Brexit 23rd June..?

[andlid]

http://video.consilium.europa.eu/en/webcast/963af034-a087-472a-8176-4acf4e5f8748

 

my guess is that UK wont call for the exit article...

[coldel]

Haydn, so yes typo 1.9%

 

So if 1.9% had not voted Leave we would have been at 50/50 - so 1.9% of the total voting sample of the population were the defining percentage. To my point, thats hardly 'the will of the people' when the different is so small.

[HaydnH]

Haydn, so yes typo 1.9%

 

So if 1.9% had not voted Leave we would have been at 50/50 - so 1.9% of the total voting sample of the population were the defining percentage. To my point, thats hardly 'the will of the people' when the different is so small.

 

if 1.9% hadn't voted leave then it would have been 50% leave vs 48.1% remain. *shrug*

[GMballistic]

Haydn, so yes typo 1.9%

 

So if 1.9% had not voted Leave we would have been at 50/50 - so 1.9% of the total voting sample of the population were the defining percentage. To my point, thats hardly 'the will of the people' when the different is so small.

 

I'm not going to start posting in this thread a lot as tbh I don't really want to talk about this subject but, ....talking percentages is a little misleading imo.

From what I've read:

 

Thursdays referendum saw 17.4 million (51.9%) votes cast to leave the EU, compared with 16.1 million (48.1%) for remaining with a turnout of 72.2%.

 

That equates to a difference of 1.3 million people who voted to leave the EU, ...that's hardly a small difference imo. Basically the population of a small country voting the other way (population of Estonia or Trinidad & Tobago for example).

 

 

 

It's happened now so people just need to get on & look to the future to see what happens next.

[andlid]

just a note, 5 times the amount of British people have applied for a Swedish passport in a week. whats that all about? do they think a wall is going to be built around your country or what?

[Adrian@TORQEN]

"English could be banned as an official language of the EU after Brexit despite being the most spoken in Europe, an official has admitted.

 

Although it is the main working tongue of European Union institutions, it might be dropped when Britain leaves the bloc - further reducing the UK's influence on the continent.

 

Each member state has the right to nominate a primary language in Brussels, but no state other than Britain has registered English."

 

http://tgr.ph/x6bURh

 

I don't want to imagine the treatment we'll get abroad in EU, when on holiday, after leaving EU, for not being able to speak the local language and addressing in English like use to do

 

Time to learn Spanish, French, Italian etc

[andlid]

Eh Cameron just stated UK are leaving the Union... didnt think hed actually state that today

[HaydnH]

Eh Cameron just stated UK are leaving the Union... didnt think hed actually state that today

 

As much as I dislike Farage, he's actually quite accurate today:

 

"The biggest problem you've got and the reason, the main reason the United Kingdom voted the way that it did, is you have, by stealth, by deception, without ever telling the truth to the British or the rest of the peoples of Europe, you have imposed upon them a political union."

 

I think Cameron also understands that one of the main leave arguments was regarding the perceived lack of democracy in the EU, anything other than leaving now will compound that... or maybe he's just returned to his anti-EU position he held a few years ago, in fact maybe it was all just a ploy for us to leave and he's been really clever... Where's my tin foil hat?

[rtbiscuit]

the french have been trying for decades to get the EU language to be primarily french

 

a 2nd referendum wouldn't surprise me, i think for a lot of people even in the remain camp wanted a leave vote in order to see if they could get better terms. i think when they get close to what they want, they'll either have a 2nd vote or just overturn it in the commons and put us in.

 

if sturgeon had stayed onboard for now at least to see what they could push for they'd be in a better position, but shes just undermining things at the moment. its about putting the pressure back on the EU. As Chesterfield said its about who blinks first.

 

at the last negotiations we had no leverage nothing to play with, Cameron knew it at the time its why we got bog all. now if we let them sweat for a bit and then go back to the table, and the leverage we now have is the possibility to destabilise the EU or even unravel it, they are going to sit up and take far more notice. and if we don't we go anyway. its one hell of a gamble, but could see something happen that keeps all parties moderately happy.

[Richf]

Haydn, so yes typo 1.9%

 

So if 1.9% had not voted Leave we would have been at 50/50 - so 1.9% of the total voting sample of the population were the defining percentage. To my point, thats hardly 'the will of the people' when the different is so small.

 

I made this point way back in the thread that when the difference was so close no one side can really declare it a victory , but if there is another referendum A) I'm not sure the result would be any more decisive It would make the UK a laughing stock and create even more fear in the markets, but I really dont think it will happen.

 

Make no bones about it lots of people are making a lot of money at the moment, I have a cousin who works for a large UK based bank and they are making millions trading in currency and are working 24 hr shifts at present

[rtbiscuit]

to argue the amount of voters wasn't large enough or the % difference isn't big enough is odd, we've been seeing voter turnout at general elections as low as 40% for years, of which the winning party is made of just half that at best. means we have for years happily been voting in a controlling body that only 20% of the population actually voted for. and now we have a turnout of 75% of which half then voted to leave would suggest a far more accurate vote more representative of the populous than in the past.

 

If we're going to discuss voting turnout as a key point then it needs to be changed in government and from that point on all votes and elections should be a compulsory turnout, but the option for "none of the above" should be on the voting slip.

[HaydnH]

From this article: http://www.bbc.co.uk...litics-36647948

 

People should have their say on the terms of the UK's exit deal with the EU, Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt said.

Mr Hunt, who said he was "seriously considering" a bid for the Conservative leadership, said this should be either through a general election or a second referendum.

 

Did anyone else read that as "hey, 48% of the population, vote for me please"?

[coldel]

You cant have a government on a tiny % though, hence the coalition we had last time. Which is why the small difference is very important.

 

The turnout was pretty poor in my opinion, given the amount that turned out for Scotland. Everyone seems to have a strong opinion on it but 15m never bothered to vote?

[nievelc]

I doubt there will be a second referendum, i seriously do and to be honest I agree with RichF we would look like absolute fools and that would not be very English to swallow our pride now would it! I am keen to see what happens in the next few months if any good comes in terms of leadership.

In any case, that racist thug Farage needs to be deported back to the north sea oil well where he crawled out of, vile specimen.

[Chesterfield]

You cant have a government on a tiny % though, hence the coalition we had last time. Which is why the small difference is very important.

 

Current government has 50.9% of the seats, with 36.9% of the vote.

[nievelc]

I think I would go as far as to say he is the english abu hamzah dressing his dark motives up in as the interest of the british population.

[HaydnH]

You cant have a government on a tiny % though ...

 

The turnout was pretty poor in my opinion, given the amount that turned out for Scotland. ...

 

4% is quite a margin, it's enough for Cameron to resign over the "decisive" result.

 

Turnout for the EU referendum in Scotland was 67% while in Wales it was 72% and in England 73%. However I guess you mean for the Scottish independence referendum which saw 85% turnout, the highest figure since the 1910 general election where no women and less men were allowed to cast a vote so you'd expect a higher turnout percentage.

[coldel]

Yes meant the scottish referendum

 

But its not 4% of the voting population voting to Leave over Remain, its 1.9% because if they had voted the other way it would then be 50/50 - if 1.9% of the people voting Leave had voted stay it would have been 50/50 so they were the ones that swung it. Its effectively the football 6 pointer.

 

What this is measuring is effectively the 'swing' in voting, you take the rise in one group and the decline in the other and divide by two to measure swing voting. So the Remain camp would only have needed 1.9% of the voting to have changed their mind to have got us to a 50/50 result.

Edited June 28, 2016 by coldel

[Chesterfield]

"English could be banned as an official language of the EU after Brexit despite being the most spoken in Europe, an official has admitted.

 

I can see that doing them a great deal of favours with the US trade negotiators.

 

It will be interesting to see how far either side is going to take this to stick to their guns.

[coldel]

The worst thing we can have is Farage walking in there and crowing like he has been doing this morning, there is such thing as winning with dignity and this will only turn individuals against us in any trade discussion. We had to be the bigger man in this but Farage sees this as his own personal vendetta - as did most of the Leave campaign, they almost don't seem at all engaged with the actual process of exiting the EU now and their behaviour is not conducive to making our position stronger.

[Chesterfield]

You mean be the bigger person like Juncker asking "what are you even doing here?" Or calls for English to be dropped as the official language, or refusing to even talk until article 50 is invoked?

 

The immaturity is staggering on all sides here imho.

 

From Farage crowing to some EU politicians simply throwing their toys out at the slightest bit of suggestion the EU is partly to blame.

 

The MEP speaker for Sinn Fein was a perfect example. She was receiving rounds of applause when asking for the EU to recognise they votedo to remain. But as soon as she suggested that the EU needed to look at its anti democratic practices, the boos came and so did the interruptions from Martin Schulz.

 

They are simply incapable of accepting there may be some that view the EU as undemocratic. Even when that suggestion comes from somebody passionate about staying in!

[zxrob]

 

But its not 4% of the voting population voting to Leave over Remain, its 1.9% because if they had voted the other way it would then be 50/50 - if 1.9% of the people voting Leave had voted stay it would have been 50/50 so they were the ones that swung it. Its effectively the football 6 pointer.

 

Your not a statistician gunning for MEP re-election are you ????

 

Nah, got it, your Uri Gellars apprentice

 

Rob

[coldel]

Aye fair point, both sides are being so childish its stupid, but that's the exact point I was making, be the bigger man and don't rise to it - that's the sign of a real leader.

 

My other point really is that the EU has an army of trade negotiators and more money to throw at this than we do - we need a few friends in the EU to make this work in our favour. Burning bridges at this stage is not professional and will not lead to our optimum outcome, in my modest opinion.

[Adrian@TORQEN]

A different view on "lost, just get on with it, stop moaning":

 

"There is something I need to say. it will be a long post. Some of my friends might be offended, that is not my intention. But I need to say this. Please read it, even if you don't read my other EU posts.

 

Since the referendum result, it has been a much repeated statement that those of us still talking about the referendum should just shut up. Some people are polite and blindly optimistic, saying 'let's focus on what unites us, let's work together'. Other people are offensive, calling Remain voters bad losers, or worse. I need to tell you why I cannot - will not - be silenced on this. Why working together seems so difficult today.

 

A common thread seems to be 'we're all allowed an opinion, let us have our opinion and stop arguing about it, accept that some people don't agree with you and those people won.' Yes, you are allowed an opinion. You can form an opinion about whatever in the world you want to and I fully respect your right to that. You can have an opinion that the sky is purple with yellow spots if you want. However, if I asked you to bet your livelihood and future, and that of all the people around you, on whether your opinion of the sky is right, I would at least expect you to look up to check your facts are right. When you found the sky was, in fact, blue, I would expect you to respond accordingly. Sometimes there is a right answer and a wrong answer. Sometimes we cannot agree to disagree, however nice the sentiment is. Too many people have voiced the sentiment - 'I have a right to an opinion even though I don't really understand the EU or politics, so just leave me alone and stop challenging me.' You had a right to that opinion. But before you cast a vote, you had the responsibility to back that opinion up with fact. To at least start to understand what you were voting on. There was an awful lot of information out there during the debate. If you voted without really understanding the facts then I have every right to challenge you and I won't stop just because it makes you uncomfortable. This is far, far too important. All those people Googling what the EU means on the 24th June, or telling us all how they didn't really understand, just had a 'feeling' which way to vote should all be ashamed.

 

I will also address the idea that we don't like having 'lost'. I could not care less, this isn't a tennis match and I never saw it as 'winning or losing'. I saw it as fighting for the future, for hope, for diversity and tolerance. I saw it as making a decision that wasn't inward-looking and selfish, as being part of the modern world. 75% of the younger people of this country also had this vision for the future. I don't feel that I have lost a game. I feel that our whole country has been betrayed, destroyed (in the sense that the UK will disintegrate) and lost any respect in the eyes of the world. We have all lost the benefits of EU citizenship, even those of us who wanted to keep it. We have voted to be left on our little rock, all alone. All the values of 'Britishness' I identified with have been undermined. I do not feel any common ground with the vocal parts of the Leave campaign. Not because they 'won' and we 'lost' but because I simply do not have that mindset and I find most of what they have said to be offensive. The whole world has 'lost' after this referendum.

 

I do not want to tar all Leave voters with the same brush. I respect that there were individual people who made decisions based on thoughtful points of view. In my next words, I'm not saying all Leave voters are the same. Nor are all Remain voters automatically good people. However. I campaigned on the streets, I read article after article, I engaged in endless social media conversations. I know the tone of this debate. And the Leave side employed anti-immigrant and racist rhetoric. Many Leave voters voted because they wanted to restrict freedom of movement. I know because they told me, often aggressively. And, today, I've heard from migrant and British ethnic minority friends that they feel threatened and unwelcome in this country. They are worried to leave the house. They have seen that half of the country are willing to ally themselves with a racist and anti-immigrant campaign, even if they do not feel that way themselves. That is not a situation in which we can just keep quiet and find a way to work together. I don't think all leave voters are racists but I fear that the racists now feel legitimacy, that they think half the country agrees with them. I have already heard this expressed on social media.

 

'The majority have spoken, that's democracy', I've been told. But is it? Have they? The Scots don't think so, for a start. Do we have a country in which an angry majority can trample over the rights and wishes of a minority? That's a little scary. This referendum campaign was full of lies (yes, on both sides, but more of them on the Leave side, as the media is finally acknowledging) and many, many people voted with no knowledge of what they were voting on. For so many, if it wasn't about immigration, it was a protest vote against the Conservatives or against politics and politicians in general. The majority haven't actually spoken about the EU, they've expressed anger on all kinds of issues. None of this seems like a good basis for a decision that will throw us into recession and isolation, that will strip our young people of the right to live, work and study abroad, will affect every aspect of our lives. It was an irresponsible referendum because it had no regulations relating to what level of turnout or majority would give it legitimacy. I have resisted signing the petition for a new referendum so far because I want to be seen to be respecting the democratic decision. But I am beginning to see it as far from democratic or representative. And with so many of the Leave voters now saying they would change their vote if they could, what would the result of a referendum today actually be? Maybe we should find out before we think about triggering Article 50 and actually leaving the EU. Can we really let this decision stand after such a shabby campaign and with a small majority result? This is why I am proud of the Lib Dem stance to challenge the referendum and fight to stay in the EU at the next General Election.

 

There is an awful lot more I could say. But I will end with this. I am shocked, frightened and horrified by this. By the divisions in the country and by the outcome of the referendum. I feel alienated from a country I have always been proud of, in a liberal non-nationalistic sense. I have friends who feel even worse because they're migrants or minorities. Virtually the entire population of the world thinks we've lost our minds. We've become an inspiration for the French far right, for the Texas Tea Party movement and congratulated by Donald Trump. American and European friends are writing to me to express sympathy and disbelief that we could do this. I need to talk about this personally because I am mourning and talking helps. Don't you dare tell me to shut up if your vote is part of the reason I feel this way today. Block me if you don't care, but don't silence me.

 

If you are not talking about this, you do not understand how important this is. You have underestimated the impact. Not just on the economy or trade or freedom of movement. But on society, ideology, the heart and soul of this nation. On the whole world. If you are not still talking about this, you are irresponsible, in my eyes. This conversation is one of the most important in the nation's history. It will define who we are for generations to come.

 

But hey, you have your opinion don't you? And it sound lovely to say we should all just get along. Sounds like you're rising above it all. This will affect you too. And then you might be glad that some of us are talking about what it means.

 

I am the 48% #WeAreThe48"

 

Rebecca S Buck

Edited June 28, 2016 by Adrian@TORQEN

[coldel]

But its not 4% of the voting population voting to Leave over Remain, its 1.9% because if they had voted the other way it would then be 50/50 - if 1.9% of the people voting Leave had voted stay it would have been 50/50 so they were the ones that swung it. Its effectively the football 6 pointer.

 

Your not a statistician gunning for MEP re-election are you ????

 

Nah, got it, your Uri Gellars apprentice

 

Rob

 

Just simple numbers and facts, something the leave campaigners even post referendum can't get their heads around