine how much it will fall if it actually goes through,

Edited June 14, 2016 by Randy_Baton

[Adrian@TORQEN]

"So the anti-Europe cave is claustrophobic. It is also being refilled (for we have been here before) with futile arrogance, making it obligatory not merely to criticise Brussels but abominate the Germans, laugh about the French, find nothing good to say about another European country, lest this betray our beleaguered sense of Britishness. A smart-ass headline writer in the Sun can get attention when the BBC finds an item of punning xenophobia so funny as to be worth a mention in the news.

 

At the heart of this is an impenetrable contradiction in the anti-Europe British mind. It cannot decide between terror and disdain. Britain is apparently so great, as well as so different, a place that she can afford to do without her continental hinterland. But she is so puny, so endangered, so destined to lose every argument with the continentals, that she must fear for her identity if and when she makes the final commitment to belong among them. Studying the movements of sceptic thought, I see in their inability to provide a clear answer on this fundamental point a mirror of the vacillations, pro- and anti-Europe, that mark the personal histories of so many of the characters in the story. Either way, the conclusion points in the anti-Europe direction."

 

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/14/hugo-young-euro-referendum-archive-piece-1999

[Adrian@TORQEN]

Absolutey outstanding argument

 

£30Bn whipped off the FTSE over the last few days. Can you imagine how much it will fall if it actually goes through,

 

Just had this from CityIndex:

 

======

 

Ahead of an expected increase in market volatility around the UK’s EU referendum on the 23rd of June, 2016 we’re writing to let you know about changes that will affect your account.

 

Changes to our margins

Our margin requirements will change temporarily to reflect the increased market uncertainty around the referendum. From the 19th June, 2016 these changes will include:

GBP related currency pairs and UK Indices will move to 3% base margin as a minimum

EUR related currency pairs and European and US Indices will move to 1% base rate margin as a minimum

UK 100 Equities will move to 8% base rate margin.

 

=======

 

If Britain leaves EU is going to be a disaster on the stock exchange, FTSE companies will have serious value wiped off the market, GBP vs any currency will simply dive, I'm predicting 1GBP = 1 USD... Lots of prices will go up for anything imported.

[Bockaaarck]

From an economic perspective it's interesting in terms of the EU in / out vote. The BREXIT campaign and those leaning to support it are keen to point it the following. That the British economy is strong, among the strongest in Europe.

 

We are leading the way out of the economic turmoil. Our trade position is solid, we have a good footing to set ourselves up, outside the direct influence of the EU. Strong enough to make our own way. The stats, the reports, the data shows this clearly. We don't need the EU!

 

What interest me particularly is that a lot of this data, this vision of economic strength, growth, prosperity comes from organisations like the CBI. Who are keen to point out the benefits of being part of the EU.

 

More importantly, a lot of this data, this information, this rosey picture. Comes from government department reports, from the department of trade and industry for example. Departments for a government who are telling us how strong our economy is, how well we are doing, we are leading the way.

 

 

So I would ask the question of the BREXIT camp. How is it that you trust the governments figures in economic growth, strength and sustainable economic power. Which reflects the current status of our economy now. Supporting the basis for your "we'll do fine if we leave the EU, look how well we are doing...".

 

Yet you don't trust the same government when they report the significant negative economic impact, which will occur. Should we leave the EU and its economic agreements, treaties and arrangements? How does that work, it's a contradiction surely?

 

Also, if you accept the government stats and reports on economic growth, strength etc as an argument for leaving. Yet you don't trust the reports / stars for the negative impact of we leave. How can you really trust the stats relating to the strength of our economy? They have to be wrong, surely?

 

And if the positive economic data is wrong, then we really aren't that strong economically as a nation at all are we? Then economic strength is not a reason for leaving the EU. Which begs the question, if economically we are so week. Would we maybe not benefit from the support of the EU, rather than being cast adrift from it?

[Bockaaarck]

Absolutey outstanding argument

 

£30Bn whipped off the FTSE over the last few days. Can you imagine how much it will fall if it actually goes through,

 

Just had this from CityIndex:

 

======

 

Ahead of an expected increase in market volatility around the UK’s EU referendum on the 23rd of June, 2016 we’re writing to let you know about changes that will affect your account.

 

Changes to our margins

Our margin requirements will change temporarily to reflect the increased market uncertainty around the referendum. From the 19th June, 2016 these changes will include:

GBP related currency pairs and UK Indices will move to 3% base margin as a minimum

EUR related currency pairs and European and US Indices will move to 1% base rate margin as a minimum

UK 100 Equities will move to 8% base rate margin.

 

=======

 

If Britain leaves EU is going to be a disaster on the stock exchange, FTSE companies will have serious value wiped off the market, GBP vs any currency will simply dive, I'm predicting 1GBP = 1 USD... Lots of prices will go up for anything imported.

 

100% agree, the last ten years has been plate spinning from a money, economy, banking, debt perspective. Our economy, the world economy is collapsing. Look at the increase in personal debt, not just here but globally. The Chinese dragon is faltering, puffing whisp's of smoke rather than fire. The Baltic Dry index has been catastrophically low, as have interest rates for record periods. Somethings got to give.

 

Whatever the vote in or out, the times they are a changing. The EU vote will simply be an excuse to cover the failure of governments and regulators to act when they should have done. Back in 2000-2003. Putting Glass Steagal back in place and reigning in a financially speculative debt binge.

Edited June 14, 2016 by Bockaaarck

[Adrian@TORQEN]

 

Brexit is a bloody stupid idea, if you’re not going to read past this first introductory paragraph, that pretty much sums up my views on the subject. What’s worrying is that like most stupid ideas (Donald Trump, war, Nickelback), there seem to be lots of people willing to get behind it. The more polling data I look at, the more terrified I become that Britain might actually be about to do the dumbest thing we possibly could as a country. Seeing the way the debate is heading I figured, ‘why don’t I chime in with my opinions on the subject?’ Just Like Nigel Farage, I have no qualifications in Politics, Economics or Sociology; if he can act as a geyser of oral excrement, why not I?

 

I should probably warn you that I’d describe my writing style as ‘man drunk in Weatherspoons at 11am telling you why he should be the England manager’, which is ironic because Tim Martin the founder and chairman of Spoons is actually a strong advocate of Brexit. Between me and you, I have a suspicion that he just wants the whole of Britain to be as depressing as The Plough and Harrow in Ravenscourt Park, god that’s a crap pub, but anyway I digress.

 

The economy

At times it seems that the entire economic discourse between Leave and Remain, has degenerated in to a tiring game of whiffle-waffle tennis. I can understand why people find it difficult to get an informed opinion when almost all the debate ends up in both sides shouting liar liar pants on fire (not just a popular children’s rhyme, but also a direct quote from Boris Johnson’s last mayoral election campaign, strong choice of leader there Brexiteers*). This isn’t helped by the fact that in reality most economic ‘experts’ are just slightly better paid and dressed village shamans, trying to predict the future of the economy through goat entrails. Let us not forget that almost no one (Vince Cable aside, who by the way is firmly in the Remain camp), saw the 2008 crash coming. If something as mind bogglingly complicated at the economy was as easy to predict as both sides pretend, then those dour faced men in suits would be too busy spending the trillions they’d made on the stock market fighting in their robot unicorn league, to have time to do interviews for the BBC or This Morning.

*What’s the Remain version of Brexiteer? Is it Bremainateer? Bremusketeer?

 

So how do we find a way of gauging the actual economic impact Brexit would have?

Well for all of its many faults, one thing that you can’t argue with is the global market. The global market doesn’t give a toss about principles, patriotism or refugees, it is by its very nature a capitalist entity; it is only interested in making money. So what does the global market think of the idea of Brexit? It thinks it will be an utter self-induced cluster ****. Straight after Boris Johnson signed up to the Leave campaign, the pound slumped to its lowest point since March 2009. Can we put that in perspective please? Apart from the immediate aftermath of the worst economic crash since the great depression, the pound hasn’t done worse than it is currently doing because we are talking about leaving the EU. Can you even begin to contemplate the nose dive that the pound’s value would embark upon if we actually did it?

 

The most troubling thing is that this actually has the potential to be worse than 2008 because it wouldn’t be a global crash, it would be specifically targeted against Britain. The 2008 crash was brutal but it hit everyone pretty much equally, we all had to rebuild our economies from a similar base of downturn. In comparison this would be a softcore porn kind of crash; one where we are only screwing ourselves. At a time when all of the world’s major economies are starting to grow and flourish again, we could easily be going through a second recession.

 

Now I know that arguments similar to this have been presented to the Leave campaign and they’ve responded by calling it alarmist nonsense. A point of linguistic semantics that I would like to indulge in: calling something alarming when it is so, doesn’t prove that thing to be un-alarming and thus win you an argument. Johnson has shown through his impressively inappropriate H-bomb dropping, that he loves a good WW2 metaphor, so here’s one for his Brexit campaign: If you are in the trenches and someone screams ‘incoming!’ The correct response is to take heed and duck. If you stand up and go ‘I declare that alarmist nonsense’, you are, quite rightly through Darwinism, going to get your bloody head blown off.

 

Anyway, after the declaration of alarmist nonsense has been made, the average Brexit supporter tends to counter by accepting that there will be a negative short term effect on the economy, but arguing we’ll quickly strike new lucrative trade deals with the EU and the rest of the world, and thus reap the rewards long term (at roughly a dozen points during this argument they’ll probably quote the fact that Britain’s economy is the 5th largest in the world). There are 3 main assumptions about Britain this argument relies upon that just aren’t real:

 

Speed:

The notion that we will quickly strike up trade deals as easily as snapping our fingers, is so naive, and based on so many romantic fantasies about Western governments, that it is genuinely pathetic. The idea that Britain and the EU are suddenly these powerhouses of bureaucratic efficiency that can thrash out a trade deal in a couple of weeks is laughable. Britain in particular loves waffle, we love legislation and it will take years and years to sort out anything because, well, Britain. We’re good at 5 things in Britain

 

Queuing

Shouting get your rat out whilst on holiday

Unnecessary bureaucracy

Stereotypes

Ironic lists

 

The worst thing is that even if we did suddenly become a nation of cut-throat trade deal making aficionados, it wouldn’t matter; the process of leaving the EU takes 2 years. That’s two years that the pound will continue to be violated on the global market, two years where no business is willing to invest or make a deal because they want to wait and see how the Brexit circus turns out. I will take any odds, that if we do choose to leave, we will not be the 5th largest economy in the world by the time we actually make it out of the EU, 2 years down the line.

 

Trade deals:

The idea that the EU will still trade with us because they can’t afford not to is just deluded. Firstly can we just take a moment to think about how utterly grim that negotiation table is going to be. Politicians are as petty as normal people (the French especially so), and will be peeved that we’ve opted out of their secret handshake club. If you **** in the corner of someone’s dining room and then sit down to have supper, the conversation is going to be understandably tense (believe me).

The real problem is that even if we accept the Brexit campaign’s assertion that the remaining EU countries will be entirely motivated by economic greed, that will actually work against us because the playing field isn’t as narrow in scale as a simple question of trade between the EU and Britain. If we leave the EU and then manage to negotiate a better deal for ourselves out of it than we had in it, the EU will unravel. No country is going to stay in the organisation if we have just proven you can sack the whole thing off without anything but positive consequences. The EU member states (France and Germany especially) know this, and will be out to punish us, they will want nothing more than to watch us have 3 years where we trash our economy, only to come crawling back with our tail between our legs. They will want us to serve as an example of the damaging stupidity leaving the EU entails, so they can quell the Right Wing uprising that is currently gaining traction across all of Europe.

The EU will accept the short term negative impact of decreased trade with Britain in exchange for the long term benefit of continuing to exist as the EU. The idea that they will trade with us because they can’t afford not to is actually the wrong way round; they will refuse to trade with us because they know what the ramifications will be if they do: no more EU.

 

And by the way the argument that we will just replace our trade from the EU with trade from the US, China and other markets is again built upon a number of fundamentally flawed assumptions. Despite what the Brexit campaign says, being in the EU doesn’t block trade deals with non-EU members. We have spent lots of time and money trying to secure trade deals with every country across the world that would make us money, indeed we have had many successes in this area. Being outside the EU doesn’t mean that suddenly a hundred trade deals will pop up that we otherwise couldn’t have taken. We know the major competitors of the global market and if we haven’t succeeded in securing trade deals with them in the EU, we will not have much more success out of it. Indeed the trade deals we enter in to straight out of the EU will not be negotiated from a position of strength. Non-EU countries will know that we are desperate for trade, and will have far more power in determining the details of any deal struck than we do.

 

Unity:

Again the entire argument for this recovery presupposes a level of unity in Britain that just isn’t going to be there if we choose to leave. If you actually believe that David Cameron won’t resign as Prime Minister if he loses this referendum, then I am honestly impressed you’ve made it this far down my article, why don’t you close the shiny magic picture box and go back to colouring in. Cameron had drafted a resignation speech to deliver in the event of Scotland leaving the UK, something that, if he was really being honest with himself, he probably didn’t give a @*!# about.

 

There is no way Cameron will stick around if we opt out of the EU. You know who will replace him? That’s right, Boris Johnson. Boris. ****ing. Johnson. Boris Johnson doesn’t have a plan for Britain outside of the EU, I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if he knew that Brexit will harm us and just doesn’t care. Johnson has managed to cultivate a smoke screen of harmless buffoonery, hiding the reality that he is in fact a thoroughly harmful and nasty career politician who has voted with the Tory Right Wing for most of his career. Johnson doesn’t give a damn if he ends up as the leader of a pile of rubble, as long as he is the leader. Brexit won’t affect Johnson’s livelihood, he is rich now and he’ll be rich regardless of how our economy does, he is just a power hungry tory riding a wave of xenophobic populism for his own ends that has been brought on by the currently frightening socio-political climate of Europe.

 

Now I want you to just take a moment to envisage the fractured political landscape that Boris Johnson will be taking the helm of. The Conservatives have constantly mocked Labour’s party division, but that will be nothing compared to their implosion after Brexit. The party will finally have to address the two different strands of itself: the shiny faced new era Camronites vs the nastier, more racist, UKIP leaning underbelly that has grown more and more venomous in recent years, due to its diminishing say in how the government tells poor people it’s their own fault for being poor. Regardless of your political preference, having the country’s government fractured and divided is only ever going to be a bad thing, especially when that government is going to be responsible for negotiating the most important political, economic and sociological change since WW2.

 

The rest of the political landscape will not be looking much better either. Labour will still be going through the same internal struggle with itself, as the old school Blairites of New Labour continue to decry Corbyn and his merry band of ‘lefty loonies’ (which would be a great name for an alt rock band, #justsaying). Things actually get grimmer as we go up north (rule of life) to Scotland, with the SNP licking its lips at the prospect of Brexit. Here’s another bet I’ll take at any odds: if we do leave the EU, there will be another referendum in Scotland and this time they’ll vote to leave by a landslide. There’s a reason the SNP haven’t exactly waded in guns blazing to the debate. There’s a reason that current and past party members keep ‘leaking’ the idea that it would be in Scotland’s best interests for Britain to leave the EU, even though Scotland wants to be in the EU: a lot of the SNP want Scotland independent and we are about to hand it to them on a silver platter.

 

At a time when Britain needs to pull together and be at its most unified, we will instead be a state of warring factions splintering off from one another. With Scotland breaking away from Britain and both of our major parties divided in two, we’re going to find it hard to agree on the colour of @*!#, let alone the minutia of political and economic reform.

 

Finally, the introduction of Johnson as head of government, will exacerbate the problems I mentioned in the previous sections of Time and Trade deals. We will find ourselves in a position where both of the sides at the negotiation table can’t afford to blink, and that is only ever going to result in the discussions getting dragged out ad infinitum. In the same way that the EU can’t lose this game of chicken with Britain, Johnson can’t lose face in the deal he strikes with the EU. Having championed the Leave cause, he must come back with an agreement from the EU that is significantly better than what we have already, otherwise it will be career suicide. With the two parties at the negotiation table starting from such polar positions, and with neither being able to lose, there is no hope of a deal being struck quickly and very little chance of one being struck at all.

 

Immigration

After the wide spread criticism of their economic arguments, the ‘immigration problem’ has come to form the major foundation of much of the Leave campaign’s rhetoric. Let’s start with the Syrian crisis, why is it that we cared enough about these people to try and make them in to a democracy — via our usual route of teaming up with America and bombing the right to vote in to them — but not enough to try and help them when the assorted turds hit the fan? We were an instrumental part of turning Syria in to the war torn hell hole it is today with a short term and vague bombing program, and we should be instrumental in helping the people suffering for our cowboy approach to diplomacy.

Even if you accept the idea that these people will make things harder for us economically, that we might have to pay more tax to support them, it is morally abhorrent to turn them away. Be clear about the statement you’re making about yourself and the statement we’re making as a country if we entirely shut down the borders to the Syrian refugees. What you’re saying is, ‘I’d rather allow people to die, people my country is responsible for putting in their current predicament, than pay more tax or spend more resources’. I pray that I’m not wrong, but I hope most people aren’t that callous, we can’t be that much a nation of cold hearted bastards can we?

 

Obviously we can’t accept every refugee out there but that’s one of the main reasons the EU was set up: a network of aid across nations to deal with the huge amount of refugees post WW2 in a humanitarian way. The Brexit campaign love playing the patriotism card, but you would be turning your back on 70+ years of British values by voting to leave the EU, it was one of the crowning achievements of our grandparents generation and should be fought for vehemently. The reason Europe is such an amazing success story is because of the humanitarian and inclusionist philosophies we espoused to rebuild it after WW2. That’s what defeats extremism: economic stability, inclusionist principles and education. That might sound like trite bollocks, but let me put it to you this way: is the death cult of ISIS anymore mental than the death cult of the Nazis? No. Could you imagine France and Britain going to war with Germany this year? No. Because over 70 years of good work by the EU has made that unthinkable. Isolationism has never worked historically and it won’t work for us now.

 

By the way you might be thinking ‘oh but he’s left out Turkey, they’re about to join the EU and they’re a melting pot of extremist Muslim ideologies who will sweep through our country in a flood of immigration’. I honestly refuse to even engage with the stupidity of the Turkey fear mongering. It’s hugely debatable whether they will gain EU membership, only 14% of the country own a passport and this ‘flood’ of immigration will be a trickle that we shouldn’t have ever worried about, just like Poland and every other 2nd world country that’s ever joined the EU and been front page news for the right wing media core owned by Rupert ‘I may well be the anti-christ’ Murdoch. Stop letting the Leave campaign lie to you, you’re better than that.

 

Security

So this is heavily tied up with immigration and is what a lot of people claim to be the reason they want to tighten the borders without it meaning they’re racist. It’s something the Brexit campaign loves using to stoke fear and xenophobia with (ironic that they call the Remain campaign ‘project fear’, when much of their argument boils down to ahhhhh! Someone with different skin, SHUN HIM!).

I can understand why people are easily misled with respect to this issue, the world is a ****ing terrifying place right now. Would you like to know something that sucks? Terrorists are terrifying because they are almost impossible to stop. Yes we can do better than we have done so far, and no one is saying that we should be allowing immigration without stringent and intense screening, but there really is only so much you can do to stop people with a mantra of ‘We love death as you love life’. Do you know how many of the deluded extremists involved in the Belgian and Paris attacks (including Charlie Hebdo) had come to the countries involved disguised as immigrants? 2 out of 15. The rest, including the ring leaders and organisers, were all French or Belgium nationals.

Obviously 2 out of 15 is enough to be a security concern and not something that should be taken lightly, but you’d be deluded to think that these attacks wouldn’t have occurred if Paris and Belgium had an absolute lock down on their respective borders. Short of turning your country in to a Big Brother-esque police state, where not only are you not allowing any outsiders in, but also constantly policing your own citizens every thought, you can’t make it impossible for terrorism to occur.

There needs to be huge amounts of time and effort put in to making it as safe as possible to allow immigration in to our country, with background checks and interviews. It will be difficult and a serious headache, but the idea that the easier alternative is to leave the EU is just idiotic. Do you know what the vast 99.999999% of Syrian (and indeed all) refugees want to do? Get a job in a non war torn country, work their assess off and pay taxes. Pretty much every independent study done about immigration shows it as a positive effect economically, with immigrants paying more in than they take, especially in an ageing top heavy social demographic like ours. This idea of the lazy, benefit claiming immigrant is a xenophobic fantasy.

 

https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/news-articles/1114/051114-economic-impact-EU-immigration

https://www.oecd.org/migration/OECD%20Migration%20Policy%20Debates%20Numero%202.pdf

 

So please for everyone’s sake, stop listening to the fear mongering of the right wing, it’s utter crap.

 

The world is a scary place and they’re trying to manipulate that fear for their own political agenda, they want to turn your fear of terrorism in to a wrongly placed fear of everyone not from Britain. Stopping immigration will not help our security or economy, the argument they’re making is based on people’s ignorance. The economy and the country don’t function in the simplistic way the Leave campaign is presenting it to.

 

Sovereignty

This is by far the closest the Leave argument comes to having a point, but it is still ultimately twisted nonsense. The argument that we should leave the EU if it was constantly affecting our laws in a bad way is sound, but the EU doesn’t, so it isn’t. When you ask the Leave campaign to point to an area where they’ve had the evil EU intervene to the detriment of Britain, it gets awfully quiet. The EU bill of human rights for example (I know technically this is a mutually exclusive body to the EU, but it has been brought up a lot by both sides and I think that it will be next on the kill list, post-Brexit) is an almost incontestably good thing, something that we actually wrote by the way. I mean seriously how is Nigel Farage — and I would add that Theresa May and Cameron also need to **** right off in regard to this subject — allowed to talk about the ECHR being oppressive legislation and not get booed off stage? Have you actually read that document? It guarantees privacy, a right to a fair trial, freedom from torture, freedom of religion, freedom from discrimination etc. etc. One of the main things we’ve gotten antsy with the EU about, has been when its intervention has stopped us from deporting someone from our country as quickly as we want to. Are we really going to leave the EU so that we can violate more human rights?

 

That last sentence, whilst flippant, is actually much more of a concern than you might realise due to the likely post-Brexit political climate. Choosing Brexit will result in a huge shift to the right in our country’s politics. It would mean that UKIP has suddenly become a credible political party, and that means you could well see a coalition government between the nasty right wing core that survives a Conservative Party meltdown, and UKIP. That honestly makes me want to cry; the most right wing elements of our country (minus the BNP), joining forces, with the power to tear up all of the EU legislation on human and workers rights as well as the ECHR. The only way Brexit would become a credibly good idea, is if Britain post-EU would have better laws and a better social structure outside of it than in. That won’t be the case, things will get worse. Let’s not forget how utterly grim unrestrained Thatcherite free market capitalism is, and how little it gives a crap about the lower class. I promise you that if Boris and Gove write up a new ‘British Bill of Rights’, the first things to go will be your right to privacy and the protection on unpaid overtime and maximum working hours.

 

EU economic and political legislation are again, pretty ****ing tame, there are no sacrifice your firstborn clauses, if there was, countries wouldn’t be chomping at the bit to join the EU. The attempt to paint the EU as a corrupt den of bureaucratic thieves and rotten bankers might carry some clout, if our own country wasn’t such a more impressively corrupt den of bureaucratic thieves and rotten bankers. Does the EU favour corporations and ultimately is it money that talks loudest? Yes of course, but unfortunately that’s the way a capitalist world works. If you want to have a conversation about inherent political structure and if we should change it, then believe me I am your man for that discourse I dig that @*!# hugely, but leaving the EU won’t change anything, it will make things worse. The post-Brexit legislation we lay down will be done by a heavily right-wing leaning government, who want fewer workers rights and more freedom for corporations, because they honestly believe that helping the 1% get richer is the real aim of countries. People should be laughing in Boris Johnson and Michael Gove’s faces when they pretend the laws and legislation they will pass post-Brexit will benefit anyone but the ruling classes.

 

Allies

Now listen, I know it might seem a little bit hypocritical for me to talk about allies when Cameron and Osborne are on the Remain side, but Jesus if you’re supporting Brexit, can you please take a moment to look at who you’re standing with. Here’s a little reversal of a sentence structure that is ironically most often used by racists: I’m not saying that everyone who votes Leave is racist, but everyone who’s a racist will be voting Leave.

 

I am so sick of people pretending that the racism that keeps popping up in the Leave campaign, is the work of a few bad apples and doesn’t reflect on the movement as a whole. The movement was started by Nigel Farage. This is the man who shouted angrily at Mandelson to “stop rubbing our noses in diversityâ€. What does that mean, other than I want to have my nose rubbed in uniformity and by uniformity I mean white people? Can the media please start calling a spade a spade and a racist little @*!# a racist little @*!#. Nigel Farage and his party are a xenophobic movement of assholery and that’s who you’re lining up with if you think Brexit is a good idea. You’re saying I think that the party who employs MEP’s that refer to Africa as bongo bongo land, are the right people to get behind when it comes to our sociopolitical future.

 

Well it’s not just UKIP gunning for Brexit I hear you say, what about Boris Johnson, he’s not an elitist racist. Really? He suggested that Obama was only in support of Remain because of his dislike of Britain due to his Kenyan heritage. Are you kidding me? Yea, Obama leader of the most racially prejudice first world country, the man who gets regular death threats and insults on major American news channels because of the colour of his skin, can’t raise himself above racial grievances from the colonial era. He thought he’d just fly over to Britain for shits and giggles, because he wants us to make bad choices due to his spear waving, bone through the nose, tribal dancing heritage, bloody Kenyan savage. Oh but don’t worry, Boris Johnson can sing German so he couldn’t possibly be racist. Boris Johnson should have been disqualified from all further political discourse after that statement, but as ever he got given a free pass because he’s just such a lovable un-PC little scamp. It’s like meeting one of your friends old school mates who thinks it’s hilarious to dip his genitals in your pint when you’ve gone to the loo, and who your mate explains, ‘is just like that’. What, like an absolute prick?

Well don’t worry Brexiteers, there are more respected world leaders waiting to make cameos in the debate: Donald Trump, the man who wants to ban Muslims, build a wall to stop Mexicans and punish women for having abortions, thinks Brexit is a good idea. So does Vladimir Putin, the man who has made it illegal to be gay in public, and of course only has Britain’s best interests at heart. He couldn’t possibly be hoping to prise us away from the EU and NATO community so we’ll develop closer economic and political ties with Russia, I’m sure that’ll end well.

 

What you’re saying when you join the Brexit camp is, ‘well I think those people are wrong about their abhorrent beliefs in certain areas, but when it comes to Brexit, they’ve hit the nail on the head.’ Is it not more likely that they’re just ass holes? When I was at university I was considering joining the rugby team, I went out on a night out with the team and during the evening one of the lads went “oi look at that girlâ€, I said “yea she’s beautifulâ€, and he went “watch thisâ€, pi**ed in a cup and threw it at her. I didn’t join the rugby team because they were serial offending bell ends. That’s the team you’re on if you go Brexit, Team Racist **** Throwing.

 

So please, for the love of Jehova vote Remain. Get your mum, dad, sister, brother, cat and goldfish to vote Remain. Scream it from the rooftops, the only accurate thing Brexit has done is call the Remain campaign ‘Project Fear’, spot on, you should be ****ing terrified.

 

https://medium.com/@williamgadsbypeet/project-fear-is-a-fitting-name-you-should-be-****ing-terrified-5c93f1b5ef2f

 

 

 

[Adrian@TORQEN]

More than £30 billion has been wiped off the FTSE 100 Index as city fears grow over a potential Brexit.

 

The EU referendum takes place next Thursday, but fears of the eventual outcome is being felt globally.

 

Recent opinion polls on the referendum put the Leave campaign in the lead, while the Sun newspaper came out in favour of Brexit on Tuesday.

 

The latest plunge means more than £70 billion has been lost from the index since the start of the week.

 

http://www.itv.com/news/2016-06-14/brexit-fears-wipe-30-billion-off-the-ftse-100/

[Richf]

Now it gets nasty , do what I say or you will be punished

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36534192

[Richf]

More than £30 billion has been wiped off the FTSE 100 Index as city fears grow over a potential Brexit.

 

The EU referendum takes place next Thursday, but fears of the eventual outcome is being felt globally.

 

Recent opinion polls on the referendum put the Leave campaign in the lead, while the Sun newspaper came out in favour of Brexit on Tuesday.

 

The latest plunge means more than £70 billion has been lost from the index since the start of the week.

 

http://www.itv.com/n...f-the-ftse-100/

 

In other words back to where it was last September , the FTSE fluctuates its hardly a crash

[Ponsonby]

Nice one Adrian.

 

I really hope that your post will influence more people to vote to stay in.

 

As pointed out, the exit chief campaigner Boris will be just fine even if the country collapses under a 'leave' vote. I wonder if he would stake his fortune on everything being OK if he is so convinced?

Wonder where he has his money stashed - probably no-where near the FTSE100.

[Richf]

 

As pointed out, the exit chief campaigner Boris will be just fine even if the country collapses under a 'leave' vote. I wonder if he would stake his fortune on everything being OK if he is so convinced?

Wonder where he has his money stashed - probably no-where near the FTSE100.

 

Wheras Farage will be out of a job, i think you will find most of the Tory elite have plenty stashed away and wont be affected one way or another

[coldel]

The Leave campaign has laid out its plans on its website this morning, had a brief read through but at least they are FINALLY putting together an idea of how they want to approach this (how could anyone have voted Leave before seeing this?) - anyway in short they 'expect' everything to be concluded by the end of the current parliament in 2020.

 

http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/a_framework_for_taking_back_control_and_establishing_a_new_uk_eu_deal_after_23_june

 

So it looks like the EU budget savings of circa £8bn-£9bn are going on:

- 4% increase in spending on the NHS

- Removal of the 5% VAT charge on energy

 

That's where all the money will be going, in terms of money back in your pocket it will be on average a £70 a year reduction in your energy bills (using OFGEMs estimate on energy bills average in the UK being £1400 as a rough guideline) and some minor improvements to the NHS. They do not mention though how they will support the industries/businesses/universities that all receive around £6bn a year in EU funding which will cease should we exit which is more of a concern given that over 4000 UK businesses took funding last year which includes companies like Rolls Royce.

 

They 'seem' to be leaning towards the Canadian model in terms of the tariff free and visa based model they have set up, although I am not sure how well that will work given that geographically its a different scenario i.e. would the EU be more driven to free movement than they were with Canada, thats purely my own speculation though.

 

The concessions Canada gave for this in the limited reading I have on it are that specific industries are excluded i.e. farming and food stuffs like chicken/eggs/beef etc. which will be hit with tariffs. Also that the Rules of Origin are still in play, so its only tariff free if a high enough proportion of components of the product are made in the UK. We would also then be outside the EUs Customs Union which as mentioned by a few on here incurs increased costs and complexity, any business with a longer supply chain will find the increases difficult to manage (think the Doc mentioned this)

 

Main concern for me with the Canadian model is from what I can see financial services are not part of the tariff free trade deal, so the EU (and so could Canada to be fair) could easily put tariffs on this area, which is huge for the UK.

 

The plan also does not mention at any point what discussions will need to be had about the 2.5m Brits living abroad, what support would be put in place for them.

 

Overall, its good to see a plan, and a direction i.e. Canadian model. I liked a few parts of it and some of it actually felt quite exciting, but still not convinced its best for me in my situation right now. So I am still, Stay.