Brexit 23rd June..?

[coldel]

PS, none of these responses are aimed at you JP at a personal level, I imagine your reasons for leaving are probably the same as the majority who want out - clearly there is a common theme there that people arent happy with.

[coldel]

I'm now in support of the 'stay vote' as i've now had time to read through the changes secured in last weeks meetings and agree that it will give control of certain aspects of the UK back in the hands of our own government.

 

I think almost all of the 'out' brigade could be brought round if one fundamental change in policy would also be reviewed- foreign aid. If the UK cut out the pointless foreign aid package such as the hundreds of millions we send a certain country that is mid way through establishing their own space program, the NHS cuts would be reversed and some of the unduly harsh benefit cuts could also be dropped.

 

This is a separate issue, foreign aid is something signed up to globally (the US is the highest contributor of foreign aid for instance), however I have a few issues with it and it shouldn't work as it stands. I am not against a country which is relatively wealthy per head helping a poor country where people die because they get a cold, or that half of all children die before the age of 5 etc. But firstly the money is not used properly, the governments in receipt often spend the money badly. Secondly, the countries in the UN who signed up to it signed up to give a % of GDP but many countries are using back doors to get out of paying the full amount. The UK stands but this commitment, many other countries do not.

[Jetpilot]

Look guys, in respect, its no different to Fanny believing mpss are the best thing since sliced bread or Posrches are the pinnacle of motoring and what everyone should aspire too, he may well be absolutely right, doesnt mean everyone has to agree, his reasons are not right or wrong, they are his "choices", we now have a choice, if we decide as a nation to stay, i have zero problem, if we decide to leave, i also have zero problem, but my choice is to leave, its really very simple, perhaps like my views on the subject.

 

I actually agree with foreign aid, what i dont agree with is the fact we are told on a daily basis we have no money and have to make cutbacks, it may sound selfish, but i would really prefer the money being put to helping this country if it can be found.

[Ekona]

I have given you reasons, just ones you dont think are valid or justified The rules and regs (other countries deciding what we can and cant do) and the money it costs us, those are my reasons.

Okay, so how would things change if we left?

 

You'd still have people making decisions for you, even if you didn't vote for them: It would just be on a national Government level as it always has been, rather than a Europe-wide scale.

 

As Col has said, the country would be massively worse off financially, which will hit you directly in the pocket. Do you want to spend another few grand a year just to be independent, when nothing practical has changed? There would be EVEN MORE cutbacks, not less. No different to when Scotland wanted out, the financial cost alone would've been enormous.

 

 

As long as you understand that's what will happen, then that's fine. I think it's madness, but if you understand the consequences of your decision then fair enough. My point isn't that your choice is wrong, my point is it's misinformed and you're actually going to end up with the opposite to what you're after.

[docwra]

Coldel is still on the money for me.

 

The problem is that a lot of people will boil this down to one issue, like a Greek bailout or immigration to the UK when theres actually a lot of stuff to consider.

 

For me the main driver is its the economic side of things, and while theres a cost to being in the EU its a lot less than I think the cost would be of going it alone even before you start to consider the massive upheaval of pretty much everything relating to trade if we were to bang out. Similarly to Scottish devolution, there doesnt seem to be any plan or firm information on what would happen if we did leave, and you only have to look at Norway and Switzerland to be scared by that

[Wayne370Z]

I have to hold my hands up and say that I know next to nothing about the pros and cons of being in the EU and if I vote will only be able to do so based on what I have heard about or perceive to be the benefits of leaving. ie, the ridiculous laws and regulations imposed upon us, stopping the health tourism, immigration, the free-for-all access to our benefits system, paying so much into the EU, etc.

For these things, to me, you can easily see why we don`t need them;

EU laws, yes it might be easy to show why tyre markings are good but there was no attempt at justification for the bananas ..

I think it`s widely acknowledged that there has been many cases of people heading over to the UK for the free treatment that they cant get/afford in their own country.

I really don`t know if or why we need so many migrant workers (that we`re always being told we do) whilst having so many unemployed in this country already that should be given the opportunity/made to work for a living. The sceptic in me believes it`s a lot to do with what employers can get away with employing them rather than a UK worker, or, it`s just become the cheap and easy option as opposed to traditionally taking on someone new and training them to do a job. I accept we may be short of some specialists but again wonder why is that? Because the cheaper option is not to train them ourselves?

I wonder what is the ratio of those here and working for a living compared to those here just living off the state without any previous contribution to it?

I am also of the camp that we get nothing for nothing and we have already paid for any monetary benefits or the like that we have received back from the EU.

So far I see the only benefit of staying which keeps being mentioned on here is trade agreements which I expect really just translates to more money to be made for those in the business of trading. I know if their costs go up we pay more but I suspect it is far more about increased profits for them rather than cheaper prices for us.

Seems to me that every country and his dog wants to, and has now been allowed to join but I wonder if for those with very little to offer it`s just a way to benefit off of those countries with more?

Most importantly though, if I were to research it or listen to anyone spouting on about the pros and cons (especially politicians) I, firstly, would be very dubious about believing what they said, ie. whether or not they were just plain lying about it for their own purposes, or, secondly, wonder that even if they were being truthful in what they were saying, was it factually correct?

So what are the other benefits of being in the EU? I thought that passing through borders without needing a passport was going to be a cool one but that never really happens does it? Everyone still wants to see it,.. (the passport that is)

Living/working in EU countries - a benefit only of use to those who want to do it.!

So where/what/are there any benefits for everyone else?

Although, if it is going to cost more to lay on a Mediterranean beach in the sun having a few San Miguels - I`ll have to vote to stay in....

[coldel]

I think your post sums it up Wayne, there is very little in the way of objective views on this in a format that can be read by someone who hasn't the inclination to plow through endless technical documents.

 

Best thing is to dispel the minorities, so arguments like health tourists are so few and far between and in the grand scheme of things cost the country pennies - arguments around these sorts of things are to be had and it shouldn't happen, but its not this sort of thing that would hold a country back from being prosperous. These sorts of issues are best left to the column inches in trash papers like the Mail in all honesty.

 

Its not easy for countries to join the EU, Turkey fail a number of tests and have done for years and have to work through bi-lateral agreements - they don't just let anyone in, the real issue is allowing countries to join the Euro in which case they need to prove further their economic capabilities.

 

The negotiations Cameron has just had with regards apply totally to 'people living off the state who never put into it' in effect we will be able to boot out anyone who hasn't found work within 6 months for instance. In my view Cameron could have done better, he seems a bit of a soft touch compared to some previous leaders.

 

Most observers (CBI for instance) have done plenty of research on the benefits of being in the EU, there are net worth estimates of something in the region of £65bn, how accurate this is open to debate but most will say there is a net worth to being in it - you put in £12bn you get out £77bn. What the Leave campaigners have to convince me is that our outside EU trading will give a bigger net worth, which again it isn't and hasn't tried to establish.

[Zeezeebaba]

As per usual we are all subject to the propaganda machine. To hazard a guess here I would say the baby boomer generation will primarily vote out and most will vote based on two issues based on personal loss and immigration.

I'm sure there will be a huge influx of rhetoric and babble from both sides over the next few months clouding the facts either way.

 

[docwra]

Col, what do you do for a living mate? You seem to be incredibly well informed, I thought I knew my onions but you are the Allium master

[coldel]

I did a stats and economics degree and work as an operations director at a well know big data company which links to major retailers in the UK, the economic lie of the land is important to the company I work in - and I just find this sort of thing fascinating and read up on stuff most weeks - yes I know

 

Edit: my thesis at uni was an appraisal of the UKs seven tests of existence within monetary union, wrote that back in 1998 though!

Edited February 23, 2016 by coldel

[Stutopia]

I did a stats and economics degree and work as an operations director at a well know big data company which links to major retailers in the UK, the economic lie of the land is important to the company I work in - and I just find this sort of thing fascinating and read up on stuff most weeks - yes I know

 

Edit: my thesis at uni was an appraisal of the UKs seven tests of existence within monetary union, wrote that back in 1998 though!

 

So what you're saying is, you're in no position to confirm either the state of banana bending or the reinstatement of imperial weights and measures, in a post-exit world?

 

Thanks!

[coldel]

I did a stats and economics degree and work as an operations director at a well know big data company which links to major retailers in the UK, the economic lie of the land is important to the company I work in - and I just find this sort of thing fascinating and read up on stuff most weeks - yes I know

 

Edit: my thesis at uni was an appraisal of the UKs seven tests of existence within monetary union, wrote that back in 1998 though!

 

So what you're saying is, you're in no position to confirm either the state of banana bending or the reinstatement of imperial weights and measures, in a post-exit world?

 

Thanks!

 

Bananas should be bent, they are bent in every episode of Bananaman I ever watched which is as everyone knows gospel on the subject of bananas

[Fodder]

I did a stats and economics degree and work as an operations director at a well know big data company which links to major retailers in the UK, the economic lie of the land is important to the company I work in - and I just find this sort of thing fascinating and read up on stuff most weeks - yes I know

 

Edit: my thesis at uni was an appraisal of the UKs seven tests of existence within monetary union, wrote that back in 1998 though!

 

So what you're saying is, you're in no position to confirm either the state of banana bending or the reinstatement of imperial weights and measures, in a post-exit world?

 

Thanks!

 

Bananas should be bent, they are bent in every episode of Bananaman I ever watched which is as everyone knows gospel on the subject of bananas

So the EU is anti bananaman.... I think we have our answer. Wait til Boris works this one out, he will be in the campaign poster

[Stutopia]

Sub question. Should the people of the U.K. vote to leave, would the SNP be in a position to (and rightly so in my mind) demand a new independence referendum? And not just the Scots, there's the Welsh and Northern Irish assemblies who might feel they're better off as a part of Europe than they are a part of the U.K.

[Ekona]

No. No more so than England should be able to have a referendum to leave them behind and re-join the EU.

[Angrybiker]

Definitely. Although I'd be looking for any excuse for another independence referendum 😉. The main problem you have with any vote of this kind is that a decent percentage of people are (for want of a better word) morons and will vote whichever way the BBC and other mainstream media outlets tell them to.

 

Sent from my SM-G928F using Tapatalk

 

 

[Ekona]

The main problem you have with any vote of this kind is that a decent percentage of people are (for want of a better word) morons and will vote whichever way the BBC and other mainstream media outlets tell them to.

That's 90% of the population, at least. I meet very, very few people with whom I can hold an intelligent debate about politics, or finance, or anything really. There's an awful lot of people who are just incredibly blinkered or naive about the wider world around them.

 

This place has a surprisingly high signal to noise ratio, which is pleasing. There's a good few forums I frequent where it's utterly painful to try and find anyone with even half an ounce of common sense!

[coldel]

Sub question. Should the people of the U.K. vote to leave, would the SNP be in a position to (and rightly so in my mind) demand a new independence referendum? And not just the Scots, there's the Welsh and Northern Irish assemblies who might feel they're better off as a part of Europe than they are a part of the U.K.

 

A significant constitutional change in the UK could trigger another demand for a referendum I believe - however this has to be approved by Westminster, and their stance was very much it was a once in a generation opportunity which in political years is what, 20 years?

 

Just something to bear in mind as well, that the price of oil since the Scottish referendum has absolutely plummeted by something like 40% (good news for V6 owners though!) and shows how volatile an economy reliant on Oil is.

[Stutopia]

No. No more so than England should be able to have a referendum to leave them behind and re-join the EU.

 

I see what you mean but, it's a YES or NO rather than a one of many, so the result won't be as nuanced as say the General Election. Also as England is by far and away the most populous, I'm making a (possibly flawed) working assumption that the overall UK vote result won't be different to whatever result of an England based vote would be (in a hypothetical country by country vote).

[Ekona]

Agreed, but turnout won't be anywhere near close enough to make a difference on those kind of figures. I reckon we'll be lucky to see 50%.

 

Nope, when you vote to stay with the UK you vote to do everything as the UK, not decide you don't like one thing they've done so you fancy another go.

[BobbyZ]

I've often argued that democracy is flawed, due to the lack of understanding (or downright stupidity) of many of the voters. It's only necessary to avoid the theoretical eventuality of an oppressive dictatorship. The argument that people should always vote because they have the right to is also fairly ridiculous IMO.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if the SNP manage to swing heavier weighting on Scottish votes anyway

[GappySmeg]

I'm far from decided right now, but loving the cut-and-thrust of discussion on this thread.

 

Have done a small amount of research so far and the recurring theme is the "outies" citing EU costs us x millions here, y millions there... whilst the "inies" are citing x BILLIONS of benefit here, y BILLIONS of trade opportunities there.

Far from convincing arguments either way but I do worry your average Sun reader can't comprehend that "millions" is peanuts in this context.

[Bockaaarck]

I will be voting to remain in the EU. In my view, despite some of the frustrations. The benefits of being within the EU are far more preferable.

 

The positive effect that membership has in terms trading partnerships, financial influence and cross continent business are for me, key benefits.

Edited February 23, 2016 by Bockaaarck

[glrnet]

Definitely. Although I'd be looking for any excuse for another independence referendum 😉. The main problem you have with any vote of this kind is that a decent percentage of people are (for want of a better word) morons and will vote whichever way the BBC and other mainstream media outlets tell them to.

 

Sent from my SM-G928F using Tapatalk

Yup, it's all very worrying, a reporter on tv yesterday questioning people in the street (can't remember where) about what they thought of Boris Johnson taking the "out" route. "Who is Boris Johnson?" was the reply. If that's the level of "awareness" then all we can do is hope these people don't vote at all imo.

[Sargara]

Just something to bear in mind as well, that the price of oil since the Scottish referendum has absolutely plummeted by something like 40% (good news for V6 owners though!) and shows how volatile an economy reliant on Oil is.

 

I was thinking about this too. I'm fairly sure a big portion of the SNP's economic plans revolved around "lol oil", you only have to look at what its doing to Russia to know Scotland would be in BIG trouble by now. So I'm slightly perplexed by Fish ladies demands for wanting another crack at it so soon?