Brexit 23rd June..?

[coldel]

Lets be honest the EU hasnt "given" us anything we as UK taxpayers bought and paid for it , the regulations they came up with may or may not be a good thing but its us that paid for them

 

Of course businesses would suffer if we left the EU but that doesnt mean that the "man in the street" would. "Brussels" is very costly to the UK tax payer the choice is whether people think that they get good value for money or not

 

The man in the street will suffer, its the exact issue that people seem to miss. Yes the Financial sector would be impacted, but so would foodstuffs for example, where do you think the majority of your bacon comes from because its not UK farms, they mostly arrive with a Danish accent. If the agreements are not favourable (and this is the debate really, how well can the UK negotiate? If we do well then we are ok, if we don't then we will see tariffs put on common products that we import) then cost of everyday goods goes up that we have to import from the EU.

 

Have you not noticed when buying something for your car from the EU vs buying it from the US how much more you have to pay to get the US good here? I know its not exactly the same thing as negotiating bi-lateral agreements, but it shows the man on the street is very much affected.

[Jetpilot]

So you dont think the 33million (inc rebates etc) we pay a day could be put to better use, we may have great trade, but we pay for that trade, its not free.

[coldel]

We pay £20bn a year, around £8bn we get back as a rebate so around £10bn-£12bn to be in the EU. We trade around £500bn yearly with the EU with a deficit in terms of imports vs exports. We are heavily dependent on the EU for many imports. If we retain status quo with the EU in terms of what we import then we need to make sure any additional tariffs for our £300bn imports do not exceed £12bn otherwise we are already out of pocket.

 

Alternatively we could trade more with other countries in Asia and the Americas for example, but we would be a small country negotiating with economic powerhouses like the US and China, there is a danger they just hang us out and charge what they like.

 

That £12bn effectively buys us access to the largest free trade market in the world worth something like £10tn - the UK is one of if not the largest member of the EU for foreign investment. The price is that £12bn plus the lack of unilateral decision making on key issues that give us this access (such as immigration).

 

If we pull out, we don't get that £12bn back, it will be used to supplement trade agreements...

Edited February 23, 2016 by coldel

[Jetpilot]

I get the figures, we pay x to get x, but thats not what I am asking, could we not not use that 33 million a day to create better industry, business, trade etc I dont know the answer and to be fair, neither do you, effectively what your saying is, its a good thing, why change and isnt this the whole question, would it or could it better if we do change. Ultimately that is the question being asked and with all due respect, I doubt there is anyone on here that would really be able to give a definitive yes or no.

[coldel]

Which is why this is a debate, if there were an answer then we would all just vote for the best choice, the problem with economics is its unpredictability.

 

In terms of the £12bn, you could do lots of things, you would want to avoid protectionism where the government uses the money to prop up businesses that are not viable - but yes you could pump lots of cash into supporting new businesses which would improve the peformance of business in this country that would be pretty clear cut. What isn't clear cut is if the costs of running those businesses if trading with the EU outweighs the investment which no one really knows as there is no precedent for what the UK is wanting to do. If the EU digs its heels in we are FUBAR regardless of £33m per day, if it plays ball we will be in a good position...that sounds appealing, but I dont think people appreciate what a good position we have already economically.

[Jetpilot]

I dont and cant argue with the trade and economic position we are in, i would be a fool to try, but and perhaps i speak for the man on the street seeing as on here at least we are still at 63% to leave, its the other things that go with it as a package, who knows the true cost of them?

 

When we joined the eu we had 20% of the vote, now 9.5%, is that right for the one of the main players?

 

In 5 years British meps voted against 576 eu proposals, 485 still passed and became law that we have to adopt, is that right?

[Ekona]

Yes. It's called democracy.

[Jetpilot]

Not when we dont want it

[Ekona]

Well, exactly.

 

People always complain when a free and democratic vote doesn't go their way, but in truth it's the fairest and most correct way of going about things.

[Jetpilot]

Agreed, but its one of the points about whether the UK want to be part of the club.

[Ekona]

I don't see it is. It's no different to the millions of people who didn't vote for a Tory government.

 

It's democracy, perhaps the reason that the EU regs went through is because we were being unrealistic and actually, every one else was right?

[coldel]

When we joined the EU there were 9 states in it, now there are 28, in terms of having 9.5% that is actually x3 more than based on counts alone i.e. 100%/28. When we have 20% of 9 states we only had x2 more based on counts, numerically its still a good place to be

 

The main problem with the EU voting from a UK perspective is that the majority of EU countries want closer integration whereas the UK wants to still retain clear space, which is what a lot of Camerons recent talks were about, he was basically arguing our soveringty against 20+ countries all wanting something else of which he got reasonable success. But yes generally our votes lose as we want something the majority do not want.

[Ekona]

And since we now have Special Status, that closer integration is no longer an issue.

[Sargara]

I vote leave.

 

I'm under no illusion there will be issues/hiccups and It wont be smooth sailing but I think the EU has had its day, its nothing like what we signed up to initially and I'd like to see/try without it rather than sticking with it just for the sake of it.

 

It also opens up possible closer ties with commonwealth/ex-commonwealth nations where I think we have greater growth potential. The EEC strangles all this currently.

[valy]

so the poll stands at the moment at 61.76% to leave but almost none of the guys that voted to leave have presented real facts to incline the balance in their favour ...I dare to say ,anyone that tried to argue this has received some good replies.... which denotes the limited knowledge on this matter of some of the voters....

Edited February 23, 2016 by valy

[coldel]

To be fair, its easier to put an argument to stay as facts are there as we have been living it for years - the Leave campaign have to try and pull together theoretical arguments which is tougher - that said, I have yet to see from the Leave campaign any sort of plan, even one without numbers, even the basics like who are they going to recruit to start, run and maintain the trade relations? There needs to be some business plan for me to be convinced to vote Leave, even if they estimate numbers (like you have to on most business plans) but there is nothing on the table and I struggle to vote for nothing?

[Jetpilot]

none of the guys that voted to leave have presented real facts to incline the balance in their favour

 

This is exactly why this isnt a debate, its the people wanting to stay telling the people who dont want to stay, their "reasons" arent valid

 

No one can tell me with any certainty our 33 million a day cant be better spent, because no one knows, just why upset the apple cart, thats no reason to stay in my opinion, perhaps we are all way out of our depth with will be better off, its just opinion based

[Ekona]

Not wanting to risk throwing an unstable economy down the river on the off chance that it might be better, with no guarantees or figures? That's not a valid reason to leave!

 

 

How about if I said to you that if you give me all your money, it might be better for you in about 15 years? I won't tell you how I'm going to do it because I actually don't know myself, but it'll definitely be better than what you've got now. You'd think I was absolutely crazy and tell me to sling my hook, and you'd be right to do so. The pound already slumped yesterday on the news of the referendum and the possibly we might leave given the opinion polls and the power of Boris, exactly what happened when it looked like Scotland was going to leave the UK. That uncertainty is only going to get worse, and the markets will fall over again.

[Jetpilot]

Your right but i am not asking you, i am trusting our government to be able to, rightly or wrongly.

 

You want to stay, i want to leave, your think your right and thats your choice, i have zero issue with it, whether you believe my reasons valid is just opinion, hence why this isnt really a debate and didnt want to give my reasons as no one who wants to stay will except them

[Ekona]

What makes you think that? I can happily accept a justified reason for wanting to leave, I just may not agree with it. What I find odd is that a person who is clearly intelligent and has an interest in this matter isn't willing to give a single reason as to their decision.

 

But hey, it's the internet and you're free to do as you wish.

[Jetpilot]

I have given you reasons, just ones you dont think are valid or justified The rules and regs (other countries deciding what we can and cant do) and the money it costs us, those are my reasons.

[Rock_Steady]

There's no point comparing the EU from yester-year with the EU we have today. It's a completely different machine. So basing it on the past on whether we'd be better off or not is pointless. One thing is for certain, some countries benefit from the EU more than others, it's not a level playing field. Sorry to drag Greece into this but, what have they got to offer the union? A whole load of bad economic decisions and quite a few bail-outs. Why were they allowed to join the in the first place? Originally the Eu was for trading, what does Greece have to offer in the forms of trade? Not a lot, not a lot ( to quote Paul Daniels ) IMO, The EU just doesn't work anymore. To many people have been invited to the party and some of them are not bringing any food or wine but they bloody well are drinking and eating it. Tons of red tape/views/rules that just don't work for everyone.

[Jetpilot]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16834815

[MJC]

I'm now in support of the 'stay vote' as i've now had time to read through the changes secured in last weeks meetings and agree that it will give control of certain aspects of the UK back in the hands of our own government.

 

I think almost all of the 'out' brigade could be brought round if one fundamental change in policy would also be reviewed- foreign aid. If the UK cut out the pointless foreign aid package such as the hundreds of millions we send a certain country that is mid way through establishing their own space program, the NHS cuts would be reversed and some of the unduly harsh benefit cuts could also be dropped.

[coldel]

I have given you reasons, just ones you dont think are valid or justified The rules and regs (other countries deciding what we can and cant do) and the money it costs us, those are my reasons.

 

It is a debate if the Leave campaign had some business plan for the exit, you could quite viably debate the benefits that they have researched and presented.

 

OK - if I were to put numbers against it then - based on other countries, the rules and regs stay in play to around 80-90% exiting will not change this. Freedom of movement is part and parcel of being allowed to operate in the free market for example, I suspect they might though allow you to take EU markings of tyres

 

Additionally we pay a tax if you like to be in the EU of 6% (£12bn to get £300bn imports and £200bn exports), to give context a start point for anything coming into the UK is going to be at least 20% based on how we trade with the US currently.

 

That in a nutshell makes me think throwing caution to wind to something that currently has no economic or legal basis means, I cannot justify voting Leave on that basis.

 

How about we put it this way, worst case scenario cost to taxpayer numbers that have been tossed around have been £3000-£4000 per year, disregarding for a minute the arguments behind it and whether its true or not, to Leave and get the benefits you believe it will bring, are you willing to possibly be £4000 a year out of pocket? If you are willing to take that financial chance for an independent UK then by all means you cannot debate anyone wanting to vote Leave.

Edited February 23, 2016 by coldel