Brexit 23rd June..?

[coldel]

I think I despair about the idea that we leave and 'take control' and that people do not want to understand what that entails. The idea that there is switch that gets flicked in the summer if we vote leave that does this is ludicrous. The idea that we could be in a free market and 'shut up shop' in terms of immigration is equally ludicrous.

 

What makes me fear for my child is growing up in a paranoid and isolated society with some sort of island mentality. Sure immigration is something that needs to be looked at and current process is probably not suitable, but that is better achieved being part of the EU I think. The idea of 'shutting up shop' to immigrants and all the negative economic and social connotations that come with it don't bare thinking about.

 

So fine, we 'shut up shop' and in response EU puts 10% levy on all our imports and exports, which pushes up prices from manufacturing, agriculture to food stuffs in Tesco. Are you willing to take the risk that your child will have to pay more for food, power, cars? That their disposable income could potentially be much worse off? If so then fine.

[Ekona]

A lot of people are, and I think that's a shame.

 

That said, I genuinely don't think there'll much difference if we're in or out. We'll still have to abide by EU regs, we'll still need mass immigration to fill the crappy jobs, and we'll still have to argue the toss over money stuff. I do think we'll suffer economically in the short term, and I think it's a shame that my future kids won't just be able to pop over to Europe and grab a job during their gap year, but ultimately it'll just be more of the same.

 

I'd rather be trying to influence from the inside than the outside though, and I think that's where we'll suffer the most.

[Jetpilot]

So fine, we 'shut up shop' and in response EU puts 10% levy on all our imports and exports, which pushes up prices from manufacturing, agriculture to food stuffs in Tesco. Are you willing to take the risk that your child will have to pay more for food, power, cars? That their disposable income could potentially be much worse off? If so then fine.

 

Whilst i fully bow to your understanding of the politics behind this, there is absolutely NO guarantee this will happen or the £ plummeting etc as others have said and whilst i agree no politicians are giving you an answer to how the proposed the exit will happen, no one is reassuring anyone of our membership if we stay.

 

On the flip side, are you prepared to take the risk that our continued membership within the EU wont lead to a huge rise in our contributions over the years, that we lose the pound sterling, that our trade wont continue to decline to a disproportionate level vs contributions etc

 

Personally i could could quite easily go along with the proposed collapse of the eu if we leave, so the free trade will be up for debate anyway if there is no more EU.

Edited May 12, 2016 by Jetpilot

[coldel]

Aye fair comment JP, hence why I said take the risk. I would rather take the risks that you pointed out vs the risks briefly mentioned in my post, we could argue the toss about which are more likely but I think its sensible to leave it there. I guess personally having lived in Europe, Asia and the UK maybe I like the idea of some sort of economic integration.

[Ekona]

I'll have £10 with you JP on the pound dropping if we vote to leave. It went down as soon as the poll was announced and early surveys said we'd vote leave, so I reckon my money is safe there.

 

 

We'll never, ever lose Sterling if we stay in. Ever. It would be suicide for any government to ever contemplate that. You'd see the Yanks ditch the dollar first, and that ain't likely either.

[Jetpilot]

I'll have £10 with you JP on the pound dropping if we vote to leave.

 

Define your version of "plummet" as you previously said and i will take the bet, payable to the club.

Edited May 12, 2016 by Jetpilot

[Andy_Muxlow]

There is always going to be uncertainty with what's going to happen after the vote, as has been said before no one knows the outcome either way in or out. It's just personal choice at the end of the day.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Ekona]

@JP: Go down, really. I've no idea by how much as I don't follow the currency market that well, but let's assume it's more than just 0.1% or something daft. Tell you what, let's ask Lexx to decide, as Admin here I'd be happy with him to be impartial if that works for you?

 

And my £10 to charity please, the Club's got enough money in the bank

[Jetpilot]

You sure your not a politician

 

Plummet as you sensationalised earlier would be the bet, a few p here and there is insignificant.

 

So what is your view on plummet, happy to continue the chat via pm for the bet guidelines

 

Also happy to have a view from the upper echelon on their definition of plummet.

[Ekona]

Well, I guess I'd call a similar drop to what happened post-vote announcement a plummet.

[Ekona]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36273448

 

Mark Carney says a Brexit may spark a recession. A man worth listening to, considering his position.

[Jetpilot]

Listen to a banker, you got to be kidding me right, they are one of the main reasons we are in this sh*t!!!!

Edited May 12, 2016 by Jetpilot

[Ekona]

You know who he is though, right? That's like saying the Queen is just an old lady with a nice line in jewellery.

[Floydbax]

http://www.bbc.co.uk...siness-36273448

 

Mark Carney says a Brexit may spark a recession. A man worth listening to, considering his position.

 

That is the biggest load of codswallop ever. It's full of assumptions based on statistics designed to come to those conclusions. It's designed to scare those who are unsure about getting out into voting to remain the same. Honestly, if we leave nothing will change for the worse. They will look at the things that work and keep them. Why would any sane, intelligent person do anything else? The things that don't work will finally get addressed, something that will never happen if we don't get out. For F's sake yesterday they had Gordon Brown that renowned 'expert' telling us the same rubbish, come on, his record isn't exactly very good is it? The guy's an economic moron!

 

Read this:

 

 

http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/668967/Treasury-BLASTED-by-top-economist-for-flawed-Brexit-report-that-treats-us-like-fools

[Ekona]

Hang on, you can't claim a load of rubbish and then link to an article from the Daily Express!!

[BobbyZ]

Of course there will be a slow down in the economy straight after a leave vote, because investors will be wary of potential implications. Markets are fickle though, and go up or down at the slightest hint of confidence or caution, Dan's example of sterling dropping when the referendum was announced being an example. That doesn't necessarily mean that it will be fundamentally bad for the economy in the long run though which is of course what matters.

[coldel]

The slow down began last year with the impending referendum, its already on us. As mentioned, uncertainty is what causes bad business, lower investment, reduced growth and so on and so forth. If I were a foreign investor would I put money into a business in the UK that could potentially see my product hit with levies not in place in a European country? This is what the bank is highlighting, and for what you might think of bankers, they are in some way more impartial than any journo with an agenda to sensationalise in a newspaper to sell copies.

[rtbiscuit]

is the pound losing strength a bad thing?

 

won't it make our exports more appealing as they'll be cheaper to sell.

 

yes our import costs will go up, but is that not a good excuse to buy british where possible? the French do it as do the germans.

[Ekona]

Depends if you like holidays or not

 

No-one buys British just for the sake of it any more, not when a lot of our stuff is overpriced tat. If you're going to buy tat, might as well buy cheap tat. I like the theory of buying British, but I can't remember the last time I did on purpose.

[Floydbax]

Hang on, you can't claim a load of rubbish and then link to an article from the Daily Express!!

 

Sorry - The story's in a few that's just the first link that popped up

[coldel]

Two things on the pound fall, firstly why is it falling and secondly, the impact of the UK credit rating.

 

Its falling because the UK is being seen as more and more of a risk, potential impact on growth inflation and interest rates all in potentially bad places push the value of the pound down. So the fact that you could say exports are cheaper to sell which is good, but also it means that to achieve that our country is seen as a risk to foreign investment, which longer term is not a good thing.

 

Secondly, is the UKs credit rating, our country issues bonds which have high ratings, because of our creditworthiness. This makes us able to sell our country as an investment but also to allow the government to manage budget deficits - if we take a hit on our credit rating, this impacts our budgets and ultimate consumers pockets as the government has to hit us with costs to manage our deficit.

[Floydbax]

Of course there will be a slow down in the economy straight after a leave vote, because investors will be wary of potential implications. Markets are fickle though, and go up or down at the slightest hint of confidence or caution, Dan's example of sterling dropping when the referendum was announced being an example. That doesn't necessarily mean that it will be fundamentally bad for the economy in the long run though which is of course what matters.

 

Hypothetically it would only make a difference if when we leave then all trade deals and current and future already sealed deals in trade were cancelled. Even they are not stupid enough to do that, it would threaten their own economies. I happen to firmly believe that those who have the power to negotiate these things on both our and Europe's side are a bunch of lazy self-serving corrupt gits. I would have thought as I have already said, that those inter UK/Europe deals that are already in place that actually work will stay the same, they work, why bother changing them? This work for both sides of trade, we buy stuff from there as well as sell it and they need this trade as much as we do for their own economies, why would they risk us putting up barriers, or put barriers up to stop us selling stuff to their traders who resell within their markets driving their economies? It's pure scare tactics to claim any economic demise on the part of the UK.

[Ekona]

So if everything will stay the same, why spend the money to leave?

[Floydbax]

We need to leave in order to renegotiate a proper deal. The one Cameron has is not a deal, it is nothing. We need to negotiate back to how the alliance was before we started getting integrated into the European Superstate, when we had an economic common market that worked and worked really well, helping to provide the prosperity of the Blair years. Sadly further integration means allowing control of aspects of running our country to be dictated by unelected people who have no direct interest in our county's wellbeing and more in their own and their own country's. The short term cost of leaving will be next to nothing compared to the saving in what we dole out for the privilege of helping out poorer EU economies and improvement in our strong economy. The unease in the market is not driven by worry about us leaving i'ts just what these money brokers do, chances are that as soon as the vote to get out is made the investment comes flooding in, more than if we don't get out!

[Ekona]

So how do we negotiate a better deal if everyone is too lazy, and they'll just keep things the way they are?

 

I don't mean to be deliberately obtuse (for a change), it just looks like a contradiction.