You could well be right, but I would have expected a crack of that size to be straight and not elliptical. Of course, photos can be deceptive and it's difficult to get things in scale to but it just looks to me like an entry point at the bottom of pic 2...maybe a Stanley knife? Yes, it could have had a "blowover", but these usually bubble before they crack, any sign of bubbling?
That's another clue to its origin, I wouldn't expect cracked paint to lift both the primer and the undercoat to expose the metal underneath, not unless the metal was dirty when it was sprayed.
Pete